2026年7月7日亚太市场观点

Tuesday, 07 July 2026 Top Call | Country Top Calls | Key Rating and Target Price Changes TopCall Taiwan Semiconductors - Mediatek and GUC riding on Google; Alchip moreback-end loaded and capacity allocation is key Investors have been optimistic about AI ASIC surpassing GPU in AI computingsince last year, yet due to a more fragmented supply chain and tightcomponent/material supply, such as wafer foundry, advanced packaging, HBMand ABF, we expect Taiwanese design service companies with better supply chainmanagement capability to stand out with positive growth outlooks into 2027. Weexpect Mediatek and GUC to see the strongest AI ASIC growth momentum intonext year. We prefer Mediatek most thanks to its higher value content upside withits increasing contribution from I/O, top die and potentially optics and memorycustom based die in the longer term. Laura (Chia Yi) Chen India Diversified Industrials and Defense - 1Q Preview: Navigating Cost Drags;+ve CW on Bharat Electronics We expect continued short-cycle strength for the electrification/DC-exposednames, with YoY order inflow comps augmented by price hikes. On margins, weexpect a mixed print for our coverage (Cummins, BHE likely outliers on marginresilience), though we note incrementally some of the key input costs have started easing and price hikes start offsetting. For L&T, we expect a soft quarter on MiddleEast impact, but more importantly, focus now moves to the potential pace of a 2Hrecovery. For defense, the demand backdrop remains constructive: FY26 closedwith strong DAC approvals of ~Rs6.7trn, followed by Rs520bn on 3rd July.Weopen a 90-day positive catalyst watch on Bharat Electronics. Mohit Pandey | Anusha Madireddy India Electrical Equipment - China OEM approval: Execution tailwind; Not acompetitive threat Media reports indicate that the government has approved four Chinese OEMs withIndian manufacturing operations to participate in Government T&D tenders for atwo-year period, raising concerns around increased competition. We view thisas execution-positive rather than competitively disruptive — the approval isnarrow in scope, confined to segments with insufficient domestic capacity, andunlikely to extend to products where supply is adequate. Rather than enablingaggressive market-share gains, we see this primarily easing supply-sidebottlenecks — particularly in GIS — supportive of faster project execution. For ourT&D OEM coverage universe, read-through remains limited, underpinned byrobust order backlogs and a growing export revenue base. Anusha Madireddy | Mohit Pandey Kingboard Laminates Holdings (1888.HK) - Higher-than-expected ASP Inflationof 15% on CCL and Others in July; Raise TP to HK$130 KBL announced it raised ASP of 15% on FR4 CCL, 10% on CEM CCL, 15% onprepreg. More significantly, KBL started to inflate value-added profit margin ofcopper foil at Rmb 5 / kg at 1.5oz and Rmb8 / kg at 2oz, which implies over 25%price inflation. In view of higher-than-expected inflation, we raise our earningsestimates by 11-12% during 2026-28E and lift our TP to HK$130 (from HK$120).We think the recent stock correction is dragged by1)market rotation away fromexpensive AI hardware into non-tech given negative sentiment from NVDA kyberdelay (CNBC, 5 July)2)Meta sales of excessive compute power,3)Hallgain, thelargest shareholder, disposed shares. We see the correction as a buyingopportunity with upcoming catalysts1)issuance of 1H26E profit alert would likelybeat due to possibly higher-than-expected ASP of e-glass fabric,2)streetestimate could be upgraded after 1H26E results. Eric Lau KBL 1H26E results preview FR4 CCL spot price expected to rise toRmb350 / sheet (incl tax) thru end-2026 (unitprice HK$ / sheet in following chart onreporting currency) Indonesia Equity Strategy - Investors' Feedback - Conversation Were More Top-down vs Bottom-up We met with close to 30 clients over the past week in Hong Kong and Thailand.Confidence seems to be at risk, not so much earnings, as numbers still appeardecent, but policy flip-flops have eroded trust. Rupiah remains the swing factor;with the market off ~30%, largely pricing in negative news,we think equities have likely bottomed, though many investors seem to favour trading over buy-and-hold. Policy tone is marginally better: off-cycle 25bp hike (total 100bp rate hike),32% fuel-price rise (Ron-92), and free-meal/cooperative cuts should hold thedeficit near 3%. Our FX strategists have positive view on the rupiah. Communication remains the key weakness. MSCI frontier downgrade looksunlikely. BBCA top pick (yield, capital, defensiveness; watch foreign-ownershipexit risk); SOEs' valuation more attractive but carry intervention risk, with export-proceed retention a loan-growth tailwind. Miners could act as barbell strategy,with AMMN and ADMR preferred. Ferry Wong, CFA | Ryan Davis CountryTopCalls Asia FX and Rates Strategy - Philippines Trip Notes – Turbulent times We met various policy makers and private