化学品行业：特种与大宗商品兼论，或将面临阶段性困境

Chemicals: Specialty or Commodity, with potentially tough timesin between superior investments to commodity companies.In the currentmarket, we seethis as moreofan either/orsituation.In timesofinflation,the specialtypricingpoweradvantageisundimmed.Butas thatinflationpartlycomesfrom commoditychemicals,wealso seeopportunitiesheretoo.Wearemoreconcerned by chemicals companies who existclosertothemiddleofthecommodity-specialtyspectrum,althoughwemakenoratings changesatthis time.Ourtop picks remain in the industrialgases (Linde andAirProducts),but BASFmovesupthepreferenceordertoourbestEuropeanidea. +442076766995james.hooper@bernsteinsg.com +212 5 22 86 79 41abdessamad.raghibi@bernsteinsg.com +44 207 762 1032sebastien.afoy@bernsteinsg.com Petrochemicalpriceshavedeclinedoverthelastmonthorso,drivenbyheadlinesof peace and China's release ofinventories/strategic oil reserves.Even beforetherecentresumption of hostilities,chemicals capacity was constrainedandtraffic throughthe Straitof Hormuz remains slow and prioritising liquids; in our view temporary relief based oninventory releases isnota sustainable solution tothe crisis.Wereiterate the conclusion ofrefresh of our cyclical recovery / macro scenario analysis indicates generally promising risk-reward at current share price levels. Specialist Sales +44 20 7762 5272james.brady@bernsteinsg.com Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com Pricing poweris keyto navigating thecurrent environment,and we see this ascurrentlymoreprevalent in specialityand commodity chemicals.Higherpricesacross the chemical value chain,which in some cases are only just taking effect,arelikely to contribute to inflationary pressure for end customers.For industries exposedtoend consumers,thiscouldmeandemandweakness.Webelievespecialtycompanieswill beabletopasstheelevatedcosts on,andmanycommodityapplications haveinelastic demand (e.g.agriculture, food packaging), which we see as supportive.Forthose companies whofall betweenthecommodityandspecialty business models-whichdifficult pricing versus volume decisions, with negative implications for their 2H results. ToppicksremaintheUS industrial gases-Linde&Air Products-and BASFmovesup the preference order.The industrial gases remain our preferred subsector. We remainOutperform on all three names,with a preference for Linde and AirProducts given we arewhilethe stockis atall-timehighs.Ournewtoppick inEurope is BASF.Wethink therecentdecline in the share price is overdone, and we believe 2H26 also has agricultural catalyststo look forward to. We also like Fertiglobe in the fertiliser space, PPG in Paints & Coatings,and Syensqo in industrial chemicals.We becomemore bearish on Clariant and Solvay,buttrajectory inCatalystsinparticular,andfor Solvaywecontinuetoviewthedemandandsupply environment for soda ash negatively. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS In preference order, we rate Linde,Air Products, BASF, Air Liquide, Fertiglobe,PPG and Syensqo Outperform.We rate AkzoNobel, Arkema, SABIC, Borouge, Clariant and Solvay Market-Perform. Wedon'tbelievethe Iran-relatedcycleisoveryet (see report Chemicals:Positioningforan Iran-related cycleand upgrading Arkema to Market-Perform) despite commodity chemical pricing returning close to pre-war levels (Exhibit 2, Exhibit 3).Asia wasthe worst affected region bythe crisis (Exhibit 4),and theyhave seeminglyweathered the crisis so far by Chinese producersreducing inventories and exporting products, despite declines in operating rates (Exhibit 5-Exhibit 8).With higher pricesweighingondemand,andsomeshippingrestartingthroughtheStraitofHormuz(Exhibit9)-thoughthesestatisticsarefrombeforetherecentrenewedwaveofattacks-commoditychemicalpricinghasthereforedeclined,takingdownthesharepricesof some previous beneficiaries suchas BASForArkema (Exhibit 10,Exhibit 11).And we remindreaders that our previous lran-relatedcycleassumptionwas predicated on traffic startingupbytheendof Q2,whichappears tobedelayed. Source: ICIS, Bernstein analysis Only includes markets for which China is a net exporter of PE as of May 2026.The“Other category includes all other markets not listed in the chart for whichChina is a net exporterSource: BloomberNEF, Sinoimex, General Customs of China, Bernstein analysis Chart only includes markets for which China is a netimporter of PE as of May2026. The“Other" category includes all other markets not listed in the chart forwhich China is a net importerSource: BloombergNEF, Sinoimex, General Customs of China, Bernstein analysis lowerthan2025-webelieveinventories arebeingmonetised than2025levelsChina's PE converter. operating.rate changes by month changes in percentage points, not percentageSource: BBloombergNEF, Oilchem, Bernstein analysis commodities-from the US or Chinese oil reserves to European gas storageto even commoditychemical inventories (Exhibit12 to Exhibit 14)-are currently being run down, and are likely needed to be rebuilt over the coming months and years, evenassuming somepre-buying in March/