2026年上半年疲软盈利已定价：仍预估2027年复苏，越秀物业预警非黑天鹅

China Real Estate 2027recovery werealreadyreset Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedmichellekwok@hsbc.com.hk+85229966918Oliver Yu* K-shaped recovery and market consolidation underpin ourexpectation of a broad earnings recovery from 2027 Analyst, Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedoliver.y.o.x.yu@hsbc.com.hk+85222882050Stephen Wang*,CFA +Prefer Buy-ratedCRL and C&D,both offering moreresilientearnings profile (p.2) Analyst,AsiaRealEstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited+852 2284 1675Brian Yu* expecting 1H26 core net profit to decline by c90-95% y-0-y, citing lower revenuerecognitionfrom contracted sales,weaker JV contributions,andcontinued marginpressure -factors we also expect to see across other developers. Its share price wasup 1.6% on 20 July (vs HSl: +2.4%), reflecting these factors have been priced in. Weexpectdeveloperstorecordmoreimpairmentprovisionsandlowermarginsforsoldinventories in1H26 oreventhefull year,butthe sector's earnings recoverythemeremains intact (Catch me if you can: the market's already in 2027, 8 April 2026),given narrowing home price decline and reduced destocking pressure. Associate, Asia Real Estate Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedbrian.d.yu@hsbc.com.hk+85228227281Charlotte Ye* AssociateGuangzhou *Employed bya non-US affliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,and isnot registered/qualifiedpursuant toFINRAregulations Capitalising on the K-shaped recovery. Primary sales stayed soft through earlysummer, partly due to an unusually rainy season across many eastern cities.Thatsaid, the K-shaped recovery remains largely undisturbed. On the mass-market side,secondary transactions MTD are up ~7% y-o-y in 10 cities (Figure 3), pointing toimproving resale liquidity.Together with better affordability,this could help attracthousehold savings back into housing without a meaningful leverage-up, againsttighter cross-border capital controls and limited higher-yielding onshore alternatives.Into2H,aneasierbaseleavesroomforupsidesurprises.Atthepremiumend,demand remains resilient, with record luxury transactions in Hangzhou in 1H26 andstrong recent launches (Figure 4) underscoring appetite for luxury products. Market sharegains remain concentrated among leaders.In1H26,Top 10developers'market share rose~1ppt y-o-yfrom 2025, while Top50's was broadly flat(Figure 5), signalling ongoing consolidation and widening divergence. We believedevelopers withstrongerproduct capabilities andpremiumland banks arebestpositioned to monetise upgrader demand. CRL, COLI and Jinmao continue to gainshare alongside meaningful AsP uplift, reflecting a higher mix of premium launches. Forretail landlords,despitesoftretail sales,thetotal share ofourcoverednames innationalretail sales almost doubled from 2021 to 2025 (Figure 6). Though valuation upside maystill be capped by subdued sentiment, earnings visibility supports our positive stance. Nocountryforbears Preferred picks.We continue to see greater upside surprise potential forresidentialdevelopers, favouring CRL and C&D (both Buy-rated) for their leading position inhigh-end projects and strongerearnings visibility.We expectboth companies to havemore resilient 1H26 results althoughtheyare not immunefrom the sectorheadwinds. The 24th edition of the EM Sentiment Survey Click to view Issuerofreport:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBankingCorporation Limited Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com guided to sharp net profit declines or potential net losses, including China Merchants Shekouhas largely priced in the potentially weak 1H26 and FY26 results, with attention shifting to amore meaningful earnings recovery from 2027 onwards as the drag from falling home priceseases.We expect mostdeveloperstoface similarpressures: Development Property (DP) revenue contraction: With contracted sales declining drive further impairment provisions and lower margins on completed homes sales, weighingon gross margins. Lower JV contribution: Profit shares from jointly developed projects are also likely toweaken amid ongoing sector headwinds. On stock level, select developers willead in this earnings recovery cycle -we expect cRL and C&Dtohavemoreresilientresults. CRL (Buy): DP challenges partially offset by IP strength. 1H26 gross rental income rose13% y-o-y (based on monthly announcements), helping to cushion softer DP revenue. Highshopping mall margins (FY25: 77%) should further mitigate DP margin pressure. Inaddition, a >RMB2bn revaluation gain (vs RMB10bn 1H25 core profit) related to theChengduMixcmall spin-offwhichweexpecttoberecognisedin1H26couldalleviateearnings pressure. C&D (Buy): Supported by a younger landbank. We expect e