耐克：中国市场重塑对业务意味着什么？

Aneesha Sherman+1 917 344 8457aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.com Nike Inc Jessica Tian+1 917 344 8413jessica.tian@bernsteinsg.com Jed Hodulik+1 917 344 8594jed.hodulik@bernsteinsg.com Price Target NKE 68.00 USD(72.00OLD) Nike: What does the China reset mean for the business? Nike is making an aggressive move to reset its China distribution, eliminating partner-operatedonline sales completely to improve quality and full-price sales. We break down the growthcomponents of the China business to estimate the qualitative and quantitative impact on Nike’sbusiness and the broader competitive landscape. Nike is completely eliminating its Wholesale online business in China, as well ascutting back low-quality DTC online sales. This is not a DTC-focused move, but ratheran effort to reduce low-quality online sales (e.g. deep discounts, gray market, third partyresellers, etc) to improve brand equity and full-price selling. We model a low-teens headwind to China growth, but stronger margin recovery. Whilethe inventory liquidations and buy-backs in China are largely done, this move adds anotherbig step-down in sales for FY27: We model a low-teens decline for China, i.e. a 2 ppt dragon total company growth. The offset is stronger China margins from higher quality sales (wemodel +200 bps in FY27) making double-digit margins more achievable mid-term. Implications for Nike’s business: While we expect some of these lost sales to be recoveredby the online DTC business, the majority will be given up. With premium Western brandscompeting at the high-end and mass domestic brands at the low end, Nike is unlikely to growabove market and recapture lost share: we model growth in-line with the market mid-termfollowing this reset, though with margins improving from the mix shift towards higher quality. Implications for competitors: Adidas should be the biggest beneficiary, both from onlinecustomers shifting their market share, and from higher demand from partners like Topsportsand Pou Sheng. Domestic brands will also benefit from Nike walking away from onlinediscounts, continuing to gain market share at the mass/economy price points. Investment Implications Cut PT to $68 from lower China revenue: 27x FY28 EPS of 2.50 (prev 2.67). DETAILS Following media reports over the past several weeks, Nike and its largest China partners, Topsports and Pou Sheng, confirmedlast week that Nike’s China business will stop selling through partner-operated online storefronts beginning in January 2027. In this note, we address Nike’s history in China, the actions Nike is currently taking in their China business, the implications for thecompetitive landscape, and the impact on Nike’s financials. Related Notes: •Nike: Key takeaways from Bernstein's Retail Forum•Nike Q4: Quality over Quantity•Global Sportswear: State of the sector in China•Global Sportswear: Is the sector de-rating deserved? A deep-dive into valuation over the next decade•The Long View: Global Sportswear - Evolution of the sector over the next decade CONTEXT Nike has been losing market share every year since 2020. Nike was one of the earliest international Sportswear brandsto establish a presence in the market, entering China in the early 1980s and spending the next several decades building adominant position and gaining share, mostly coming from domestic brands. Nike and other major international brands togetherreached a peak of 57% market share in 2020 (Exhibit 2) of which Nike alone was half at 27% (Exhibit 1). But since then, due to external factors (e.g. the 2021 Xinjiang cotton controversy and 2022-23 COVID-related lockdowns,which disproportionately hurt Western brands that over-indexed to high-tier cities) as well as stronger efforts by domesticbrands to gain share, Nike’s share of the market gradually declined from 27% to the low-20s. Then from 2024 onwards, Nike saw sharper declines, driven by specific inventory and clearance issues on major Lifestylefranchises that the brand became over-reliant on, as we have seen across Nike’s global markets. Nike undertook a multi-yearmarketplace cleanup that included buying back inventory from partners, reducing sell-in, liquidating product, and in some casesphysically moving inventory out of China into neighboring markets (e.g., Turkey), which resulted in more share losses, down to16% in 2025. For more on the broader context of the China market and our views on growth, see our note from June 2026: Global Sportswear:State of the sector in China EXHIBIT 1:Nike's share has declined from around 27% at its peak to around 16% in 2025, with much of the pre-COVID share expansion now having been reversed EXHIBIT 2:Since 2020, local competitors have steadily taken share from International brands CURRENT FOCUS: ONLINE DISTRIBUTION AND MARKETPLACE MANAGEMENT Franchise management is largely done — the goal is now to rebuild the brand. While Nike’s efforts in China have movedslower than other regions — e.g. North America was cleaned up