您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [伯恩斯坦]:欧洲中型股首选更新:更具选择性的SMiD市场下的六个新想法 - 发现报告

欧洲中型股首选更新:更具选择性的SMiD市场下的六个新想法

2026-07-20 伯恩斯坦 郭生根
报告封面

European Midcap top picks update: Six new ideas for a moreselective SMID market stocks entering our Top Picks selection and six names leaving the portfolio. While ourequal-weighted basket delivered a 12.2%total return since the March reshuffle,broadly inline with the MsCI Europe Small benchmark,underlying stock performance was far moredivergent, highlighting the importance of stock selection in an increasingly selective marketenvironment. +33157294525aleksander.peterc@bernsteinsg.com +331421385 21marie-line.fort@bernsteinsg.com The strongest contributors over theperiod were Asmodee (35.7% relativetobenchmark),Havas (19.3%) and Sacyr (6.6%), while weakness in Exail Technologies (-25%), Davideoutperformance.As aresult,wearetakingprofitswhereupsidehas narrowed,exiting namesdriven by takeover dynamics, and reallocating capital towards a new set of opportunitieswhere we see a more favourable combination of valuation, earnings momentum andidentifiable catalysts. +33 1 42 14 75 16philippe.lorrain@bernsteinsg.com FlavienBaudemont+33 1 42 14 8151flavien.baudemont@bernsteinsg.com Susannah Ludwig+41 582 723 127susannah.ludwig@bernsteinsg.com WeaddConvatec,GroupeSEB,CTSEventim,GTT,TAGImmobilienandX-FABtotheportfolio. Collectively,these additions provide exposure to a broad range ofthemes where weconsumerself-help stories,live entertainmentmonetisation,theLNGvessel cycle,Polishresidential growth and a potential recovery in speciality semiconductors. Several of theseideas are also supportedby visiblemedium-term earnings upgradepotential,improving end-market conditions or company-specific catalysts overthenext 6-18 months. Annick Maas+44 20 7676 6683annick.maas@bernsteinsg.com Victor Acitores+34 915893901victor.acitores@bernsteinsg.com The portfolio continues to balance quality compounders, structural growth opportunities,self-helpsituationsandcyclicalrecoverystoriesacross sectors.AlthoughSocieteGenerale'sstrategyteam recently downgradedthe SMiD assetclassto Equal Weight from Overweightowingtoa less supportivemacro backdrop,theycontinuetohighlight attractiverelativevaluations, healthy balance sheets and stronger forecast earnings growth than large capsIn our view,this strengthensthecasefor a selective,stock-by-stockapproachfocusedondifferentiatedbusinessqualityandidentifiable catalysts,ratherthanbroadasset-classexposure. Guillaume Delaby+33142136229guillaume.delaby@bernsteinsg.com Marios Pastou+44 20 7676 6881marios.pastou@bernsteinsg.com WerateSPIEOutperformwithaPT setat 61.00WerateTriganoOutperformwithaPTsetat199.00WerateRationalOutperformwithaPTsetat1,050.00We rateGTTOutperform with a PT setat 245.00.WerateSacyrOutperformwithaPTsetat5.60WerateConvatec Outperformwitha PT set at GBp275.00WerateGroupeSebOutperformwithaPTsetat73.00WerateTAG Immobilien OutperformwithaPTset at18.30.WerateCTSEventimOutperform witha PT set at94.00. 17 Jul 2026 -TAG: Best ldea 3Q26-Superior growth prospects yet to be reflected; Outperform 1 Jul 2026-Sacyr: Best Idea 3Q26-Well positioned to capture US Managed Lanes opportunities.Outperform26 Jun 2026 - Convatec: A closer look at the key drivers of the H2 acceleration24Jun2026-Trigano:Attractivewindowtostepupbuybackprogramme23Jun2026-X-FAB-Multipleunder-utilisedgrowthengines-UpgradetoOutperform16 Jun2026-Bestof Times,Worst of Times:CTS Eventim-Live Music and the K-shaped economy15 Jun 2026-GTT:Best idea for 3Q26.Safe harbor. Likely 2028-31 consensus upgrades (soon and post 1H26 on 28 July)15May 2026-SPIE: M&A flywheel re-accelerating-Model refresh6May2026-RATIONAL:Well on track after a good 1Q;model refresh8Apr2026-Groupe Seb:Anew recipe forprofitablegrowth23Mar2026-EuropeanMidcaptoppicksupdate:Campari and TriganoreplaceBrunelloCucinelli and Durr17Feb2026-WhenAlthreatens themoat#3-The next shoesto drop13Feb2026-WhenAl threatens the moat#2:Our selection of"Alrisk-proof"long ideas11Feb2026-WhenAl threatens themoat:displacement risk and European SMIDportfoliopositioning Our equal-weighted list of preferred stocks has generated a 12.2% total return since the last reshuffle,published on 23March 2026,withperformancemeasuredfromthe20Marchclose.Thiswas onlyslightlyabovethetotal returnoftheMSClEuropeSmallbenchmark overthe period (+0.04% relative). corrections in Exail Technologies (-25.0%), Davide Campari (-12.8%) and, to a lesser extent, Cirsa, Rational and Trigano (-4% to-6%).SPIE delivered an almost in-line relativeperformance (-0.3%). previousreshuffleon23/03/2026Our index ofpreferred stocks is equal-weightedat each reshuffle (including mini-reshuffles) Equal-weightedsince ourlast reshuffle on23/03/2026 EXHIBIT3:PerformanceofourSMIDTop10stocks,relativetotheMSCIEuropeSmallCapindexRelativeperformances ofourlistconstituentsoverthepastthreemonths After having held an Overweight stancefor roughly a year, SG strategists recently downgraded their opinion on the EMEA SMID assetclass (seeTheBigPicture-3Q26Outlook-AlornotAl): "We turned overweight on the Eurozone small caps in June 2025