宏观周报：上游分化，下游回落

中观总览 上游：本周上游原材料价格走势延续板块分化格局。能源方面，本周国际原油与液化天然气价格较上期小幅下调；黑色方面，纯碱、螺纹和热卷价格小幅回落；有色整体偏强震荡，铝价受库存去化及中东供应扰动支撑走高，镍等品种仍受供给宽松预期压制；化工品内部涨跌互现，甲醇等品种受国内累库与需求疲软拖累回落。 中游：本周中游制造业延续分化格局。能源方面，高温天气推升电厂日耗维持旺季水平；农业方面，生猪屠宰企业开工温和回升，大豆压榨量较前期小幅波动；化工方面，聚乙烯、PTA等品种开工率小幅震荡。PX加工费上行；有色方面，电解铝锭库存延续去化，冶炼加工端整体平稳。 下游：本周下游消费小幅回落。地产方面，本周多数城市新房销售较上期回落。广州、成都、杭州、西安等部分城市较上期销售改善。物流客运方面，铁路与公路货运量回落。国际与国内航班班次较此前回落。汽车消费方面，本周下游新能源车销售较上期回升，传统燃油车销售较此前无明显变化仍处低位。 细分行业 大农业：玉米价格持续回落、棕榈油和棉花价格回升；苹果、淀粉持续去库。 能源：国际原油、液化天然气价格小幅回落。 采矿业：有色价格方面，锌、铅和铜持续上行，镍小幅回落。有色库存方面，铅去库、铜和铝小幅堆积；黑色价格方面，纯碱、螺纹和热卷小幅回落。黑色库存方面，炼焦煤去库，焦炭和纯碱堆积。 化工：苯乙烯、聚乙烯、甲醇价格小幅回落，PTA价格震荡；尿素库存堆积，MTO去库。 基建：水泥、混凝土价格回落；混凝土产能、水泥供给双回落。 地产：本周重点监控城市中，广州、成都、杭州、西安新房销售套数较上期有所提升，其余多数城市新房销售套数较上期回落。 物流运输：铁路和公路货运回落。美西和欧洲航线价格回落。 风险 上游价格快速上涨，外部风险冲突 目录 一、中观总览............................................................................................................................................4二、行业总览............................................................................................................................................52.1生产行业............................................................................................................................................................................52.2服务行业............................................................................................................................................................................6三、行业定价............................................................................................................................................7四、细分行业跟踪....................................................................................................................................104.1广义农业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.2化工行业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.3有色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.4黑色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.5基建行业..........................................................................................................................................................................124.6物流运输..........................................................................................................................................................................134.7汽车制造业......................................................................................................................................................................144.8地产行业..........................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1：全社会用电量....................................................................................................................................................................4图2：GDP分产业........................................................................................................................................................................4图3：通胀....................................................................................................................................................................................4图4：PMI....................................................................................................................................................................................4图5：生产行业PPI......................................................................................................................................................................5图6：生产行业工业增加值同比................................................................................................................................................5图7：纺织市场景气指数............................................................................................................................................................6图8：上海出口集装箱结算运价指数........................................................................................................................................6图9：邮政数据............................................................................................................................................................................6图10：社会消费品零售同比......................................................................................................................................................6图11：行业市场定价...................................................................................................................................