中国电池材料：电动车销量低迷与强劲电池需求之间的调和

China Battery Materials A reconciliation between tepid EV sales vol and strong batteryinstallation CITI'S TAKE Monthly battery installation data pack from Real Lithium suggests that1H26 vehicle battery installation in China was +33% YoY to ~451.6 GWh.Within that, battery installation of EV-PV / PHEV-PV / commercial vehiclewas up by 20%, 27%, and 94% YoY respectively. We reconcile the tepid EVsales vol (+10% YoY) and strong battery installation (+33% YoY) in 1H26,and believe it's attributable to (1) the continuing battery upsizing trendacross the board (including both passenger vehicle and commercialvehicle), (2) rising commercial vehicle, and (3) higher exposure to the high-end class passenger vehicle. CATL continues to be the market leader andkept taking market share during the period, whereas its market share wasup by 3ppt YoY to 45% during 6M26. We maintain our near-term bullishcall on lithium carbonate price into Aug/Sep peak season. Top picksGanfeng, Yuneng, CATL. Jack Shang, CFAAC+852-2501-2441jack.shang@citi.com Anna Wang+852-2501-2739anna.d.wang@citi.com Jimmy Feng+852-2501-7588jimmy.feng@citi.com Cynthia Wu+852-2868-7813cynthia.d.wu@citi.com What's going on YTD- According to Real Lithium, vehicle battery installation inChina totaled 451.6 GWh, +33% YoY. CATL’s (excl CATL-SAIC JV) market share wasup by 3ppt YoY to 45% during 6M26, whilst BYD’s market share was down by 7pptto 20% in the meantime vs 27% in 6M25. Top-2 battery makers took up 65% marketshare during 6M26, -4ppt YoY from 69% in 6M25. See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations Not for distribution in the People's Republic of China, excluding the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and QualifiedForeign Institutional Investors. A reconciliation between tepid EV sales vol and strong battery installation- Battery installation was up by 33% YoY in thefirst half of 2026, showcasing the decent momentum albeit EV sales volume (incl both passenger vehicle and commercialvehicle) was only up by 10% YoY in the meantime. This is mainly attributable to (1) a continuous battery upsizing across theboard whereas the battery size of EV-PV, PHEV-PV, and commercial vehicle was up by 12%, 27%, and 14% YoY respectively in1H26, (2) rising commercial vehicle importance to take up ~23% of 1H26 battery installation, vs 16% in 1H25, (3) passengervehicle is shifting to the high-end market whereas A-class PV % of battery installation was down from 40% in 1H25 to 30%during 1H26 whilst B/C/D-class PV % are increasing in the meantime. Companies Mentioned:BAIC Motor (1958.HK; HK$0.89; 2; 29 Jul 26; 16:10) | BYD (1211.HK; HK$93.6; 1; 29 Jul 26; 16:10) | BYD (002594.SZ; Rmb94.85; 1; 29 Jul 26; 15:00) | CALB Group Co Ltd (3931.HK; HK$16.87; 1; 29 Jul 26; 16:10) | CATL (300750.SZ;Rmb396.84; 1; 29 Jul 26; 15:00) | CATL (3750.HK; HK$619.5; 1; 29 Jul 26; 16:10) | Chery (9973.HK; HK$26.74; 1; 29 Jul 26;16:10) | Chongqing Changan Automobile (000625.SZ; Rmb7.52; 2; 29 Jul 26; 15:00) | Eve Energy (300014.SZ; Rmb53.22; 1;29 Jul 26; 15:00) | FAW Jiefang Group Co Ltd (000800.SZ; Rmb6.37; Not Rated; 29 Jul 26; 15:00) | Ganfeng Lithium(002460.SZ; Rmb49.92; 1; 29 Jul 26; 15:00) | Ganfeng Lithium (1772.HK; HK$38.56; 1; 29 Jul 26; 16:10) | Geely Automobile(0175.HK; HK$20.3; 1; 29 Jul 26; 16:10) | Gotion High Tech (002074.SZ; Rmb28.29; 1; 29 Jul 26; 15:00) | Great Wall Motor(601633.SS; Rmb16.62; 3; 29 Jul 26; 15:00) | Guangzhou Automobile (2238.HK; HK$2.35; 2; 29 Jul 26; 16:10) | HunanYuneng New Energy Battery Material (301358.SZ; Rmb64.6; 1; 29 Jul 26; 15:00) | Leapmotor (9863.HK; HK$42.18; 1; 29 Jul26; 16:10) | LG Energy Solution (373220.KS; W300500.0; 1; 29 Jul 26; 15:45) | Li Auto (LI.O; US$13.21; 2; 28 Jul 26; 16:00) |NIO (9866.HK; HK$38.3; 1; 29 Jul 26; 16:10) | SAIC Motor (600104.SS; Rmb10.77; 2; 29 Jul 26; 15:00) | Seres Group(601127.SS; Rmb58.0; 3; 29 Jul 26; 15:00) | Sinotruk (Hong Kong) (3808.HK; HK$41.9; 1; 29 Jul 26; 16:10) | SunwodaElectronic Co Ltd (300207.SZ; Rmb19.11; Not Rated; 29 Jul 26; 15:00) | Tesla (TSLA.O; US$307.44; Not Rated; 28 Jul 26; 16:00) | XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425.SZ; Rmb9.0; Not Rated; 29 Jul 26; 15:00) | Xiaomi (1810.HK;HK$31.88; 1; 29 Jul 26; 16:10) | XPeng (XPEV.N; US$12.71; 1; 28 Jul 26; 16:00) If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS +1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designatedby “AC” in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple ACanalysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than(a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst li