关于DR001为核心的货币政策框架转型研究

A framework in transition The shift to a DRoo1-centric framework could improve policytransmissionandfundingstability,whilelimitingscopeforsignificantly easier money market conditions. The PBoCremainsaccommodative,butisunlikelytocutrates/RRRs.Instead, it prefers targeted credit easing and liquidity tools. +8522903 2653yingke.zhou@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong KongYing Zhang +85229032652ying.zhang3@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong What is the key message from PBoC quarterly report?The PBoC released its latest Quarterly Monetary Policy Report overnight (12 August). Rather than themonetary policy stance itself, we believe thekey policy development is the formaltransition from a DR007-centric frameworkto a DRo011-centric framework.This shift reflects thefact that overnight repos now account for more than 90% of money market repo tradingvolume, making overnight funding the primary liquidity management tool forfinancialinstitutions.We think the newframework could improve policytransmission andfundingmarket stability. Jian Chang+852 29032654jian.chang@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong As highlighted in the report,thePBoC explicitly stated that:"Since2025, the operationaltargethas graduallyshifted fromDR007toDR001,andsince2026 the PBoC hasbeen sendinga clearersignal that the target rate is the overnight rate (DRo01)." This is the first systematic confirmationthat DRoo1 has become the PBoC's effective operating target, bringing China's monetary policyframework closerto those of major central banks thatfocus on overnightfundingrates. Thesupportingmeasures,first announcedby GovernorPan Gongshengat theLujiazui Forum inJune, have now been formally incorporated into the policy framework: .Theinterest-rate corridorhas been narrowed from an asymmetric-20bpto+50bp range(previous: 1.2-1.9%) around the policy rate to a symmetric ±25bp corridor (current: 1.15-1.65%). .The PBoC has clarified the intervention trigger,with temporary repo operations activatedwhen DR001 persistently moves outside the corridor (1.15-1.65%). .The framework reform has begun to extend to loan pricing, with the PBoC report noting thatsome loans are alreadybeingpricedusing DRo01 as a benchmark. Overall,weviewthisas a meaningful steptowardamore market-based andtransparentoperating framework, with DRoo1 increasingly serving as the key policy anchor for China'smoney markets. Whataretheimplicationsforthe market? Wethink the implicationsforthe rates market are twofold.On the onehand, DRoo1 is now moreclearly established as the PBoC's key policy anchor, while the narrowerinterest-rate corridor Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning onpage 4. becomemorestableandpredictable.Onthe otherhand,amore rules-basedoperatingframework effectivelyplaces afirmerfloor under overnight rates.We believe thelikelihood of DRoo1 trading persistently and materiallybelow the 7-day reverse repo rate (currently 1.40%) has diminished. In other words, whilefunding conditions should remain stable, the scope for significantly easier money-marketconditions is now more limited. What is the PBoC's overall stance?The PBoC Monetary Policy Report shows that central bank will remain accommodative, with the report re-emphasised that the PBoC will"continue to implement an appropriatelyaccommodativemonetarypoilcyand pledgesto"comprehensivelydeployand timelyadjustmonetarypolicytools"（综合运用并适时调整货币政策工具），tomaintain"ampleliquidity"andto"intensify countercyclical supports." WillthePBoCcutpolicyratesandRRRin2026? Despite the accommodative stance, we believe the Q2 PBoC Monetary Policy Report suggeststhat the central bank remains in no rush to cut policy rates orthe RRR. Therefore, we continueto expect policy rates to remain unchanged throughout 2026.Notably,thelatest quarterlyreport again made no reference to policy rateor RRR cuts,markingthe second consecutivereport this year without such guidance. By contrast, the PBoC explicitly signaled these high-profileeasingmeasures inboth the Q1 andQ425reports,and the RRR cut andpolicyrate cutdelivered in May2025. Whilethe recent strength of the RMB has eased some of the constraints on monetaryeasing,webelieve the record-low level of banks'net interest margins (NiMs) limits the room forfurther ratecuts. Historically,banks'NiMs tend to move in tandem with policyrates,as lending rates, whichare linked to the LPR,typically repricelower soon after policyrate cuts.Deposit rates,however,tendto declinemore slowly and bya smallermagnitude due to intense competition fordeposits, resulting in NIM compression. In our view,the authorities'focus on protecting banks'NiMs reflects two key considerations.First,maintaining reasonable bank profitability ensures that banks retain a sufficient earningsbuffer, which serves as the first line of defense against potential NPL losses. Second, preserving smooth transmission of monetary policyto the real economy. The latest PBoC Monetary Policy Report suggests that the central b