Project Insight：揭示全球价值链的复杂性

Uncovering the complexitiesof global value chains July 2026 Contents Executive summary4 1. Introduction 6 2. Current gaps in monitoring global value chains8 3. Project objectives and scope11 4. Data selection13 4.1.Commercial data: maritime shipments, supply chainrelationships, entity attributes and vessel tracking 5. Solution architecture and data preprocessing19 5.1.Solution architecture195.2.Data preprocessing20 6. Analytics and visualisation30 6.1.Overview of global supply chains316.2.Aggregate time series trends336.3.Resilience and bottlenecks356.4.Trade exposure and concentration386.5.Network metrics41 7. Conclusion44 References Contributors and acknowledgements48 Executive summary Global value chains (GVCs) underpin production and trade with direct implicationsfor the real economy and financial system, yet they remain poorly understood at thegranular level. Limited visibility into these complex, firm‑level supply chain networkscan obscure vulnerabilities, with risks remaining undetected until they materialiseand shape macroeconomic outcomes such as growth, inflation and financial stability.Recent shocks such as the Covid-19 pandemic have highlighted the risks of thislack of transparency. For central banks and policymakers, the challenge is clear –aggregate statistics cannot capture the intricate firm‑to‑firm relationships or theearly structural shifts that shape GVC dynamics well before they appear in headlinedata. This lack of visibility matters because shocks propagate through these networksin ways that can amplify inflationary pressures, mask concentration risks and createcorrelated balance sheet exposures with spillovers to credit markets and asset prices.In an increasingly interconnected global economy, understanding and monitoringGVC dependencies can therefore support central banks in their core mandate tosafeguard monetary and financial stability. Project Insight attempts to address this gap by developing a proof of concept(PoC) dashboard to enhance the monitoring of GVC developments. The projectwas conducted in collaboration with project partners – the Hong Kong MonetaryAuthority (HKMA), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD) and DIW Berlin. It also brought together a global observing-memberstakeholder group of supply chain experts across central banks, internationalorganisations, academia and the private sector. The development was grounded inuser needs, drawing on continuous feedback from this international expert group toidentify concrete monitoring challenges and data gaps faced by central banks andother policymaking institutions. Leveraging a snapshot of historical, granular supply chain data from 2018 to 2024,Project Insight integrates various detailed, commercial data sets on firm‑to‑firmactivity with publicly available macroeconomic information. These inputs weretransformed into a harmonised suite of foundational GVC metrics, covering cross-sectional and time series trends, trade exposure and concentration risks, resilienceand bottlenecks, and network centralities. These metrics spanned multiple layers ofgranularity of the supply chain network, from entity-to-entity up to economy-to-economy levels. A custom-designed interactive dashboard was built leveraging open source toolsto feature the data and analytics. The dashboard is equipped with interactive filtersacross the time, product, economy and trading-direction dimensions. This front-endinterface was developed using a modern, component-based architecture, enablingmodular design and reusable interface elements that can be flexibly extended asnew data and metrics are incorporated, allowing this dashboard to be used for otherpurposes. The dashboard enables potential users to drill down from aggregatepatterns to specific sectors, counterparties or relationships, supporting both highlevel monitoring and more detailed analytical exploration. To support adaptability,this report includes a level of technical detail on data and methodology that may beof particular interest to analytical and research audiences. The PoC demonstrates how granular firm‑to‑firm data can support more timelyand informed policy decisions. For example, it could improve the assessment ofinflationary pressures driven by global supply chain conditions and help to identifyhidden concentrations and transmission risks that could impact financial stability.In addition, Project Insight distils a set of practical approaches to data cleaning,core metrics and visualisation that policymakers can adapt and build on usingtheir own data sets and use cases. Rather than addressing a single policy question,the PoC prioritised the development of robust data structures and a standardisedtechnological and analytical foundation that can be adapted to a wide range ofpolicy, research and risk monitoring applications. This enables deeper and moretimely visibility into evolving supply chain structures, supports the identificationof emerging risk