2027年晶圆定价顺风利好经营杠杆：GlobalFoundries Q2分析

Pricing tailwinds ahead Valuation & Risks Robert Sanders Tailwinds into 2027 on wafer pricing bode well for operating leverage Research Analyst+44-20-754-58394 GF reported a mixed Q2 with a decent top-line guide into H2 offset by worse-than-expected dilution on opex from M&A. As expected, improved data center prospectsled by silicon photonics (PIC) and silicon germanium (EIC) were offset by worseningsmartphone headwinds. Overall then, it was an update then that brought littlesurprise. What raised eyebrows was commentary around wafer pricing, with GFsuccessfullyimplementing pricing increases across"several technologycorridors", with this reflected in revenue commencing in 2027. When combinedwith the prospect of improving mix and higher utilization trending into the low-90pct range, this bodes well both for top-line growth and profitability. For example into2027, we forecast 13% sales growth, but 36% growth in non-GAAP EPS. DJ SebastianResearch Associate+1-415-262-2007 Melissa WeathersResearch Analyst+1-212-250-2134 GF still lags Tower in silicon photonics for AI in data centers - can it catch up? It was notable on the call that GF's CEO, Tim Breen, stated the company could "10x"its current silicon photonics (SiPho) capacity within the current four walls of its fabfootprint. That points to GF's near-term opportunity to capitalise on the very strongdemand for silicon photonics (growing at 77% 3-year CAGR in our view). GF mayhave struggled to win large-scale SiPho volumes for the AI data center with theambitious Fotonix platform during 2023-25, but with GF's revised strategy("SCALE") and significant 300mm capacity in place today, the opportunity is therefor GF to capitalise if it can demonstrate yields that are comparable to that of Tower.Tower meanwhile is somewhat a victim of its own success and is franticallyexpanding greenfield capacity adjacent to its 300mm fab in Uozu. Even if Tower istying customers up with take-or-pay type agreements, there could then be awindow of opportunity for GF in 2027-28 to make up lost ground both at pluggabletransceiver players and at major hyperscalers ahead of NPO ramps. Buy maintained. Price target cut to $75 (from $80), equivalent to 39% upside.Despite positives around broad wafer pricing and utilization, we have trimmed our 2028E non-GAAP EPS by 8% (from $3.85 to $3.54) to account primarily for higheropex in the model and some nagging concerns around the sustainability of SiPhogross margins given execution risk, which has the effect of reducing our estimateof fair value to $75 (from $80). Our revised price target is equivalent to 21x 2028EPE. When compared to GF's closest peer, Tower Semi, this is equivalent to a 20%discount on 2028E PE and to a 40% discount on 2028E EV/EBITDA, both based onBloomberg consensus. This compares to the current discounts of 40% and 60% IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. Deutsche Bank doesand seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm mayhave a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a singlefactor in making their investment decision. 10 August 2026SemiconductorsGlobalFoundries respectively. A discount is merited in our view given GF has a much lower siliconphotonics exposure as a percentage of sales. Downside risks mainly relate toexecution risks around silicon photonics, potential capex requirements for newgreenfield capacity and the longevity of current smartphone-market weakness. Thecompany's majority shareholder, Mubadala, could also choose to sell down shares. 10 August 2026SemiconductorsGlobalFoundries Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request Disclosure checklist *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Otherinformation is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primarysubject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EquityResearchDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investorsare strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.SeeImportant Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes. 1.Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public offeri