你需要了解的60届美国中期选举

Brett Ryan luly2026 An election is coming. Universal peace is declared and the foxeshave a sincere interest in prolonging the lives of the poultry. - T.SEliot Ballot scope: Congress plus governors electionstoservetheremainingtermsforJDVance (R-OH)andMarcoRubio(R-FL).Of the36gubernatorialofficesupforelection in2026,Democrats andRepublicanseachhold18.Nationally,Republicanshold26governorshipsandDemocratshold24. Sources: Bipartisan Policy Center (2026 key dates); AP 2026 election calendar; Ballotpedia 2026congressionalandgubernatorialelections. Ryan, Luzzetti, Weidner,Yangl July 2026 Control math: A few seats can reset policy dynamics narrowflipchangescommitteecontrol,oversightposture,andlegislativedealdynamics net D gain+4forcontrol HousefiguresreflectBallotpedia'sJune11snapshot;vacanciescanshifttheeffectivemargin Source: Ballotpedia, United States Congress elections, 2o26; counts are snapshots and may move withvacanciesorspecialelections Ryan, Luzzetti, Weidner, Yangl July 2026 President's party typically loses seats in the midterms. Magnitude of losseshistorically correlated with the President's approval rating Midterm elections historicalpatterns 1946 - present Midterm elections: Historical pattern Core pattern: the opposition party typically gains seats as midterms become a referendum onthe president and turnout shifts. The president's party has lost House seats in 20 of 22midterms since 1938. The two midterms where this was not the case were 1998 (Clinton) and2002 (Bush). 3 Lower-turnout electorates canmagnifyenthusiasm anddemographicgaps. Theseat-losspatternappearsrepeatedlyacrossrecentadministrations. Voters use midterms to registerapprovalorfrustrationwiththegoverningparty. RECENT EXAMPLES 2018 2010 2022 Republicans gained the House duringObama's first term Republicans gained the Houseduring Biden's first term Democrats gained the Houseduring Trump's first term Source:Ballotpedia, Deutsche Bank Voter turnout is consistently lower during midterm years Average midterm seat losses (1946 - Present) The historical baseline is clear: House losses are larger, while Senate losses are smaller but strategicallymeaningful Overall average Republican Presidents' Average -25.8House-3.6Senate HOUSE SENATE Smaller average losses can still decide control whenmargins are narrow such as the 119Congress. Thechamberishistoricallymoreexposedtonational mood swings. Post-WWll Senate seat-loss pattern by Presidents' party 1946-Present House seat-loss pattern by Presidents' party The average seat loss has been higher for 2nd term presidents These patterns tend to hold regardless of fiscal policy impact in themidterm year No clear pattern in stock market performance in the run up to midterms(Jan 1 - Oct 31) nor the 3 months after (Nov 1 - Dec 31) Average ViX and MOVE levels during recent midterm years more a functionof other factors, incl. what the Fed was doing at the time Partisan control of the Senate 2000 - 2025 Partisan control of the House 1999 - 2025 The 2026 Senate electionoverview Breakdown of 11gth Congress Senate by years in office serving in office. Senate map: GOP exposure, selective battlegrounds Democrats need a net four seats; the map gives them more GOP-held targets, while ratings stillconcentrate the battle in a handful of states recruitment and runoff rules matter. RATINGSSNAPSHOT AnalystmapscurrentlyflagNorthCarolina,Alaska,Ohio,and MaineamongthemostwatchedSenatecontests. CAVEAT Forecastsarenot votes; primaryoutcomes andapprovaltrends canre-rank racesquickly. Sources: Ballotpedia; 27OtoWin consensus map; Sabato's Crystal Ball. Ratings are snapshots, not predictions Senate Races to follow: Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats for amajority Senate battleground map Democrat Senate challengers are significantly younger than the group ofchallengers for the 2018 midterms Claude Opus 4.7. The 2026 House election overview Breakdown of 11gth Congress House by years in office Tenureof Representatives Thetable below shows a breakdown of how many years the representatives have beenservinginoffice House races to follow: Democrats need a net gain of 3 seats for a majorityRepublicanscannotlose morethan2seats218 Control of the House will likely come down to 38 competitive districts Redistricting impact on the House: Redrawing of districts in several statesmay net Republicans between 2 - 11 seats Alabama,andTennesseeresultin16Republicanpick-ups,whilenewmapsinCaliforniaandUtahresultinfiveDemocraticpick-ups.Republicanswouldflip11seats,onnet. A best-case scenario for Democrats: new maps in Texas, Missouri, Louisiana, Tennessee, Alabama andFlorida result in eight Republican pick-ups, while new maps in California and Utah also allow Democrats to flipsixseats,resultinginRepublicansnettingtwoseats 2026 voter sentiment and issues Party identity plays a large roll in how voters view the direction ofthe countryRepublicansmoresatisfiedwithdirectionofcountrywhenGoPco