亚洲经济分析：2018年展望：亚洲出口型经济体面临资本开支方面的新利好

2017年11月26日 亚洲经济分析 研究报告2018年展望：亚洲出口型经济体面临资本开支方面的新利好  2018年亚洲出口型经济体（韩国、台湾、马来西亚、新加坡）前景依然良好，实际增速将保持在个位数中段。我们的贸易模型显示，尽管中国资本开支放缓，全球资本开支增长和新兴经济体货币总体走强有望带动外需强劲。此外，亚洲科技产品出口构成显示，资本开支向高科技和无形支出倾斜的新趋势愈发突出，应会有利于亚洲的科技产品出口型经济体。倘若资本开支增速像前几轮周期经常出现的那样高于预期，明年亚洲出口型经济体增速有望加快（但这并非我们的基本假设）。  2018年内需形势应会更为有利。我们预计大多数经济体的消费增速将因福利支出和工资增长而好于去年。各经济体的特殊因素可能会导致资本开支情况走势不一，其中马来西亚、新加坡和泰国的资本开支增速将放缓但依然强劲，韩国资本开支增速将放缓，台湾将走弱。虽然经常项目顺差应会随着内需走强而有所下降，但顺差幅度可能依然庞大（包括马来西亚，若油价持续高企则该国将会收益）。  随着经济体中的过剩产能减少，我们预计通胀压力将随着经济扩张而小幅上升，油价上涨和大多数亚洲出口型经济体的工资上涨和增税将令这一情形加剧。我们预计各经济体央行将在经济增长稳健、通胀上行和美国利率持续上升之际开始加息，首先是韩国将很快采取行动，随后马来西亚和台湾在2018年、泰国在2019年。倘若决策层对于金融状况失衡的担忧加剧，则利率可能会上升至高于预期的水平。在这样的宏观背景下以及在大选等特殊因素影响下，亚洲出口型经济体的货币应会总体走强。  在各项风险因素中，我们不再认为美联储加息是一项不稳定因素，因为亚洲出口型经济体的对外贸易净差额走强，资本流入相对少于新兴经济体，而且欧元区和日本的货币状况仍十分宽松。贸易保护主义仍是一项潜在的结构性不利因素，但目前看似一项较低风险，而北朝鲜相关的地缘政治风险也在逐渐减弱。我们认为亚洲出口型经济体面临的一项较大风险是通胀上升和 中国政策平衡过程中拿捏失当。 Goohoon Kwon, CFA +852-2978-0048 | goohoon.kwon@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 Irene Choi +82(2)3788-1722 | irene.choi@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司首尔分公司 Nupur Gupta +65-6654-5538 | nupur.x.gupta@gs.com 高盛（新加坡）私人公司 李真男 +852-2978-6128 | zhennan.li@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 andrew.tilton@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅www.gs.com/research/hedge.html。 高盛集团 全球投资研究 Asia exporters had solid and stronger-than-expected growth in 2017 due to improvingactivity of major trading partners. Domestic demand was also robust in mosteconomies, supported by government spending and job creation. Our aggregate CAI forfive export economies, including Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand,shows 5.4% growth in October on a 3-month moving average basis up from 4.4% inJuly and real GDP growth of 3.0% for Q2 (USD GDP weighted) (Exhibit 1). Core inflationremained benign at below 2%, with no policy rate hike this year, as expected.Strong exports outlook on a global capex upturn The outlook for Asia exporters should remain positive in 2018 given the ongoingexpansion of the world economy.1The GS macro research team expects globaleconomic growth to accelerate to 4.0% next year, notably higher than consensus, froman estimated 3.7% this year (see our “As Good As It Gets”, Global Economics Analyst,November 15, 2017). All three major DM economies, the United States, the Euro Areaand Japan look set to continue to grow above potential rates. In particular, US growth islikely to accelerate to 2.5% in 2018 from 2.2% this year, on favorable financialconditions, tax cuts and post-hurricane reconstruction. EM growth will likely accelerateon recovery in India, Brazil and Russia, while we expect the Chinese economy to slowagain, to 6.5%, after a modest rebound to 6.8% this year from 6.7% in 2016. 1Exports of these five economies exceed 40% of their respective GDPs, higher than other economies in theregion including China, Japan, India, Indonesia and the Philippines.Exhibit 1: Activity of Asia exporters has recently rebounded along with global cyclical strength01234567890123456789201220132014201520162017CAI (EMAsia)CAI (DM)CAI (Asia exporters)Real GDP (Asia exporters)Percent change, annualized Percent change, annualized Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research26 November 20172Goldman SachsAsia Economics Analyst For our five export economies, we expect exports to remain strong in 2018, growing inmid-single digits in real terms though with modest deceleration. Demand from DM willlikely be robust, especially US demand, although uncertainties seem to persist on theimpact of trade protectionism (see “Implications of possible US trade protectionism onproduction in Asia”, Asia Economics Analyst, Jan 20, 2017). Demand from EM will alsolikely remain strong on positive spillover from DM growth and broad EM currencystrength, despite slowing Chinese capex. Our projections show a robust export outlookfor EM Asia next year, with growth outperforming other regions and slightly moreoptimistic than those of multilateral institutions and our regional trade model based onactivity of trade partners (GDP and capex) (Exhibit 2).The return of a global capex up-cycleAsian exporters should benefit from a global capex upturn. The global capex cycle hasbeen improving, especially in the United States. Our macro team forecasts entail anacceleration in global capex from 3.1% in 2017 to 4.6% in 2018 (PPP-weighted), in partboosted by sold capex growthin the United States exceeding the late-cycle norm of3-4%, and despite a capex slowdown in China from 5.1% in 2017 to 4.6% in 2018(Exhibit 3). Given that capex tends to overshoot expectations during inflection periodsboth on the upside and the downside, capex growth could surprise on the upside if theglobal economy remains on a solid expansion path as currently reflected in consensusexpectations (see GS Capex Tracker: Light at the End of the Capex Tunnel, October 30,2017). Capex tends to boost trade more than consumption does, given its relatively highimports contents (see “T