施耐德电气：一年精进，一日验证——执行力拐点显现

+44 20 7762 4952alasdair.leslie@bernsteinsg.com +44 20 75502192om.kela@bernsteinsg.com +44 20 77621411nicholas.witting@bernsteinsg.comSpecialist Sales JamesBrady +44 20 7762 5272james.brady@bernsteinsg.com Schneider: A Year in a Day Schneider'sweakeroperatingleverageoverthepast 12monthshas beenheavilyscrutinisedbyinvestors.Tobefairtomanagement,theyrecognisedimprovementwasneededandsetacoursetoaccelerateproductivity,costsavingsandpricing.H1appearstobeanemphaticdemonstration thatarenewedfocuson execution,traditionallya strengthof Schneider's,ispaying off.Thismarks an important turningpoint, reflected in the>10% share pricemoveyesterday (a far cryfrom this time last year), with the focus shifting back to strong positioningand best-in-classgrowthprospects. A yearto fix it, a day to prove it... Execution, Schneider's historic strength-turned-weakness which had beleaguered the shares forthe last year,turned a cornerin H1.Pricingc.2.8%pricing over H1.We model pricingaccelerates c.50Obps in H2 as freshQ2pricing runsinto tougher comps (Exhibit 4).We illustrate howthe strong H1 rawmaterial (RM) headwindscouldmoderateusing disclosureand peerbenchmarkingfor SU's RMexposures.WeassumeSchneiderhedge2o%oftheirtop3commoditiesbyvalue,andthoughacrudemeasure,RM inflation could moderate in H2, helped by'easier' comps (Exhibit 3). Schneider is fightingan uphill battle, attempting (and succeeding)to balance RM inflation group-wide throughpricing on<50% of their sales. With only 2 margin touchpoints per year, we think the shares535m,and+80bpsexcludingthetariff refund (+30bps vs cons). We see Schneider's decades long experience in prefabricated solutions as a growingcompetitive advantage. With peers such as Vertiv highlighting the challenges of scalingincreasingly integrated Al infrastructure solutions, Schneider appears relatively wellpositioned. Growth continues to be stand-out, and Energy Management continues to holdcustomer visibility and disciplined capacity planning. Importantly, Schneider is leveragingpartners such as Foxconn and Softbank to addmanufacturing scaleand Al rack integrationcapabilities, while still supplying the underlying equipment themselves, allowing it to scaledeployment without relying solely on its own production footprint and capex. InvestmentImplications We reiterate our Outperform rating on Schneider,upgrading group organic growthby 280bps for 2026and by 80bpsfor 2027 on theback of an exceptional Q2'26print.Thisunderpins our pricetargetupgrade to330,putting SU on a targetFY27P/Emultiple of c.25x. This implies a PEG of<2x givenFY27-30 EPS CAGR of 13%, which we see as fair value,as we still seeSchneider as offering the best growth potential sector-wide. TURNINGACORNERONEXECUTION Though not all Electricals have reported, nVent would have to post 37% LFLgrowth in Q2 to surpass Schneider in Q2, and for Eaton and Siemens 19% and 20% LFL, respectively.Global Electricals: Organic growth 2020-25 (indexed to 2019) ManagementquantifiedQ2price realizationatapproximately2.5xQ1 (c.2%),reflectingthepass-throughofactionstaken at the start of the year. June exit rates appear sufficient to offset raw-material inflation and tariffs if sustained in H2. However, netprice remained negative in H1, while tariff developments remain uncertain; the FY offset depends on maintaining the strongerQ2 run-rate, which we think is well underpinned. The Foxconn partnership will add NorthAmerican capacity for prefabricated modular data center solutions without Schneider manufacturing the full requirement internally. This should support faster scaling while reducing fixed-cost and stranded-capacity risk ifdata centergrowth eventuallymoderates. KEYPOINTSFROMTHERELEASEPositives: Organicgrowth beatin everyregionand everysegment.At thegrouplevel, LFL salesgrowth was closeto+6pp aheadof consensus, coming in at 16.5%. EM LFL growth of 17.7% (+62Obps vs cons) was driven by impressive NA LFL growthconsensus, and driven bya standout performance in China & East Asia, up 19.6%LFL(+12pp vs cons).Data centers remainstrong, with orders up triple digits in Q2. Margins outperformed strongly.Group adj.EBITAmargins of 19.3% were +8Obps ahead of consensus.Organic margindevelopment of+12Obps was more than 2x consensus LFLmargin improvement of+53bps, and driven by EM, wheremargins reached 22.4% (+70bps vs cons)and expanded+10Obps LFLyoy.Group figures were also supported by-2%c.2%, Legrand Q2 3.6%). of consensus, culminating in absolute adj. EBITA for the full-year 2% ahead vs cons. Negatives: progression.Absolute IA adj. EBITA came in -2% below consensus,though the miss made little dent at the group level (groupabs. adj. EBITA +7% vs cons). bytriple-digit demandinDataCenterandSemiconductorinQ2 EXHIBIT 6: Schneider's 800 VDC portfolio. 8ooVDcportfoliodesignedinstepwiththenextgenerationTEcHNoLoGYofAllnfrastructure TechPower 800vDCPowerCenterLocation: Facil Tech4.8MWDCtoDataHallperFeed 800VDCPowerBlock TechSST,34.5kVto800VDC5-10MWDCt