伊朗协议的不确定性威胁到制裁的解除

On June 17, the Trump administration formalized a memorandum of understanding (MOU) withIran to end hostilities, open the Strait of Hormuz, and commit within 60 days to a final deal onbroad sanctions relief and Iran’s nuclear program. The MOU also commits the US to immediatesanctions relief, and as a first, quite significant step, the US Treasury Department authorizedpurchases of Iranian oil without risk of sanctions, including the unprecedented move of allowingIran to use the US financial system until August 21, 2026. Read our publication on OFAC GeneralLicense X for additional information. Whether the rest of the provisions in the MOU will come to fruition, not to mention a final deal, is an open question – althoughtraffic through the strait has picked up in recent days, the first weeks following the signing were rocky with Iran and the UStrading fire, and significant issues must still be negotiated to reach a final deal. Stakeholders should expect the political situationto remain fluid and for changes to the sanctions to come in fits and starts. This alert outlines the key provisions of the deal, the challenges to implementation, and three scenarios projecting how thefuture of the MOU could unfold and their impacts on business. What is in the deal? What are the challenges toimplementation? The administration has not officially released the text to thepublic, but major news outlets have published the language,and the key provisions include the following: A number of things could prevent the parties from securingthese terms. For example, further negotiations could bederailed by MOU violations, or the 60-day sanctions relieffor Iranian oil sales could fail to materialize in a meaningfulway, blocked by existing EU, UK and Swiss sanctions – whichare not eased by US licenses – as well as Financial CrimesEnforcement Network (FinCEN) restrictions on US banksmaintaining correspondent accounts on behalf of Iranianbanks. Even if the parties weather the rocky start, andnegotiations proceed to a final deal, Congress could stilllimit the administration’s ability to deliver on the additionalpromised relief through mandatory sanctions. •Permanent cessation of all military operations, including inLebanon •Immediate 60-day “only” Iranian opening of Strait ofHormuz to commercial traffic, without charge, andengagement with Oman to define the future administrationof the strait •Immediate 60-day US sanctions waivers on Iran’s export ofpetroleum and products, and all associated services, suchas banking, insurance and transportation And if none of that happens, the parties reach a final deal,and the US lifts sanctions and regulatory restrictions andallows for normalized economic relations with Iran, the privatesector around the world could still decide to pass, and coulddo so at any step along the way. Businesses could easilyremain cautious given the whiplash of previous Iran policyreversals (like the first Trump administration’s reimposition ofsanctions following President Obama’s sanctions easing underthe Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)); existingpartner and UN sanctions regimes; global banks’ reluctanceto process transactions with Iran; and legacy implications ofrisks associated with banking in Iran, including broad economicentanglements with designated groups like the IranianRevolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hezbollah and Hamas.1 •US unfreezing of Iranian funds held abroad – “uponimplementation” of the agreement– which Iran may use topay any party it chooses •Iran’s commitment to not procure or develop nuclearweapons, and to dispose of its stockpiled enriched nuclearmaterial pursuant to a “mutually agreed mechanism” •US commitment under the final deal to terminate allsanctions against Iran, including UN sanctions, and todevelop with Gulf partners a US$300 billion reconstructionplan for Iran How could this all unfold and what does it mean for businesses? To consider the implications of the MOU and a final deal for businesses, we consider three scenarios of how the initialagreement and final deal could unfold. Scenario 1: The MOU generally holds and the parties agree to a final deal based on its provisions Iran agrees to permanent and verifiable denuclearization, and, in response, receives broad US and international sanctionsrelief. Assuming many private sector actors around the world, including US companies, judge that the agreement willbe durable, they begin to explore opportunities in Iran, which has vast development needs. Iran can export oil withoutsanctions impediments, get paid in the currency of its choice, including US dollars, and rebuild its foreign reserves, someof which it spends on economic development and bilateral trade. These funds are held in Iranian banks, not in externalaccounts. Iran also reestablishes banking connections with other countries (likely limited at first), which further enableforeign investment to flow to Iran. Wild cards •Financing terrorism– The MOU establishes