月度图表：通胀并未消除

Matthew Luzzetti, Brett Ryan, Amy Yang, Justin WeidnerSourav Dasgupta, Suvir RanjanDeutsche Bank Center, 1 Columbus CircleNewYork,NewYork10019Tel: 212 250 6161 July2026 1. Doubts on disinflation PCE inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target;excluding the Covid period, core PCE highest since 1992 Demandisan underappreciateddriverofinflation Software and accessories inflation Al tools agree Al likely inflationary in near term Alis not convinced that Alis a significant disinflationary force renaintationstucknears%onnostmneasures Inflation is broad-based: Diffusion index shows many pricecomponents wl inflation higher than 2018 (last time at 2%) PCE inflation diffusion index Source:BEA,Macrobond,DeutscheBank Source:BEA,Macrobond,DeutscheBank Inflation is once again broad-based in goods (likely due totariffs) and has been consistently broad-based in supercore Supercore inflation diffusion index Core goods inflation diffusion index Source:BEA,Macrobond,DeutscheBank Pipeline inflation (from tariffs) remains elevated tnougntneyhave likely eased somewhat in recent weeks Source: ISM, BLS, FRBNY, Haver Analytics, Deutsche Bank Historcatty,suppty-than demand-driven CorePCEinflationovershootsinceCovidismorethan2xthe2010s undershoot in half the time Inflation expectations are elevated Beige Book shows intensifying price pressures DB core PCE inflation forecast by component - stickiness isevident this year, some improvement in 2027 DB forecasts do not see inflation fully returning to 2% Source:BEA,BLS,HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBank 2. Fed: Overinsured? The policy rate has moved below policy rules after lastyear's "insurance"cuts Source: FRB, BLS, CBO, Haver Analytics, Deutsche Bank The gap between current policy and rule prescriptions isnoticeable on current data and near-term forecasts Note: The right chart shows policy rule prescriptions using mid-2027 economic forecasts minus thecurrent fed funds rate. Source: FRB, BLS, CBO, Haver Analytics, Deutsche Bank coutatneFeanikeratesinzozb?ittustrativeconaitionsTorrate cuts and hikes Illustrative conditions for rate hikes (red) and cuts (green) in 2026 Note: Green represents rate cut scenarios and red represents rate hike scenarios. Source: Deutsche Bank ioexoectatoishave picked up over the past week with the rise in oil prices Note: Chair Warsh did not submit a dot.Theblack dots represent permanent voting members,includingthe Governors2027. All other officials are represented by the gray dots. *Dot submitted by the Atlanta Fed while the search for presidentis ongoing.Source: FOMC, Deutsche Bank near the levels when rate increases occurred in 2022-23 DBhawk-dovescores Ai-aerveaworaclouaspress conferenceand Warsh's first press conference Powell press conference word cloud2-gram Word Clouc 2-qramWordClouc DB's r-star dashboard: Real neutral rate around 1.6% R-star measures Analytics,DeutscheBank Housenolosnaveoeerrate changes; they are predicting rate hikes hewidegapbepredicts rate hikes 3. Growth momentum Fihahciatconaitioiaccommodative and adding to growth LooseTinanclaccgrowth in the US Financial conditions and real private domestic demand Capex expectations have firmed alongside capital goodsshipments Al has been an important driver of capex in recent quarters 4.Midterms and fiscalpolicy Senate Races to follow: Democrats need a net gain of 4 seatsfor a majority House races to follow: Democrats need a net gain of 3 seatsfor a majority218 Redistricting impact on the House: Redrawing of districts inseveral states may net Republicans between 2 - 11 seats Louisiana,Alabama,andTennesseeresult in 16Republicanpick-ups,whilenewmapsinCaliforniaanoUtah result in five Democratic pick-ups. Republicans would flip 11 seats, on net. A best-case scenario for Democrats: new maps in Texas, Missouri, Louisiana, Tennessee, Alabama andFlorida result in eight Republican pick-ups, while new maps in California and Utah also allow Democrats toflip six seats, resulting in Republicans netting two seats. President's party typically loses seats in the midterms. Magnitudeof losses historically correlated with the President's approval rating Betting markets assigning Dems 78% chance to win theHouse and 42% for the Senate Budget deficit to remain historically elevated, particularly inan economy with a relatively healthy labor market turneanegativeasrefunasoutstrip tariff revenues 5. Al's impact on the labormarket Layoffs - and churn - have picked up in some sectors withhigh Al adoption (see Information, including tech) Emergingeviaenceorain layoff rates (since 2019) and Al adoption Layoffs vs.Al adoption fortask replacement LayoffsversusAladoptionJOLTS layoffs &discharge rate:latest 3mma minus 2019 Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, Deutsche Bank Sectors with higher Al adoption have shown moresignificant deceleration in wage growth on average Source: BLS, Census, Haver Analytics, Macrobond, Deutsche Bank The rise in the unemployment rate