下调预测：短期小幅过剩，后期供过于求

Global thereafter on faster normalisation and return to surplus by 4Q Senior Global Oil &Gas AnalystHSBC Bankplckim.fustier@hsbc.com+44 20 3359 2136SadnanAli*,CFA refilling; higher than pre-crisis on stronger supply growth Global Oil &Gas AnalystHSBC Bank plcsadnan.ali@hsbc.com+442079910569Ildar Khaziev*, CFA + Assuming Gulf exports normalise by end-3Q, stocks mayreturntoFeb-26levelsbyend-1Q27andtestnewhighs Senior EM Oil &Gas andUtilities AnalystHSBC Bank plcildar.khaziev@hsbc.com+442079923302Evan Li* andtoUSD65/bfor2027(fromUSD75/b),revertingtoourpre-conflictlong-termanchor.Therevision reflects afasterrebalancingof the oil market that began beforethe US-lran MoU and accelerated with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Ourbase case assumes a return to normal Gulf exports by end-Sept., with Hormuz trafficrecovering to c80% of pre-conflict levels and bypass pipelines operating at full capacity. Head, Asia Energy Transition ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedevan.m.h.li@hsbc.com.hk+85229966619Lilyanna Yang, CFA Analyst,LatAmOil&Gas,Utilities,PetrochemsHSBC Securities (USA) Inclilyanna.yang@us.hsbc.com+1212525 0990Puneet Gulati*,CFA barrels has outpaced themarket's abilityto absorb them.We expect this overhang tofade as thebacklog ofstrandedtankers clears and strategicreserve releaseswinddown, but the reprieve looks temporary.Once flows normalise,ourbalances pointtothe market returning to surplus from4Q26 onwards. Senior Analyst, India Energy, Property & InfraHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedpuneetgulati@hsbc.co.in+918291897591 By end-1Q27, global oil stocks could return to their February 2026 peaks, erasing theMarch-to-Sept drawdowns, and then continue climbing towards potentially new highs.We estimate a cyclical surplus of 3.7mbd could emerge (vs the IEA's 5mbd estimate),with some partial offset from inventory refilling demand of 1-2mbd. However, refillneeds are unlikely to absorb the full scale of the implied oversupply. notregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulations The 2027 oversupply has widened vs the pre-Hormuz baseline. Supply growth hasaccelerated aftermonths ofhigher oil prices,notably in US shale,and the UAE's exitfromOPEC increases the risk of capacity being monetised more readily.Non-OPECgrowth revisions are concentrated in the Americas -Brazil, Argentina, Guyana andCanada. In parallel, Gulf bypass infrastructure looks structural and is beingexpanded, lowering the level of Hormuz traffic required to restore export volumes. China's steep import pullback helped contain the shock, but we now think part of thedeclineis durable,reflectingelectrificationand coal-to-chemicals substitution.WelowerourChina demand assumptionbyc0.5mbdfor2027+vs ourpre-crisisview. Refined productmarkets remain tighter than crude,given limited slack in globalrefining and lower inventories, and we expect product tightness to persist through2H26beforesomenormalisationin2027 Upside risks centre on a slowerand morevolatile recovery in Hormuz traffic andGulfupstreamoutput,andstrongerChinesebuyingorinventoryrefillingdemandDownside risks would be driven by a faster normalisation in flows and production, amore structural China demand shortfall, stronger non-OPEC growth (including post-OPECUAEvolumes),oraquickerunwindofremainingOPEC+restraint. Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plc Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBC Global InvestmentResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com Return of the surplus thereafteronfasternormalisationand returntosurplusby4Q Cyclical surplus of 3.7mbd in 2027, partly offset by inventory refilling;higherthan pre-crisis on strongersupplygrowthAssuming Gulf exports normalise by end-3Q, stocks may return toFeb-26 levels by end-1Q27 and test newhighs Cuttingoilpriceforecasts Inthisreport,wecutourBrentpriceforecasttoUSD80/bfor2026(vsUSD95/bpreviously)We reduce our assumption for 2027 to USD65/b (from USD75/b), in line with our forecastsfrom January 2026 before the Middle East conflict. The revision reflects a faster rebalancing of the global oil market, which started before theUs-lran memorandum of understanding in mid-June and accelerated with the reopening of theStrait of Hormuz. We continue to assume a return to normal Gulf exports by the end ofSeptember, with Hormuz traffic recovering to c80% of pre-conflict levels and bypass pipelinesstaying at full capacity. The rebalancing has been helped by weaker demand, notably fromChina, and strong exports from outside the Gulf.Post-reopening,we expect some demandforecastatthebeginningoftheyear. In Oil markets: Gulf barrels return: 'mini-glut' emerges amid deficit (26 June), we discussed thenear-term"mini-glut"of oil due to the exit of stranded tankers from the Gulf at a faster pace thanthe market is able to absorb them. This mini-glut should fade