铁路行业复兴：中国中车H股评级从卖出上调至买入，并加入强力买入名单（摘要）

我们建议投资者增持中国铁路装备股，因为我们认为2016-17年的下行周期已经结束 -在这一下行阶段，该板块的每股盈利增速仅为4%，股价也下跌了5%，表现平均较MSCI中国指数落后了30%。我们预计新订单将自2018年下半年加速增长，由此所开启的上行周期将持续至2020年，推动因素包括：到2020年，国内高铁和地铁的运营里程以及铁路装备保有量将增长近50%，同时1.动车组也将陆续向复兴号升级，我们预计利润率较高的维修和零部件业务需求将随之增长； 高铁完工里程将在2018-20年迎来上行周期（新订单较此领先6-12个月），增幅分2.别为2,259/3,181/4,994公里；一带一路战略逐渐发力，相关的动车组业务将开始在2019-20年贡献盈利，且新加3.坡-马来西亚、匈牙利-塞尔维亚、俄罗斯、泰国等高铁项目有望带来大订单；预计2019-20年期间，随着产能利用率的回升以及原材料价格压力的缓解，公司利4.润率将有所改善。考虑到以上因素以及我们新的中车H股12个月目标价（从5.7港元上调至9.5港元）对应的上行空间为34%，我们将中车H股评级从卖出上调至买入。鉴于公司业务前景将迎来拐点以及H股估值具有吸引力（2018年预期市盈率较A股折让49%），我们还将中车H股加入强力买入名单。对于中车A，因我们认为其估值已经较为合理，我们将该股评级从卖出上调至中性。杜茜(分析师)执业证书编号:S1420511100001+86(21)2401-8948|jacqueline.du@ghsl.cn北京高华证券有限责任公司中国 机械铁路行业复兴 － 中国中车H股评级从卖出上调至买入，并加入强力买入名单 (摘要)2017年12月11日 | 5:20AM CST证券研究报告北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。 Down-cycle of past two years likely behind us3Now positive on China’s rail equipment sector; Buy CRRC H(on CL), CRSC5Driver 1: High-speed rail & subway installed base to expand 47% by 2020E9Driver 2: Domestic new tracks completion to see upcycle in 2018-20E20Driver 3: Belt & Road MU not a far away concept now25Driver 4: Utilization recovering with some OP leverage29Key risks30CRRC H/A (1766.HK/601766.SS): Rebound in sight; CRRC H to Buy (on CL), CRRC A to Neutral fromSell33CRSC (3969.HK): Expect valuations to re-rate on industry upturn; reiterate Buy36Zhuzhou CRRC (3898.HK): Better outlook but more priced in than peers; to Buy from Neutral40New Hongtai (603016.SS): Initiate at Neutral on stable OEM business, Tianyi deal in focus43Appendix: M&Aranking table47信息披露附录482017年12月11日2全球投资研究中国 机械目录 Down-cycle of past two years likely behind usDuring the 2016-2017 down-cycle, consensus EPS growth forecasts fell repeatedly forChina’s three rolling stock companies, slowing to an average of 4% from 28% in2010-2015. This was mainly due to the fact that domestic multiple units (MU) tenderingcontinued to disappoint on the downside: 2016 saw a full year of drained tendering untillate December when 110 standard sets were tendered, resulting in a total of 136 tendersin 2016, which is substantially lower than the 2014-2015 average of 427. In 2017, thisweakness continued amid multiple batches of small-sized MU tendering.Correspondingly, share prices for CRRC (A/H) and Zhuzhou CRRC dropped/stayedflattish by -9%/-26%/-5% per annum during those two years, underperforming MSCIChina by a hefty c.30% p.a. (MSCI China up 43% since start of 2016).图表 1: We expect 2H2018 to kick off a new order/backlog upcycleCRRC key segments new orders and backlog forecast, in Rmb mnCatalysts/Key things to watch in 2018Jan-18CRC annual working conference with operational/rail construction targetsMar-18CRRC/ZZCRRC/CRSC FY17 results and FY18 guidance; FY4Q17 likely to recover from low baseApr-18CRRC/ZZCRRC/CRSC FY1Q18 continue to recover from low base2H-18High speed rail domestic MU ordersOthersGovernment's action plan/policy on advanced manufacturing with rail especially new "Fuxing" train a top focusBelt & Road initiative progress and key oversea MU ordersSubway orders trend050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000 - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,0002011201220132014201520162017E2018E2019E2020EHigh speed train domestic order (LHS)Subway train domestic order (LHS)Locomotive domestic order (LHS)High speed train oversea order (LHS)Subway train oversea order (LHS)Locomotive oversea order (LHS)Backlog (RHS)Inflection Rmb mn Rmb mn 资料来源：Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research2017年12月11日3全球投资研究中国 机械 Worst is over, 2018-2020E a new order/backlog upcycle followed by an earningsrecovery in 2019-2020EWe believe the worst is likely over and we expect CRRC’s backlog to hit trough byend-2017, and new orders to kick off an upcycle from 2H2018E, driven by:图表 2: 2016-2017 marked a down-cycle for China’s three rolling stock companies; EPS growth slowed to an average of 4%,down from 28% in 2010-2015...EPS actual forecast and share price performance (CRRC/Zhuzhou CRRC/CRSC)EPS growth CAGR (2010-2015, 2016-2017E, and 2018-2020E)Price performance and TP implied upside/downside-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2010-20152016-2017E2018-2020ECRRCZhuzhou CRRCCRSCAverage of 28% CAGR Average of 4% CAGR Average of 21% CAGR -20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2010-2015return perannum2016-ytd returnper annumTPup/downside(12 months)CRRC (A)Zhuzhou CRRCCRSCCRRC (H)资料来源：Company data, Datastream, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates图表 3: ...with consensus EPS continuing to see downward revisionsShare price performance vs. Bloomberg consensus EPS estimate revisionShare price performance vs. Bloomberg EPS consensus revision - 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 - 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17CRRC H price (LHS)CRRC H Bloomberg EPS consensus revision (RHS) 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.46 - 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00CRSC price (LHS)CRSC Bloomberg