中国汽车制造商：乘联会6月更新；出口强劲；新能源车批发略低于预期

China Auto Manufacturers CPCA Jun Update; Export Strong, NEV Wholesale Slight Miss CITI’S TAKEAccording to CPCA, Jun-26NEV-PV wholesalescame at 1.48mn units (+19.2% YoY/+9.6% MoM), slightly missing CPCA expectation of 1.51mnunits; NEV-PV retail at 1.01mn units (-9.4% YoY/+6.0% MoM).PVexportsremained strong at 877k units (+82.3% YoY/+11.5% MoM) in Jun-26, with NEV-PV export volume at 499k units in Jun-26 (+152.7%YoY/+17.6% MoM). NEV export mix increased by +16ppt YoY/+3ppt MoMto 56.9% in Jun. 6M26 PV export was +71% YoY to 4.25mn units, with6M26 NEV export +124% YoY to 2.23mn units. CPCA estimatesPV sectorinventory destockingat around 120k units in Jun-26, with 6M26 sectordestocking of 480k units (vs destocking of 170k units in 6M25). Jeff ChungAC+852-2501-2787jeff.m.chung@citi.com Kyle Wu+852-2501-8483kyle.wu@citi.com Jun-26 sales overview: (1) Jun-26 CPCA PVProduction:2.34mn units (-2.7% YoY/+5.7% MoM), within whichluxury brand production was -13% YoY and +1% MoM. (2) Jun-26 CPCA PVWholesale: 2.36mn units (-5.7% YoY/+6.6% MoM). We estimatePV destocking around 120k units MoM in Jun, derived from wholesales volume of2.36mn minus the sum of retail volume (1.60mn) and export volume (877k). (3) Jun-26 CPCA PVRetailsales: 1.60mn units (-23.2% YoY/+6.1% MoM). (4) Jun-26 CPCAICE PV performance: Jun-26 wholesale registered 877k units, -30%YoY/+2% MoM; Jun-26 retail sales volume at 595k units, -39% YoY/+6% MoM. (5) Jun-26 CPCAluxury sales: Retail sales came in at 170k units, -30% YoY/+3%MoM. (6)NEV PV wholesale: Jun-26 NEV PV wholesale logged 1.48mn units, +19.2%YoY/+9.6% MoM. 6M26 NEV PV wholesale reached 6.79mn units (+5.1% YoY). TotalJun-26 NEV penetration reached 62.8%, +13.1ppt YoY/+1.7ppt MoM. Jun-26 BEV PVwholesale came in at 981k units, +26.9% YoY/+10.7% MoM; PHEV PV (excl. EREV) at406k units, +18.1% YoY/+9.3% MoM; EREV PV at 94k units, -25.2% YoY/-0.2% MoM.Jun-26 B-segment BEV wholesale volume was +37% YoY/+8% MoM, and A00 classBEV sales volume was -50% YoY/-11% MoM. (7)Jun-26 Tesla sales: Domestic wholesale reached 89,091 units (Model Y: 56,454,Model 3: 32,637), +24% YoY/+4% MoM, of which Tesla’s export volume accountedfor 36,171 units (+258% YoY/-7% MoM), suggesting Jun-26 domestic retail sales(excl. exports) to be around 52.9k units (-14% YoY/+11% MoM). (8) PerCPCA-Retail salesbenchmark, Jun-26 NEV-PV retail reached 1.01mn units (-9.4% YoY/+6.0% MoM). 6M26 NEV PV retail reached 4.70mn units (-14.0% YoY).Retail penetration was at 62.8% in Jun-26 (+9.5ppts YoY/-0.1ppts MoM). (9)Jun-26 Export PV: PV export registered 877k units (+82.3% YoY/+11.5% MoM) inJun-26, with 6M26 PV export +71% YoY to 4.25mn units. Total NEV-PV export volume logged 499k units in Jun-26 (+152.7% YoY/+17.6% MoM), with 6M26 NEV export +124.3% YoY to 2.23mn units. NEV exportmix increased by +16ppt YoY to 56.9% in Jun. If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS +1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designatedby “AC” in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple ACanalysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than(a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solelywith respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts orrating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the reportfor which they are responsible: (1) that the views expressed therein accurately reflect their personal views about eachissuer and security referenced and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to Citigroup GlobalMarkets Inc. and its affiliates; and (2) no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly orindirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in this report. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Analysts’ compensation is determined by Citi Research management and Citigroup’s senior management and is based uponactivities and services intended to benefit the investor clients of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and its affiliates (the “Firm”).Compensation is not linked to specific transactions or recommendations. Like all Firm employees, analysts receivecompensation that is impacted by overall Firm profitability which includes investment banking, sales and trading, andprincipal trading revenues. One factor in equity research analyst compensation is arranging corporate access events betweeninstitutional clients and the management teams of covered