《奢华数据手册：2026年7月》

The Luxury Data Handbook: July'26 testourexpectationsaheadofQ2;2/assessmid-termexpectations;and3/flagdatapointsthatmayindicateachange in the status quo. We think Q2 will feature weakdomestic Chinese consumption, strength in US and Korea,worse ME. NEUTRALEuropean Luxury Goods&Specialty RetailFilippo Croce+44 (0)20 3555 2994filippo.croce1@barclays.comBarclays, UKViktoria Petrova +49 (0)69 7161 1052viktoria.petrova@barclays.comBBl, Frankfurt Luxury Data Handbook -assumptions (4% sector growth)and highlights potentialJuly'26ChartPacksignals of changes in trends. We highlight: 1/slowingindicatorsofdomestic Chinese consumption (retailsales,Hainan duty-free sales, Macau GGR); 2/ slowing AmericantouristsintoEuropebutacceleratingdomesticUsconsumption;3/strongtrendsinKoreaoffsettinga sequentiallyworseME.Onourproprietary indicators,weflagnomajorglobalpriceincreasebetween Juneand July,andstillaccelerating US credit cardspending. +44 (0)20 3134 3168carole.madjo@barclays.comBarclays, UK Data Science & Applied AlVincenzo Pota()+44 (0)20 3134 2097vincenzo.pota@barclays.comBarclays, UK Whatdowe expectfortheQ2 reporting season?Acceleration to 4.7%cFXgrowthfor ourcoverage,driven bytheUs and Korea.Looking at 2Q26,we expect our coverage to grow 4.7%on an organic basis, slightly above BBG cons.at4.3% and accelerating vs 1Q26 at 3.5%.Ourestimates rangefrom Richemont Jewellery Maisons at 16% to Gucci at-5%,highlighting the stilldominant polarisation in the sector.We are above consensus on Richemont (which we recentlyplaced on catalyst alert ahead of the print) and below consensus on Gucci. Weexpect theacceleration tocome fromthe US andKorea,morethanoffsetting a sequentiallytougherME.Looking at the rest ofthe year,consensus expects a c.18obp acceleration vs the first half, whilewe only expectc.110bp (Figure3)。 Whatisthe datatelling us about Q2? Overall,the data continuesto supporta sequentialacceleration vs.Q1,driven by:1/ Jewellery (HSD to LDD pricingtaken since Q2lastyear,Figure15);2/US (Barclaycard data acceleratingto16% from6% in1Q26, Figure13),as wealth andconsumer sentiment determinants remain supportive; and 3/Korea (luxuryspending atdepartment stores continues to accelerate, Chinese tourist inflows still significant, Figures 7-8)We think thesefactors will more than offset:1/still weak domestic Chinese consumption (retailsales, Hainan duty-free sales and Macau GGR all slowing down in recent months, Figures 4-5); 2/ Barclays Capital Inc.and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a singlefactorin making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutsidetheUS whoarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalysts withFINRA. (i) This author is a member of the EMEA Equity Research department who may publish equityand debt research Please seeanalyst certifications andimportant disclosures beginning on page 9.Completed:10-Jul-26,14:32 GMTReleased: 13-Jul-26, 03:00 GMTRestricted - External decelerating in Q2,traffic with APAC in European airports decelerating, Figures 10-12); 3/sequentially tougher ME (offshore ME spending likely rebounding, but onshore traffic should bean incremental negative, given the incidence of the conflict for the entirety of Q2 vs only Marchin Q1).What are wekeeping our eyes on?Onceagain,weflag diverging relativevaluations within the sector, with Richemont becoming more and more expensive,and Hermes getting cheaper,prompting us to keep a close eye on changes in their risk-reward profiles (Figures 16-17). On thedata side, Chinese retail salesfor Jewellery were down sharply in April and May,mainly theresult of tough comps, which is why we would now expect a stronger print in June. Finally,wewill keep monitoring price increases from luxury brands, and jewellery in particular (Figure15). These have outpaced soft-luxury peers, providing a short-term tailwind on the one hand,but eroding the relative attractiveness of jewelleryfrom a value standpoint (a major driver ofrecent category strength) in the medium term. Setting the scene: what are we expecting for Q2?Looking at2Q26,we expect our coverage togrow 4.7% on anorganicbasis,slightlyabove BBG cons.at4.3%andacceleratingvs1Q26at3.5%.OurestimatesrangefromRichemontJewelleryMaisons at 16%to Gucciat-5%, highlighting the stilldominant polarisation in thesector.Weareaboveconsensus on Richemont (whichwerecentlyplacedon catalystalert aheadof theprint)aswe seenoreasonto expecta sequential decelerationvs calendarQi.We arebelowmaterialising,would require Guccito grow at least 6-7% in the second half to achieve positiveorganic growth in the FY. Talking about the restof theyear, current consensus numbersfor2Q26 imply a c.180bpaccelerationvsthefirsthalf,wi