美国通信基础设施与全球数字资产：数据中心与新型云：兆瓦价值几何

Data Centers & Neoclouds: How much is a megawatt worth? Almost every time a splashy GPU cloud or colocation contract hits, we get questions onwhether that is a “good deal”. Today, we look at the $/MW of the public data center andneocloud companies, in addition to benchmarking the publicly announced deals with otherprivate providers. We continue to prefer the colo model to the neocloud model, but canappreciate that some neocloud contracts are quite attractive, particularly when the neocloudowns its own real estate. Madison Rezaei+1 917 344 8622madison.rezaei@bernsteinsg.com Gautam Chhugani+91 226 842 1416gautam.chhugani@bernsteinsg.com Revenue/MWis a frequently assessed metric for both colo and cloud deals (not alwaysrightly so). It can vary dramatically by business model, location of capacity, time to service,contract duration, and size of deal. We’ve seen ranges from <$1M to $55M/MW.Generally, neocloud models look attractive on a revenue basis with very high $/MW, butwhen you layer in opex, actual performance varies. Nancy Wu+1 917 344 8545nancy.wu@bernsteinsg.com Mahika Sapra+91 226 842 1408mahika.sapra@bernsteinsg.com Colocation model:landlord-style REITs sell powered capacity on long-term leases - eitheron more of a retail or wholesale basis. They serve a broad base: enterprise, hyperscaler,and sometimes neocloud customers, anchoring pricing and utilization. Increasingly, wesee emerging AI infra providers (WULF, CIFR) playing with this model. The highest revenueper MW in this space unsurprisingly belongs to EQIX ($5M/MW), who has a retail-focusedmodel, layering services and interconnection revenue on top of a valuable major metrofootprint. More wholesale-type models end up in the $3-$4M range, with the emergingentrants lower on a per-MW basis than the established REITs. This likely has to do withavailable capacity and location—DLR, EQIX, and CoreSite all have strong footprints in topmarkets and can sell capacity immediately, whereas the emerging players are in more ruralareas and mostly preselling for yet-to-be-completed builds. Sanskar Chindalia+91 226 842 1445sanskar.chindalia@bernsteinsg.com Harsh Misra+91 226 842 1457harsh.misra@bernsteinsg.com GPU cloud model:The main players in this space are CRWV, NBIS, and IREN, though weare seeing other non-neocloud players announce competitive large-scale deals. Sincethe neoclouds are offering a vertically integrated solution, monetizing the same MWs withhardware and services on top of the real estate, the $/MW levels are higher. Scarce/near-term capacity, fungible terms, and shorter contract durations or flexible contract-outs (forexample, 90-day terms instead of traditional 5-year leases) increase the value per MW. Return differences:Colocation providers are relatively asset-heavy but OpEx-light;while they incur the upfront cost of developing and building facilities, once a data center isstabilized, ongoing operating costs are comparatively low. A significant portion of powerand facility-related OpEx is either passed through to customers or embedded within leasestructures. By contrast, neocloud providers are RE-light (generally, some are buildingthemselves) but remain capital-intensive as they bear the cost of GPU purchases and seecorrespondingly high CapEx levels. Across our coverage, we continue to prefer the colo model over the cloud modelfor subscale providers. The emerging AI infra providers represent an interestingcounterpoint to traditional REITs as they look to pursue the same model on a higher-risk, potentially higher-reward basis. Without a ton of history, it’s hard to assessthem on the same basis today. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS U.S. Communications Infrastructure:We value DLR on a Price to Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO) per share multiple.Our $232 price target is based on 27x our 2027E AFFO per share of $8.52. We value EQIX on a Price to Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO) per share multiple. Our $1,222 price target is based on25x our 2027E AFFO per share of $48.63. We value AMT on a Price to NTM Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO) per share multiple. Our $207 price target is based on18x our 2027E AFFO per share of $11.49. We value CRWV on an EV/Adjusted EBIT multiple. Our $67 price target is based on an Enterprise Value calculated as 28.4x our2027E Adj. EBIT per share of $5.81. Bitcoin Miners/Emerging AI Infra: Crypto miners remain well positioned to solve ‘time to compute’ given their planned 30GWpower portfolio and operating ability to deliver ‘warm powered shells’ in time. Over the past two years, miners have contracted6 GW of power capacity to hyperscalers, neoclouds and AI-chip manufacturers across 17 deals worth over $110Bn. Thecontracted 6 GW represents ~20% of the 30 GW pipeline of crypto miners, allowing runway for new contracts. We rate WULFOutperform (PT$36), CIFR Outperform (PT$32), IREN Outperform (PT$100), CORZ Outperform (PT$32), RIOT Outperform (PT$30), CLSK Outperform (PT$24), an