中国房地产：7月国研网投资进一步走弱，土地供应制约成交量

China PropertyJulNBS:InvestmentFurtherWeakens;LandSupplyConstrainsVolumes JulNBS:widenedstarts&REIdecline-Jul-alone:[1]Starts-28%yoy(Jun:-26%), +852-2501-2438grffin.chan@citi.comCindy Li thelargestYTDdrop,to35msmGFA.[2] Completion-19%(Jun:-25%)to20msmGFA.Both starts and completion have retreated to around Jul-2003 level.[3] REl -27%(Jul:-24%),thelargestYTDdecline.[4]Primary/secondarypricesstabilizingatT1cities (flat/+0.2%mom)andat narroweryoydecreaseacross all tier of cities; [5]Residential sales-9%yoy (Jul-12%),GFA sold-15% (Jul-13%).[6] Completed butunsoldinventory-0.8%yoy&inventorywithin3years-3.6%.[7]CREiS300-citiesJun land sales GFA/value-25%/-13%(Jun:-14%/-18%);MoF1H26land salesrevenue-31%yoy.Macro cooler in Jul:export decelerates (+24%in Uss),inflationmoderates(CPI+0.5%,PPI+3.5%),newRmbloanturnednegativeinlowseason(Rmb340bn),retailslows(+0.6%,Jun+1.0%),andsoftFAl(-10%) +852-2501-2710cindy.li@citi.com Primarymarketdownsizingon21-yearlowland supply-Land saleslikelyhittinga new low since2005,after7M26land salesvalue/GFA-32%/-27%yoy,bringinglikelyfurtherdownsizeinnational primarymarket(sales&construction),in ourview.Wereckontherecoveryinsalesvolumeandpricestabilizationremainsconcentratedin a handful of cities; we estimate the 6key cities accounted for only 5-6%of newhomesalesnationallyandc.10%oflandssoldin300cities. 29outof50citiespostednewhomesalesgrowthinJul-(i)Newhomevolumein50citiesonlydown4%yoyin July(perProptech),and29cities(60%)wereatgrowth,ledbyT1&T3cities,whileT2citieswasdraggedbylesslaunches.Sell-throughwasmom stableat33%&high-end units at coredistrict in core cities continued to sellwell (e.g. HZ,SZ, CQ, Suzhou, etc.). (ii) Secondary volume in Jul +9%yoy across 18cities (per WIND), led by T1 cities +14%yoy,and listings was flat mom.The weeklyvolumeof25kunitsishealthy(5%above2025avg)duringatypicallyslowsummerdeclines.Forlisted names,we expect leaders will see sales growth accelerating inAug,andmorenamescouldturntoyoyincrease(7M26:5atgrowth). Policy:focus on downside protection,not the upside—[1] Jul Poliburo (3O-Jul)called to strengthen the safeguards against riskandto stabilize propertymarket; weview focus is on risk-prevention aftera tone-down.[2] Urban renewal progressingafterPresidentXivisitto Shanghaiinmid-Jul,withcentralgovernmentinvestmentofRmb257bn(+Rmb42bnyoy,incl.Rmb160bnultra-long-termspecialCGB)in‘26E;[3]StateCouncil (13-Jul)approvedthe15thFive-Year plan for expanding consumptionand recognizedhousing consumption and householdwealthaspivotal. PositionforsalesgrowthandpickupinlaunchesfromSep;lookthroughweak1Hearnings-Ourpositivesectorviewisbackedby:(1)likelystabilizing salesgrowthin3Q26onresilienttransactionvolumesincorecitiesandafavorablelowbase;(2)a stronger newlaunch pipelinefrom Sep.Physical marketactivityremains stable in3Q,1H26earningsweaknessis slightlybetterthan investors'bearishexpectations,while guidance on sales &margin could be supportive.As such,we are positive onthesectorinAug-Oct.Toppicks:CRL,C&D,Beike,Jinmao,COLl.Weturned morepositiveonC&DfromJunafteritsproductupgradesandacceleratedlandbanking. SeeAppendixA-1forAnalystCertification,ImportantDisclosuresandResearchAnalystAffiliations. Notfordistribution inthePeople's RepublicofChina,excludingtheHongKong Special Administrative Regionand QualifiedForeign Institutional Investors. Jul NBS:Investment Further Weakens;Land Supply Constrains Volumes Source:NBS,CitiResearch 2026 Citigroup Inc.No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.Source:CREIS,CitiResearchEstimates 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.Source:MoF,Citi ResearchEstimates Ministryof Financegovernmentlandsalesrevenue NewHomeInventory(CRiC80-cities) 2026 Citigroup Inc.No redistribution without Citigroup's written permissionSource:NBS,Citi Research of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS +1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 Theresearchanalystsprimarilyresponsibleforthepreparation andcontentofthis research reportareeither(i)designated by"Acintheauthorblockor(i)listed inboldalongsidecontentwhichis attributabletothatanalyst.IfmultipleACanalysts are designatedinthe authorblock,each analystis certifyingwithrespecttotheentireresearchreportotherthan(a)contentattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystlistedinboldalongsidethecontentand (b)viewsexpressedsolelywithrespecttoaspecificissuerwhichareattributabletoanotherAC certifyinganalystidentifiedinthepricechartsorratinghistorytablesforthatissuershownbelow.Eachoftheseanalystscertify,withrespecttothesectionsofthereportforwhichtheyareresponsible:(1)thattheviewsexpressedthereinaccuratelyreflecttheirpersonalviewsabouteachissuerandsecurityreferencedandwerepreparedinan independentmanner,includingwithrespecttoCitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.and itsaffiliates;and (2)nopartoftheresearchanalyst'scompensationwas,is,orwill be,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressed bythatresearchanalystinthisre