亚太油气：中国石油储备能维持多久？

Bernstein Energy: How long can China's oil stockpile last? Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to roughly one-third ofpre-conflict levels but remain highly volatile.Oil exports reached approximately6.5MMbbls/d by the end of June after collapsing to zero, but remain well below pre-conflictlevel of 20MMbls/d. While flows recovered gradually, recent comments around the end ofthe US-Iran ceasefire and ongoing security concerns continue to suggest a volatile path tonormalization. Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com China’s crude oil imports have fallen by 6MMbls/d (-45%) from 11MMbls/d pre-conflict to just 5MMbls/d.China has played a critical role in absorbing the disruption,helping prevent a more severe tightening of global oil balances. Since March, China’scumulative import losses amount to roughly 3.4MMbbls/d or c.400MMbls. Kelvin Yuan, Ph.D., CFA+852 2123 2612kelvin.yuan@bernsteinsg.com Part of the crude import shortfall has been offset through weaker refinery activityand reduced product exports.China's crude runs have declined by approximately3MMbbls/d from peak levels since March, while refined product exports have fallen byroughly 50% to around 0.3MMbbls/d. Diesel and gasoline exports have largely fallen tonegligible levels. China’s crude oil inventories have started to decline since May.We estimate inventorydraws accelerated from around 30MMbbls in May to approximately 70MMbbls in June andcould approach 100MMbbls in July if current import trends persist. This implies China iscurrently absorbing the equivalent of roughly 3MMbbls/d through inventory withdrawals.We estimate inventories declined from approximately 1,510MMbbls at the end of May andcould fall further to around 1,336MMbbls by the end of July if current trends persist. At current import run rate, China will likely seek to refill inventories by 4Q26.Priorto the conflict, China held crude inventories equivalent to roughly 90 days of demand,providing one of the largest inventory buffers globally. If imports remain at approximately5MMbls/d, inventories could continue drawing by around 100MMbbls per month, reducinginventory coverage to roughly 60 days in 4Q26. At that point, China's ability to continueabsorbing the disruption would be materially diminished, potentially increasing pressure onglobal oil balances and supporting a stronger restocking cycle. Oil equities do not reflect either the ongoing supply disruption or inventoryrestocking. At our long-term oil price assumption of US$75/bbl, the sector offersattractive upside of approximately 25%. Among our coverage, CNOOC, PetroChina, andSantos offer the greatest upside based on current share prices. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Oil flows through the Straits of Hormuz remain a fraction of pre-war levels. Despite this, oil markets appear to be pricing in anoptimistic resolution to the conflict with Brent back in the US$70s. While price has rebounded over the last few days to justunder US$80/bbl, oil price remains well below peak levels seen at the height of the conflict. A key reason that oil price hasn’tincreased more is due to China. China has voluntary cut seaborne crude imports from 11MMbls/d to just under 5MMbls/daccording to latest data we have tracked. This has increased the amount of crude available to other countries and reduced thedrawdown on global inventories. The reason China can do this is the 1.5bn bbl crude reserve (commercial and strategic) it hadbuilt up prior to the conflict. It is now drawing down on those reserves. Based on our estimates, we think the drawdown ratecould be approaching 100MMbls per month. Assuming China is willing to draw down to 60 days supply cover (roughly 1bn bbls),then China could keep imports at current levels until 4Q (October/November) before it would have to ramp up imports again.While it seems probable that the conflict will be over by then, there is a possibility that the status quo could prevail which meansthat as China ramps up purchases of crude at the end of the year and start to tighten the market. On balance, we still believe thatmarket is underestimating the risks and that oil equities offer good value at current price levels. Among our coverage, CNOOC,PetroChina and Santos offer the greatest upside based on current share prices DETAILS The US-Iran conflict has severely disrupted liquids flows through the Strait of Hormuz. From March 1 to June 30, flows werereduced by 15.4MMbbls/d, equivalent to roughly 1.88bn barrels of lost supply. This has created cascading effects across theregion: Gulf export barrels have been displaced, Asian imports have weakened materially, floating storage has been drawndown, and pressure has intensified on alternative trade routes already constrained by Red Sea insecurity. While exports throughHormuz partially recovered to approximately 6.5MMbls/d by the end of June, this remains only around on