花旗全球金属与矿业：中国钢贸商去库停滞 峰值创十年次低后去化速率跌至谷底

Steel distributor inventory drawdown in in China stall continues afterpeakingatthesecondlowestlevelinadecade +44-20-7986-2462ephrem.ravi@citi.comWenyuYao Octoberandthencontinuetodrawdowntill7-8weeksbeforethenextCNY.CNYwason17thFebthisyearand inventorybuild cyclestarted onlyin lateJan.Inventoriesappeartohavepeaked3weeksafterthat(inlinewithhistoric pattern)at 15.4mntonnes theweek.This made 2026 the secondlowestpeakinventoryyear(after2025)inadecadeinChina.However,theinitialrateof drawdownhasbeentheweakestinadecadewithinventoriesdownonly16%inthe16weeksafterpeak(comparedto29%average),thesecond siowest drawdown rate since 2012.A normal destocking cycleshould haveinventoriesataround 11mntonnesbymid-June(currentlyat12.9mntonnes) +44-20-7986-4551wenyu.yao@citi.comJackShang,CFA jack.shang@citi.com krishan.agarwal@citi.com tom.mulqueen@citi.com Inventoriespeakedat15.4tonnesin26,5%highery/y,22%lowerthanthe10yearaveragepeak,andthesecond lowestpeakadecadeChinese steelinventories have a fairly predictable pattern-start building 7-8before the CNYholiday,typicallypeak2-4weeksaftertheCNYholidayandthendrawdown till mid-autumn when there is a small build around the golden week and continue to drawdown further.Lower the inventory levels peak during theCNY, the tighter the steelmarket gets during the peak demand season of spring and late autumn. In“26inventoriespeakedat15.4mntonnes,the second lowestpeak since2017. ShashiShekhar, CFAshashi.shekhar@citi.com OmnathSinhomnath.sinh@citi.com Kenny Xunyuan Hu, CFAkenny.x.hu@citi.com 2025 was unusual in that inventories picked up during the golden week holiday,andthepeaktotroughdrawofonly34%-Thiscomparestoanaveragedrawof48%overthelasttwodecadesand54%intheprioryear(2024) Shreyas Madabushishreyas.madabushi@citi.com ljeoma Ihuegbujeoma.ihuegbu@citi.com Rateofdrawdown in'26sofartheslowest inoveradecadeLookingattheaverages of the 15years,inventories are down29% in sixteen weeks after thepostCNY peak (range:13%-46%).In2026 inventories were downonly16%during thatperiod,thesecond slowestina decade.Lookingforward,theaveragedrawis 48%toyear-end. Anna Wanganna.d.wang@citi.com Anormal destocking cycle would have distributor inventoriesat around 11mntonnes by mid-June-Distributorinventorythisweekwasat12.9mntonnes.Aslowrate ofinventory drawdown limits theupsideto steelprices intoyear-end. China Steel DistributorInventories Source: Citi Research, Bloomberg ofthegraphicsinthisdocument,pleasecallUSA1-888-500-5008(TTY:711),fromoutsidetheUS+1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 Theresearchanalystsprimarilyresponsibleforthepreparationand contentofthisresearchreport areeither(i)designated analystsaredesignatedintheauthorblock,eachanalystiscertifyingwithrespecttotheentireresearchreportotherthan(a)contentattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystlistedinboldalongsidethecontentand(b)viewsexpressedsolelywithrespecttoaspecificissuerwhichareattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystidentified inthepricechartsorratinghistorytablesforthatissuershown below.Each oftheseanalysts certify,with respecttothe sectionsofthereportforwhichtheyareresponsible:(1)thattheviewsexpressedthereinaccuratelyreflecttheirpersonalviewsabouteachissuerand securityreferencedandwere preparedinan independent manner,includingwith respecttoCitigroup GlobalMarketsInc.and its affiliates;and (2)nopartoftheresearchanalyst'scompensationwas,is,orwill be,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedbythatresearchanalystinthisreport.IMPORTANTDISCLOSURES Analysts'compensationis determined by Citi ResearchmanagementandCitigroup'sseniormanagementand isbasedupon activities and services intended tobenefit theinvestorclients of CitigroupGlobal MarketsInc.and its affiliates (the“Firm").Compensationisnot linkedtospecifictransactionsorrecommendations.Likeall Firmemployees,analystsreceivecompensation that is impacted byoverallFirm profitabilitywhich includes investment banking,sales and trading,andprincipaltradingrevenues.Onefactorinequityresearchanalystcompensation isarrangingcorporateaccesseventsbetweenparticipatewhentheanalysthasapositiveviewofthecompany.Forfinancial instruments recommended in the Product in which the Firm is not amarket maker,the Firm is a liquidityprovider in suchfinancialinstruments(andanyunderlyinginstruments)andmayactasprincipalinconnectionwithtransactionsinrecommended in the Product. The Firm regularly trades in the securities of theissuer(s) discussed in the Product. The Firm mayProduct,will buyorsell from customers onaprincipal basis.Unless stated otherwiseneitherthe ResearchAnalyst noranymemberof theirteamhas viewed thematerialoperations ofthe Companiesforwhichaninvestmentviewhasbeenprovidedwithinthepast12months.Forimportantdisclosures (includingcopies ofhistorical disclosures)regardingthe companies thatarethe subjectofthis Citi Researchproduct("theProduct"),pleasecontactCitiResearch,388GreenwichStreet,6thFloor,NewYork,NY,10013,Attention:Legal/Compliance[E6WYB6412478].Inaddition,thesameimportant