铜日报：铜价短期回调格局尚未转换，继续关注下方支撑

2015522 1 / 15 021-68755929 www.htgwf.com | 2015-05-22 2015-05-22 铜价短期回调格局尚未转换，继续关注下方支撑 1507170/45120/44850/45220/45140/160/0.78%6264.5/ 20155% 46.8%1-411.9%413514.7%45(WBMS)20151-317.9201424.4 45.1%11.4%1-41.3%1.1%,5PMI49.3 WBMS150744000--44500/ 52190/LME5203/137.5/ LME5203322252650COMEX521221883251517315710147 LME352134013320152124519420022CFTC512737226520685168968 1 4384.6%413514.7% 2 ICSG2175162212.213.115.314.8 3 WBMS20151-317.9201424.41-2209000 | 2015522 2 / 15 1 2015-5-21 2015-5-20 LME3/ 6264.5 6216 48.5 122.5 / 45120 44760 360 40 LME/ 6261.5 6210 51.5 51 SMM1#/ 45220 45120 100 -890 LME/ -3 -6 3 -71.5 SMM/ 90 100 -10 120 / 62.5 65 -2.5 -10 BLOOMBERG 2 2015-5-21 2015-5-20 LME3 10237 14216 -3979 203548 366894 -163346 BLOOMBERG 3 2015-5-21 2015-5-20 LME3 340133 340334 -201 245194 265216 -20022 BLOOMBERG 4 CFTC 2015-5-12 2015-5-5 总持仓 178077 166179 11898 非商业多单持仓 73722 63530 10192 非商业空单持仓 65206 63982 1224 非商业净多持仓 8516 -452 8968 BLOOMBERG 5 LME COPPER 2015-5-19 334875 123425 36.86% 84850 46600 145100 50000 104925 26825 2015-5-20 332225 120775 36.35% 83050 44800 145000 49900 104175 26075 -2650 -2650 -0.50% -1800 -1800 -100 -100 -750 -750 BLOOMBERG | 2015522 3 / 15 6 SHFE 2015-5-15 2015-5-8 总库存 173157 183304 -10147 BLOOMBERG 7 COMEX 2015-5-21 2015-5-20 总库存 22188 22156 32 BLOOMBERG 8 45250 45235 45235 45235 45200 45200 45200 45200 45140 45125 45125 45125 45200 45200 45200 45200 20 5 5 5 80 80 80 80 45160-45280/100/60/-120/ SMM60/-120/ 408504075040750/ 100/1#40600-40900/2#42200-42500/SMM | 2015522 4 / 15 1 2 6.26.356.56.656.86.957.17.257.47.557.7Aug-12Jan-13Jun-13Nov-13Apr-14Sep- 14Feb-15 6.26.356.56.656.86.957.17.257.47.557.7Aug-12Jan-13Jun-13Nov-13Apr-14Sep- 14Feb-15 791/1087/ 15PMI49.149.3PMI48.948.41346.864PMI48.9 25MarkitPMI53.82014154.5201415365MarkitPMI55455.3Markit5201412( 35PMI52.3135201245PMI51.43PMI49.312 4GFMS2015905051/906126/3%6%64000-50001059000201442015105116123-460201540 & | 2015522 5 / 15 ICSG 9 ICSG 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 2015 2014 2015 Jan Oct Nov Dec Jan World Mine Production 16,053 16,775 18,265 18,707 1,536 1,624 1,610 1,547 1,646 1,624 World Mine Capacity 19,468 19,964 20,787 21,734 1,813 1,900 1,877 1,823 1,892 1,900 Mine Capacity Utilization (% ) 82.5 84.0 87.9 86.1 84.7 85.5 85.8 84.9 87.0 85.5 Primary Refined Production 16,132 16,590 17,239 18,581 1,481 1,562 1,624 1,565 1,649 1,562 Secondary Refined Production 3,468 3,596 3,803 3,909 301 351 344 343 343 351 World Refined Production (Secondary+Primary) 19,600 20,186 21,043 22,490 1,782 1,913 1,968 1,908 1,992 1,913 World Refinery Capacity 24,030 25,077 26,425 27,352 2,286 2,356 2,342 2,271 2,352 2,356 Refineries Capacity Utilization (% ) 81.6 80.5 79.6 82.2 77.9 81.2 84.0 84.0 84.7 81.2 World Refined Usage 1/ 19,705 20,456 21,386 22,886 1,924 1,854 1,998 1,966 1,854 1,854 World Refined Stocks End of Period 1,205 1,376 1,325 1,353 1,340 1,428 1,250 1,243 1,353 1,428 Period Stock Change 7 171 -51 28 16 74 30 -8 110 74 Refined Balance 2/ -105 -270 -344 -396 -142 59 -30 -57 138 59 Seasonally Adjusted Refined Balance 3/ -149 53 -59 0 32 53 Refined Balance Adjusted for Chinese bonded stock change 4/ -166 298 -600 -409 -90 56 -64 -17 148 56 ICSG 10 ICSG20151162.48.27%20141-121839.88.27% ICSG20151191.35.98%20141-122261.75.98% ICSG20151185.43.99%20141-122306.97.10% WBMS201521310.96% 392.62.53% 4152.92.14% 4144.844.66%64.79 | 2015522 6 / 15 80.04-1.52%10.26% 31583.7-9.37% 4106.65.86% WBMS223.383.99% 399.740.03% 3108.801.61% 3160.4110.64% 318.9320.45% 33060321.19% 287.91.90% WBMS273.990.41%1-2159.661.49% 20154463.128.30%99211.3% 201541798.1211.33%3810.509.00%4616.222.81%4214.340.08% 20154207.970.60%175.415.20%32.5618.60% 20151-426384.57-4.8% 20151-435756.09-17.3% 20151-4599580.426.2% 20151-421209.94-10.5% 201532788.7012.90%4238210.50%1.27994.99%1401.030.61% 2015413.954.79%1-452.302.80% 20153132.2641.40%1-3300.8111.40% 2015460.356.81%1-4243.8511.87% 2015330.675.45%1-381.8618.24% 201531759825.88%1-3577774.00% 2015328.77-5.21%1-378.12-10.50% 2015459 WINDBLOOMBERG | 2015522