特斯拉（TSLA.US）：再次上调预期

USA | Autos & Auto PartsTesla, Inc. Equity ResearchJuly 12, 2026 Raising estimates again We raise estimates again after Q2's significant auto volume beat. The strengthof Q2 volume in China and Europe seems to validate both the unique valueproposition of Tesla vehicles and the risk of vehicle commoditization over time.Underproduction should help Q2 cash flow but low implied Cybercab outputalso suggests more delays in ramping up Robotaxis. We raise Q2 EBIT to$1.45bn (5.1% margin), outer years' EBIT by ~ 6% and PT to $400. Volume performance in Q2 beat the most optimistic expectations, confirming the value propositionof Tesla vehicles in terms of price and efficiency despite relatively modest product innovation inrecent years. This in turn appears to validate Tesla's view on cars becoming commodities and thelogic of winding down investment in personal vehicles, but not too fast pending new growth areas. With reported Q2 deliveries (480.1k units, o/w Models 3/Y 467.8k) largely exceeding consensusof 406k and the 415k estimates we had set mid June, we increase auto revenue further to $21bnincluding $250m and $500m for ZEV and Leasing. Non repeat of Q1's fx and warranty benefitshould keep Auto GM slightly below Q1 (JEFe 18%). Slightly better BESS deployment helps takeour group revenue to $28.7bn and Group EBIT to $1.45bn. We assume cash burn $3.0bn on capexclimbing $6.9bn, implying a slower ramp in capex and some WC easing after Q1 inventory build,translating into liquidity ~$41.7bn. Apparent low unit production of Cybercab (Production/deliveriesof 8,822/12,364 units respectively in "Others") suggest the scaling robotaxis is not imminent. We raise FY 2026 EBIT 4% to $6.2bn factoring higher volume partly driven by higher priced LWBModel Y, and keep FCF outflow ~$7.5bn including capex of $23bn. We raise outer years EBIT ~6%and remain below consensus by continuing to factor losses from Robotaxis and Optimus in earlyyears. The relationship between earnings and valuation remains tenuous at best but the multi-yeardeterioration of growth and earnings has started to reverse. We appreciate the vision of Space Xand Tesla as proxies for long-term US strategies of independence and leadership in space, energy,manufacturing or semiconductors. We continue to see logic in a merger with SpaceX, on a relativelyshort timeframe to avoid potential delays in joint investments. At current prices, we calculate a nil-premium merger would translate into Elon Musk retaining a 55.3% voting stake in the combinedentity, leaving room for a potential premium for Tesla shareholders. Philippe Houchois * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8983 | philippe.houchois@jefferies.com Owen Paterson ^ | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7548 4745 | opaterson@jefferies.com Vanessa Jeffriess ^ | Equity Analyst44 (0)20 7548 4123 | vjeffriess@jefferies.com Michael Aspinall ^ | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 20 7029 8431 | maspinall@jefferies.com The Long View: Tesla, Inc. Investment Thesis •TSLA's operating performance confirms that the EV gap with Legacy OEMsis stagnating and still reducing vs Chinese competitors. However, growthhas picked up on competitive pricing.•The IPO of SpaceX is likely to lead to a merger as strategies converge,investment needs are high and Elon Musk seems determined to maintaincontrolling voting stakes.•Shares have been pricing a successful Robotaxi business which is nowemerging slowly•We believe TSLA can self-fund developments in AI (FSD, Dojo), Optimusrobots, and stationary storage.•Governance remains a significant risk. Downside Scenario,$250, -39% Upside Scenario,$550, +35% Base Case,$400, -2% •Product competition negatively affects salesand residual values.•Expansion capex requirement in excess of$20bn in 2026-27 to fund growth (no capexproductivity improvement).•Further delays in achieving autonomous driving•Tesla no longer self-funded and needs to raisecapital•EBIT margin durably <5% •TSLA has made SDVs and BEVs both possibleand mainstream. Part of a broader strategicmission Tesla is attempting to lead in energystorage, Robotaxis and Humanoids.•The process is not smooth and Tesla has beenex-growth for 3 years and seen a shap declinein EBIT/FCF with re-investment set to drive -veFCF.•Vision and tech innovation have disconnectedvaluation from operating performance.•$400PT-MixonDCF-basedauto/manufacturing activities and EV/sales multiplesfor Robotaxi business model, Energy, and peertransaction for Optimus. •Continued breakthrough in battery tech/costimproves hardware gross margin >20% andreturn to DD OP margin.•Validation of FSD through autonomy andscalingof a vertically integrated robotaxibusiness model Acceleration of FCF generationthroughimprovedworkingcapitalorstabilization of capex. Sustainability Matters Catalysts Top Material Issue(s):1) TSLA is leading the industry’s transition to cleaner energy through EVpowertrains, but also with a new model on vertical integration, product design (structural battery),low product complex