7月经济数据不及预期，焦点转向政策支持

JulyActivitvUnderwhelms.ShiftingFocustoPolicy Support ChiefEconomist+852-2203-6139 China's July economic print highlights a widening divergence between strongexports and sluggish domestic demand.Our estimates indicate that real GDPgrowthmoderated to4.1%YoY in Julyfrom4.4% in June, staying belowthe full-year target of 4.5%-5.0%. While export growth remained strong, domestic activityindicators-including retail sales,fixed assetinvestment,and both manufacturingand services output-all softened in tandem. The mild property price rebound inTier-1citieshasnotactivatedbroadermarkets,leavingtotalsalesandinvestmenthovering at cyclical lows. Economist+852-2203-6166 Followingthepro-growthpivot at theJulyPolitburomeeting,thenext1-2months represent a criticalwindow for policysupport.Initial policyannouncements include the deployment of RMB 80o billion in policy-basedfinancial instruments, and property easing measures in select cities. Lookingahead, we continue to anticipate a significant acceleration in government bondissuanceandfiscal expendituretosupportdemand.Additionally,thePBOCwilllikelydeployitsstructural monetarypolicytools to boostlendingrelatedtoservices spending and investment into the"six networks". Economicactivity softened further across theboard inJuly,reflecting acombination of subdued domestic demand and disruptions from typhoonweather. mid-Julynotonlycontributedto slowerexport growthbut alsodisrupteddomestic logistics and manufacturing operations, leading to broad-baseddecelerationacrossmostindustries.Specialequipment andelectrical machinerywerenotableexceptions,withgrowthacceleratingby2.6ppt and 1.8ppt,respectively,likely supported by continuedstrength in high-tech manufacturing segments such as robotics,batteries, and NEVs. Meanwhile, communication devices and electroniccomponentsremainedstandoutperformers,withgrowthrising3.4pptto19.1% YoY, underscoring sustained Al-related demand. markets weighed onfinancial sector activity,with financialservicesgrowth slowing by 0.4ppt to 6.3% YoY YTD. Travel-related services alsomoderatedastransportationnetworksweredisruptedbythetyphoon.Incontrast, internet and telecommunications services remained strong,posting 10.6% YoY YTD growth. Retail sales slowed by 0.4ppt to 0.5% YoY.Communication devices werethe only category to record faster growth, accelerating by 3.9ppt to 20.4%YoY, while home appliance sales also rebounded, with the declineexperienced slower growth,suggesting that consumer sentimentremained subdued despite lower energy prices. Fixed asset investmentweakenedby2.8pptto-12.8%YoY.Typhoondisruptions likely delayed construction activity and project execution.Meanwhile, fiscal support remained limited, as government borrowingandspending continuedtolag,weighingon investmentinpublicprojects. rch.Wind urce:DeutscheBank Research,Wind The property sector weakened further in July, with both prices and salesactivitydecliningona MoMbasis.Nevertheless,the recoverymomentumin top-tier cities has largely been sustained. Secondary hometransactions in thefourtier-1 cities remained robustthroughQ2 and July,while transaction prices recorded a sixth consecutive month of MoMgains. Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Wind Labor market remained stable.Unemployment rate roseby 0.2ppt to5.2%, in line with seasonality. Weekly working hours stayed unchanged at48.2hr/w. China Macro China Macro Appendix 1 The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersignedleadanalyst(s)hasnotandwillnotreceiveanycompensationforprovidingaspecificrecommendation orview in this report.Deyun Ou, Yi Xiong, Ph.D. Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.OtherinformationissourcedfromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies, and other sources.For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FiCCDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk andconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investorsarestronglyencouragedto reviewthisinformationbefore investing China Macro The informationand opinions inthisreport werepreparedbyDeutscheBankAG or oneof its affiliates (collectively Deutsche Bank').Thoughthe information herein is believed tobe reliable and has beenobtained from public sourcesbelievedtobereliable,DeutscheBankmakesnorepresentationastoitsaccuracyorcompleteness.Hyperlinkstothird-party websites in this report are provided forreader convenience only.Deutsche Bank neither endorses thecontentnorisresponsiblefortheaccuracyorsecuritycontrolsof thosewebsites.If youusetheservicesof Deutsche Bankin connection witha purchase or saleof a securitythat isdiscussed inthis report, or is included or discussed in another co