Glencore CEO与CFO路演反馈：催化剂在即，买入评级

RatingBuy Company Update EuropeUnited Kingdom Metals & MiningMetals & Mining CEO & CFO roadshow feedback:catalysts ahead. Buy Valuation & Risks Liam FitzpatrickResearch Analyst+44-20-754-13233 Feedback from meetings with senior management We recently hosted a series of investor meetings with Glencore’s CEO, Gary Nagle,and CFO, Steve Kalmin, following the H1’26 interim results. In summary, operationsareperforming well,particularly Marketing,the copper growth strategy isprogressing to plan and the proposed ASX listing should be a positive catalyst laterthis year. We continue to see a compelling bottom-up story for Glencore: near-termprogress on divestments should lead to higher shareholder returns; coppervolumes should lift materially over the next 12-18 months (little in the price for this);and we believe RIO merger talks could be revived at some stage, potentially onceboth companies have made progress on divestments. Bastian SynagowitzResearch Analyst+41-44-227-3377 Cody HaydenResearch Analyst+44-20-754-13230 ASX listing - rationaleAs part of the interims, GLEN announced plans to apply for a secondary listing on the ASX (via CDIs), with admission targeted for October 2026 (GLC.AX). Thecompany believes this will unlock access to a deep and growing investor base witha strong understanding of the mining sector at minimal additional cost. The ASX hasstraightforward index inclusion rules, with the company aiming to achieve ASX 200inclusion within its first 12-months (requiring a free-float MC of A$1.5bn), ASX 100(A$5.5bn) shortly thereafter and potentially ASX 50 at a later stage.Why now?Management highlighted an easing in ESG-related pressures on coal-exposedcompanies and strong demand from Australian investors. We see two positivesfrom the proposed secondary listing: (1) over time, Glencore could capture a highermultiple, with the ASX trading at a substantial premium to the FTSE and a lack ofcopper options in the Australian market; and (2) it could facilitate a future mergerwith RIO through greater investor familiarity and increased shareholder overlap.Management was clear that the company isnot considering a spin-out of the coaldivision. Management also reiterated its view that amerger with RIOremainsstrategically compelling given the combined group's scale, synergy potential andgrowth profile. The DRC 40% stake sale and other disposals On 3 Feb, Glencore and the Orion Critical Mineral Consortium (Orion) announced anon-binding MoU in relation to a potential acquisition by Orion of a 40% stake inGlencore’s interests in its twoDRCcopper/cobalt assets, Mutanda and KCC. Thetransaction is expected to imply a combined enterprise value for the two mines of"around $9bn" (100% basis), implying a valuation for GLEN’s stakes of ~$7bn 10 August 2026Metals & MiningGlencore (Glencore owns 95% of Mutanda and 70% of KCC) and cash proceeds to GLEN of~$2.5-3.0bn. The company remains on track to finalise terms later this year,although US travel restrictions have delayed the process by sereral months.Management highlighted that there could be upside to the $9bn EV figure providedin February, given strong operational performance and higher copper prices. An exitfromKazzinc remains a possibility.Regarding the equity stake in Bunge,management indicated it would not rush a sale, with the primary objective being adisposal to a strategic buyer. Collahuasi: grade recovery and potential QB combination The Collahuasi mine is a key component behind Glencore’s production recoveringto >900 kt in 2027 and 1 mt in 2028. Management expects the grade uplift to startto come through at the end of this year and for the asset to return to full productionlevels by 2028. As also indicated by Anglo, the restrictions on the desalination plantare expected to be resolved by the end of this year. On a potential combination withQB, Glencore has three main pre-conditions: (1) full confidence in the QB tailingsfacility; (2) an appropriate sharing of synergies to reflect Collahuasi’s larger andhigher grade reserve base; and (3) equal ownership to Anglo in a future JV structure. Copper costs in the DRC and copper growth Group copper cash cost guidance for 2026 has been increased from 185c to 225c,implying ~240c in H2 following a reported 208c in H1. This is mainly due to a largetemporary increase in costs in the DRC due to higher sulphur and acid costs andaccounting for cobalt stockpiles (Fig 7). The company expects costs to fall relativelyquickly as the Strait of Hormuz reopens and trade flows normalise. For Katanga, theland package transaction secured in H1 supports a pathway back to 300ktpa ofproduction from 2028. At the December CMD, Glencore outlined a "Mount Everest"of copper projects, aimed at expanding group copper production from 840 kt in2026 to 1.1 mt by 2029 and a longer-term (2035) ambition of 1.6 mt. The companyis reporting good progress across its key projects. At Coroccohuayco, the companyis progressing the final land acquis