东盟视角：双赤字困境——能源与AI的角力

ASEANPerspectives someASEANeconomiestoexternalshocksvia“twindeficits” +Singaporeand Malaysiaare likelyto see widercurrentaccountsurpluses,ridingontheAlboom Apart from Singapore, which will runafiscal surplus,most ofthe region is likely to see wider fiscal deficits this year SeniorASEAN EconomistThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedyun.liu@hsbc.com.hk+85228224297Aris Dacanay The“twin deficit"channel. There seem to bemore reasons for the market to cheerup with the FIFA World Cup and the recent oil price drop below USD80/barrel.However,we arefar from claiming the victory:many of ASEAN's currencies arefacing FX depreciation pressures.While there are different factors shaping exchangerate movements,high energyprices have exposed, if not exacerbated, vulnerabilitiesinsomeASEANeconomies'fundamentalsvia“twindeficitwhereacountryfacesfiscal and current account deficits simultaneously.Indonesia andthe Philippinesaretraditionallylocked inthis situation,whileMalaysia,Vietnam and Thailand havebeen running fiscal deficits with small current account surpluses. Singapore is theexception,runninga huge currentaccount surplus and consistentfiscal surplus inreality. We explore how the "twin deficit" dynamics have evolved since the oil shock. SeniorASEAN EconomistThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedaris.dacanay@hsbc.com.hk+852 39451247Pranjul Bhandari Chief India Economist/Strategist, ASEAN EconomistThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Singapore Branchpranjul.bhandari@hsbc.com.sg+6566584976 Aayushi ChaudharyEconomist, India, Indonesia& Sri LankaHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitedaayushi.chaudhary@hsbc.co.in+9122 2268 5543 Current account: the Al boost.While 1Q26 data does not fully capture the picture,trade data offers some clue.The tech duo, Singapore and Malaysia, have seenwider current account surpluses, thanks to Al-related trade.But Vietnam andThailand have not benefited to the same extent. In fact, both have been sufferingfrom trade deficits. While it is tempting to blame on energy, electronics componentsimports are the main culprit.By contrast, Indonesia and the Philippines are facingcurrent account pressures, with both seeing higher capital imports.The former islikelytosee wider currentaccountdeficit, but thefallout inpublic infrastructurespending should keep the latter's current account dynamics contained this year. Madhurima NagAssociateBangalore Fiscal deficit: loosening the belt? The fiscal picture is a lot clearer in the region: allcountries except Singapore run fiscal deficits.While Singapore's constitutionrequires a balanced budget over a government term, it has a track record of runningfiscal surpluses and remains in the best fiscal position in the region to provide themuch-needed support. But it is not the same for the ASEAN emerging markets. Manyhave introduced energy subsidies to shield them from the oil impact, but the marketseems to have fewer concerns on thefiscal risks in Malaysia and Thailand thanIndonesia.That said, Indonesia has quickly responded with policy recalibrations,rationalising spending on free meal schemes and raising unsubsidised petrol prices. Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited ViewHSBC Global Investment Researchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com Decoding the“twin deficits"dynamics In a year not short of challenges,thearrival of the long-anticipated FIFA World Cup may havedistractedonebrieflyfromthereality.However,theimpactoftheMiddleEastconflictremains,despite the recent US-lran deal. While the market has been cheering, with Brent oil pricesdropping below USD80/barrel from its peak of USD140/barrel, the durability of the deal and howmuch energy prices will materially fall to reverse the inflation shock remains to be seen (see:Asia Economics Comment, 15 June). In AsEAN, many of the currencies have been facing pressures (Chart 1). While there areexacerbated, vulnerabilities in some AsEAN economies to external shocks through“twindeficit"-where a country faces both fiscal and current account deficits simultaneously. Given the diversity of ASEAN, not all are facing the situation (Chart 2). The only two economiesthat have been long locked in "twin deficit" are Indonesia and the Philippines, thedomestically-oriented economies.WhileMalaysia,VietnamandThailandhavefiscal deficitstheyhavebeenrunningsmallcurrentaccountsurpluses.Singapore,theonlydevelopedmarket(DM), is in the best position. For years, Singapore has been running sizeable current accountsurpluses (Chart 3)while sticking to the constitutional rule of a“balanced budget" in agovernment's term. In reality, Singapore, blessed with its fiscal prudence and good economicperformance,hasatrack record of seeing consistentfiscal surpluses,barring the CoviD era,that later go into its strategic reserves. The interesting question is: how has “twin deficit" evolved in ASEAN since the start of the MiddleEast conflict? We strive to pro