东盟五国钢铁部门 脱碳与绿色需求  

ASEAN-5 Steel SectorDecarbonizationand Green Demand Balancing capacity expansion with a low-emissions transition Authors and Acknowledgments Authors Hylla BarbosaXiyuan LiuHao Wu Authors listed alphabetically. All authors from RMI unless otherwise noted. Contacts Hylla Barbosa,hbarbosa@rmi.orgXiyuan Liu,xliu@rmi.orgHao Wu,hwu@rmi.org Copyrights and CitationXiyuan Liu, Hylla Barbosa, and Hao Wu,ASEAN-5 Steel Sector Decarbonization and Green Demand: Bal- ancing capacity expansion with a low-emissions transition, RMI, 2026,https://rmi.org/resources/asean-5-steel-sector-decarbonization-and-green-demand. RMI values collaboration and aims to accelerate the energy transition through sharing knowledge andinsights. We therefore allow interested parties to reference, share, and cite our work through the CreativeCommons CC BY-SA 4.0 license.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/. All images used are from iStock.com unless otherwise noted. Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank SEAISI, Climate Catalyst, and their RMI colleagues TJ Conway, Wenjuan Liu,Iliad Lubis, Trang Bui, and Ariane Desrosiers for their technical review and feedback. About RMI Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) is an independent, nonpartisan nonprofit founded in 1982 that transformsglobal energy systems through market-driven solutions to secure a prosperous, resilient, clean energyfuture for all. In collaboration with businesses, policymakers, funders, communities, and other partners,RMI drives investment to scale clean energy solutions, reduce energy waste, and boost access to affordableclean energy in ways that enhance security, strengthen the economy, and improve people’s livelihoods. RMIis active in over 50 countries. Table of Contents Executive Summary.............................4 ASEAN-5’s Growth Trajectory Will Drive Sustained Steel Demand..5 A region of structural growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5Domestic demand for crude steel through 2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5Emerging growth sectors drive new demand opportunities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 ASEAN-5 Steel Is at a Crossroads: Ensuring Capacity Expansionwithout Carbon Lock-In. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 A production portfolio shifting toward BF-BOF lock-in. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9Future steel demand does not automatically justify new BF-BOF capacity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11Excess capacity is a regional and global concern..................................11More than half of future demand is compatible with scrap-based EAF pathway...............12Emerging near-zero steel demand strengthens the case for cleaner capacity choices..........13Sizing near-zero steel demand in ASEAN-5......................................13 Securing Metallic Inputs for a Low-Emissions Steel Transition. .15 Scrap supply is the core constraint on scaling scrap EAF pathway. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15Building stronger domestic recycling systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17Green iron as the balancing lever for clean primary steelmaking......................18 The Remaining Existing Challenge: Relining a Young BF Fleet. . .19 Market Architecture and Enabling Drivers. . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 Carbon accounting and market infrastructure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22Lessons learned from existing international carbon accounting standards and methodologies.....24Green market activation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26ETS and the importance of MRV harmonization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26Low-emissions product definition...........................................27 Summary of Recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29 For policymakers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29For NGOs, research institutions, and industry associations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29 Endnotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31 Executive Summary ASEAN-5 — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam — is entering a critical period forsteel sector development. Rapid urbanization, infrastructure expansion, industrial growth, and emergingsectors such as EVs, renewable energy, and data centers are expected to drive significant increases insteel demand over the coming decades. Decisions made today will determine whether this demand is metthrough conventional blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) expansion or through a combination oflow-emissions production pathways, including greater use of electric arc furnace (EAF)–based steelmaking,increased scrap utilization, and clean metallic input