美元在大型科技股抛售中的反应及ILS/KRW投资策略

Oliver HarveyMacro Strategist+44-20-754-51947 The dollar reaction to a major tech sell-off is somewhat ambiguous. On the onehand, the resulting tightening of financial conditions could result in safe haveninflows. On the other, the Fed would likely see a dovish repricing and equity inflowsinto the US, an increasingly important source of financing for the US currentaccount deficit, might come under pressure. Although the cross isn't typically traded that often, we see being short ILS/KRW asan interesting alternative. Last month, this hit record high levels and the cross hasrallied an astonishing 50% since mid-2024, the same period where hyperscalerstocks saw dramatic gains (Figure 1). This might seem counter-intuitive. Both Israel and Korea are highly geared to theglobal tech cycle from an economic perspective (the former largely on account ofsoftware, and the latter both software and hardware). But an understanding ofhowtech translates into equity flows provides an answer. The shekel's correlation withUS equities is highly positive. This owes to both the country's tech exports doingwell (some of which are repatriated into domestic currency) and the domesticinstitutional investor base's long exposure in US tech equities. When these rally,local investors tend to rebalance some of their portfolios back into shekel or hedgetheir dollar exposure. By contrast, while the won's traditional relationship with the Kospi was positive,this has changed over recent months (Figure 2). As our colleagues in Asia havehelpfully illustrated in recent notes, tech-led gains in the Kospi have led foreigninvestors to rebalanceawayfrom Korean equities or hedge more of their wonexposure.Domestic rebalancing and hedging drives the shekel,foreignrebalancing and hedging has recently been driving the won. This is very evident inrelative equity flows (Figure 3). In the event of a big tech sell-off this cross could see a sharp pullback. It alreadymatches the world's most expensive currency on our models and the world'scheapest (Figure 4). Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies,and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research, please visit our globaldisclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from withinthis report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or viewin this report. Oliver Harvey. 8 July 2026FX Blog Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively 'DeutscheBank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to bereliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to third-party websites in thisreport are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content nor is responsible for theaccuracy or security controls of those websites. If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in this report, oris included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Bank may act asprincipal for its own account or as agent for another person. Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for its own accountor with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others within Deutsche Bank,including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those taken in this researchreport. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of communication may differ fromrecommendations contained in others, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, perspectives orotherwise. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliates may also be holding debt or equity securities of the issuers it writes on. Analystsare paid in part based on the profitability of Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliates, which includes investment banking, tradingand princip