中国自动化与机械：花旗电话会纪要-来福驱动

What’s New from Citi Call – Laifual Drive (3952.HK, Not Covered) CITI'S TAKE Jamie WangAC+852-2501-2772jamie.ck.wang@citi.com We hosted a conference call with the mgmt. ofLaifual Drive (3952.HK)–China’s 2ndlargest harmonic reducer maker with 21.4% market share in2025, according to China Insights Consultancy. Key takeaways are1)highcomponent self-made ratio, fast delivery, and more SKU determine Laifual’scompetitiveness;2)due to strong demand, Laifual aims to increase itscapacity from currently 50k/month to 80k/month by the end of 2026 andfurther to 200k/month by 2027, in order to fulfill its harmonic reducershipment targets of 600k-700k/1.5mn unis in 2026/27 (vs. ~291k in 2025);3)mgmt. guided the revenue to reach Rmb400mn/700mn-750mn in2026/27, with NPM improving to 10%-15%, and the humanoid robotcontribution to increase from 15% of total shipments in 2025 to ~30% in2026. We see positive implications toLeader Drive (LD; 688017.SS)givenstrongerharmonic reducer demand from humanoid robots,despiteintensifying competition potentially. Eric Lau+852-2501-2726eric.h.lau@citi.com Competitiveness –Mgmt. believes that Laifual’s strength lies in1) high SKU–thenumber of SKU is closer to that of Harmonic Drive System (HDS; 6324.T) and higherthan that of LD;2) short delivery– 3-4 weeks vs. peers’ 1.5 months; and3) highcomponent self-made ratio –Laifual has the capability to design gear tooth whichleads to better durability (20,000 hours, 5-year warranty vs. LD’s >10,000 hours and3-year warranty). It also manufactures bearings so that its reducers could bettermeet tailor-made requirements from clients, especially humanoid robot customers. Capacity and shipment target –Laifual targets to expand its capacity from currently50k/month to 80k/month by the end of 2026 and further to 200k/month by the endof 2027. Laifual has delivered ~250k units of harmonic reducers in 1H26, and thedelivery target for 2026/27 is 600k-700k/1.5mn. Humanoid robot exposure –Mgmt. estimates that 15% of harmonic reducershipments were for humanoid robot in 2025 and expects the ratio to increase to30% in 2026. Laifual’s key humanoid robot customers include Zhiyuan/AgiBot(unlisted), UBTECH (9880.HK), Beijing Humanoid Robot R&D Center, etc. Laifual isalso in talk with Unitree, FigureAI, and even Tesla Optimus for potential harmonicreducer supply.The harmonic reducer ASP for humanoid robots is ~Rmb500 butGPM could be >30%, as per mgmt. Industrial robot exposure –Mgmt. indicated that Laifual’s China industrial robotmarket share has been higher than that of LD, Estun (002747.SZ/2715.HK), Step,andQianjiang Robot.Laifual has also passed KUKA’s harmonic reducercertifications. Guidance –Mgmt. guided the revenue to increase from Rmb260mn in 2025 toRmb400mn in 2026 and further to Rmb700mn-750mn in 2027, with NPMimproving to 10%-15% likely in 2026. Besides, mgmt. expects GPM to expand to35%-40% within the next 3 years along with better economies of production scaleand higher factory automation ratio. See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. Not for distribution in the People's Republic of China, excluding the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and QualifiedForeign Institutional Investors. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, China Insights Consultancy © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, China Insights Consultancy © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, Company Reports © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, Company Reports © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.*Adjusted net loss = net loss adds back listing expenses, change in thecarrying amount of redemption liabilities, and equity-settled share-basedpayments expenses Source: Citi Research, Company Reports Source: Citi Research, Company Reports Leader Drive (688017.SS; Rmb405.0; 1; 10 Jul 26; 15:00) Valuation Our target price for LD of Rmb496 is based on 322x 2027E P/E, set at +1.5xSD to reflect its stronger-than-expected visibility for both humanoid andindustrial robots. Risks Key fundamental downside risks that could cause the stock price deviate fromour target price include: 1) slower growth in the automation market; 2)intensifying competition from foreign or local brands due to industryconsolidation; 3) higher raw material costs eroding GPM; and 4) lowercontribution from humanoid robot and other emerging applications. If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS +1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and co