铜周报：铜价区间上沿回落 关键支撑区域震荡将加剧

2015524 1 / 15 021-58605291 www.htgwf.com | 2015-05-24 2015-05-24 铜价区间上沿回落 关键支撑区域震荡将加剧 5185221507930/2.02%46190/44610/229/3.58%150712.8/4.38% 44.6%2015/201651 5185225PMI 9 518522150714400044500/ 52275/LME5225.5/137.5/ LME5213308251400COMEX522222324452216263610521 LME3522338328180552222926015934CFTC51973598642579341825 1 IWCC52022.530.020151.8%21803.2%2252 2 2015202014201414.2 3 109 4 6101020151-43 5 105500030 | 2015524 2 / 15 1 2015-5-22 2015-5-21 LME3/ 6182 6264.5 -82.5 40 / 45110 45120 -10 30 LME/ 6176.5 6261.5 -85 -34 SMM1#/ 45230 45220 10 -880 LME/ -5.5 -3 -2.5 -74 SMM/ 75 90 -15 105 / 62.5 62.5 0 -10 BLOOMBERG 2 2015-5-22 2015-5-21 LME3 14434 10237 4197 153804 203548 -49744 BLOOMBERG 3 2015-5-22 2015-5-21 LME3 338328 340133 -1805 229260 245194 -15934 BLOOMBERG 4 CFTC 2015-5-19 2015-5-12 总持仓 179210 178077 1133 非商业多单持仓 73598 73722 -124 非商业空单持仓 64257 65206 -949 非商业净多持仓 9341 8516 825 BLOOMBERG 5 LME COPPER 2015-5-20 332225 120775 36.35% 83050 44800 145000 49900 104175 26075 2015-5-21 330825 117875 35.63% 80950 42700 146400 49550 103475 25625 -1400 -2900 -0.72% -2100 -2100 1400 -350 -700 -450 BLOOMBERG | 2015524 3 / 15 6 SHFE 2015-5-22 2015-5-15 总库存 162636 173157 -10521 BLOOMBERG 7 COMEX 2015-5-22 2015-5-21 总库存 22232 22188 44 BLOOMBERG 8 45260 45240 45240 45240 45210 45210 45210 45210 45150 45130 45130 45130 45210 45210 45210 45210 40 20 20 20 100 100 100 100 45180-45280/10/40/-110/ SMM40/-110/ 408504075040750/ 1#40600-40900/2#42200-42500/SMM | 2015524 4 / 15 1 2 6.26.356.56.656.86.957.17.257.47.557.7Aug-12Jan-13Jun-13Nov-13Apr-14Sep- 14Feb-15 6.26.356.56.656.86.957.17.257.47.557.7Aug-12Jan-13Jun-13Nov-13Apr-14Sep- 14Feb-15 812/1120/ 14CPI0.2%0.2%0.1%4CPI0.1%0.1%0.2%4CPI1.8%1.7%1.8%4CPI0.3%201310.2%0.2% 22%( 352242.49%1202.37%124105IPO 43476.05%4 | 2015524 5 / 15 ICSG 9 ICSG 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 2015 2014 2015 Jan-Feb Nov Dec Jan Feb World Mine Production 16053 16775 18265 18714 2987 3053 1550 1648 1607 1447 World Mine Capacity 19468 19964 20787 21734 3457 3622 1823 1892 1900 1723 Mine Capacity Utilization (% ) 82.5 84.0 87.9 86.1 86.4 84.3 85.0 87.1 84.6 84.0 Primary Refined Production 16132 16590 17239 18571 2887 2979 1562 1648 1551 1428 Secondary Refined Production 3468 3596 3803 3909 593 673 343 343 354 318 World Refined Production (Secondary+Primary) 19600 20186 21043 22479 3479 3652 1905 1991 1906 1746 World Refinery Capacity 24030 25077 26425 27352 4356 4489 2271 2352 2356 2133 Refineries Capacity Utilization (% ) 81.6 80.5 79.6 82.2 79.9 81.3 83.9 84.6 80.9 81.9 World Refined Usage 1/ 19705 20441 21370 22886 3627 3499 1967 1855 1875 1624 World Refined Stocks End of Period 1205 1376 1325 1339 1435 1509 1231 1339 1410 1509 Period Stock Change 7 171 52 14 110 171 12 108 72 99 Refined Balance 2/ 105 255 328 407 148 153 62 135 31 122 Seasonally Adjusted Refined Balance 3/ 193 115 8 30 34 81 Refined Balance Adjusted for Chinese bonded stock change 4/ 166 313 584 420 28 153 22 145 28 126 ICSG 10 ICSG20152144.71.83%20151-2305.44.55% ICSG20152174.63.50%20151-2365.24.58% ICSG20152162.43.68%20151-2349.93.26% WBMS201531310.96% 4113.59.24% 4152.92.14% 4144.844.66%64.79 | 2015524 6 / 15 80.04-1.52%10.26% 42423.88.34% 4106.65.86% WBMS324.441.05% 399.740.03% 3108.801.61% 4116.656.89% 318.9320.45% 33060321.19% 391.63.04% WBMS394.353.90%1-3254.010.45% 20154463.128.30%99211.3% 201541798.1211.33%4949.90.5%4616.222.81%4214.340.08% 20154207.970.59%175.415.20%32.5618.63% 20151-426384.57-4.8% 20151-435756.09-17.3% 20151-4599580.426.2% 20151-421209.94-10.5% 201542831.9012.90%4238210.50%1.27994.99%1401.030.61% 2015413.954.79%1-452.302.80% 20153132.2641.40%1-3300.8111.40% 2015460.356.81%1-4243.8511.87% 2015330.675.45%1-381.8618.24% 201531759825.88%1-3577774.00% 2015328.77-5.21%1-378.12-10.50% 2015459 WINDBLOOMBERG | 2015524 7 / 15 3 LME3 LME 3850 04090 04330 04570 04810 05050 05290 05530 05770