国家气候与发展报告

Public Disclosure Authorized World Bank Group Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized 2026 © 2026 The World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank Group with external contributions. “The WorldBank Group” refers to the legally separate organizations of the International Bank for Reconstructionand Development (IBRD), the International Development Association (IDA), the International FinanceCorporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA). The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the contentincluded in this work, or the conclusions or judgments described herein, and accepts no responsibilityor liability for any omissions or errors (including, without limitation, typographical errors and technicalerrors) in the content whatsoever or for reliance thereon. The boundaries, colors, denominations, andother information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World BankGroup concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect theviews of the organizations of the World Bank Group, their respective Boards of Executive Directors, andthe governments they represent. The contents of this work are intended for general informational purposes only and are not intendedto constitute legal, securities, or investment advice, an opinion regarding the appropriateness of anyinvestment, or a solicitation of any type. Some of the organizations of the World Bank Group or theiraffiliates may have an investment in, provide other advice or services to, or otherwise have a financialinterest in, certain of the companies and parties named herein. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of theprivileges and immunities of any of the organizations of The World Bank Group, all of which are specif-ically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank Group encourages dissemi-nation of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposesas long as full attribution to this work is given and all further permissions that may be required for suchuse (as noted herein) are acquired. The World Bank Group does not warrant that the content containedin this work will not infringe on the rights of third parties, and accepts no responsibility or liability in thisregard. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The WorldBank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. COUNTRYCLIMATE ANDDEVELOPMENTREPORT CONTENTS Introduction01 C HAP TER 465 BOXES What would it mean for a cyclone to hit a major center?...............................................................................................12Fiji has elaborated its development and climate-related targets..................................................................................16Pathways to urban transport decarbonization..................................................................................................................40Forced to leave or forced to stay? Internal migration and climate stressors in Fiji....................................................48Models and scenarios used in this CCDR..........................................................................................................................53"Stress Tests” used to illustrate Fiji’s ‘long-tail’ climate risks........................................................................................59Revenue and expenditure reforms to enhance fiscal space...........................................................................................72Examples of derisking instruments to mobilize climate finance...................................................................................76 Box 1.1Box 1.2Box 2.1Box 2.2Box 3.1Box 3.2Box 4.1Box 4.2 FIGURES Figure 1.1Figure 1.2Figure 1.3Figure 1.4 Rising number of people affected by climate events.........................................................................................................6Per capita income growth accelerated over the past decade...........................................................................................6Temperatures have risen by about one degree Celsius......................................................................................................8Precipitation may also be increasing....................................................................................................................................8 Figure 1.5Stronger storms are coming more often......................................................................................