韩国电商：Coupang 6月GMV增长4%……越富裕不等于双倍买杂货

Korea E-commerce: Coupang June GMV grew 4%...Getting richerdoesn't mean buying groceries twice We share our June GMV update across major e-commerce and food delivery platforms,together with the latest May market data. Recently, investor discussions have centered onone question: Will Coupang benefit as Koreans become wealthier? We believe this is thewrong lens through which to view the opportunity. Instead, the key issue is how spendingpatterns are evolving within Korea's increasingly polarized consumer landscape. In this note,we outline our views on the Korean retail market and assess the respective growth runwaysfor Coupang and Naver. Min-Joo Kang+852 2123 2644minjoo.kang@bernsteinsg.com Robin Zhu+852 2123 2659robin.zhu@bernsteinsg.com Charles Gou+852 2123 2618charles.gou@bernsteinsg.com Korea is getting richer, but not equally.Korea's affluent population continues to expand.The number of high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) reached 576k in 2025 (+3.3% YoY),while their share of the population increased to 0.9% from 0.7% in 2020. At the same time,wealth concentration is accelerating: the top decile now accounts for 46.1% of nationalnet wealth in 2025, up 1.6ppt YoY, while the highest income quintile captured 45.2%of household income in Q1 2026, up 0.8ppt YoY. These trends point to an increasinglypronounced K-shaped economy. Hyrum Caesar+81 3 6777 6979hyrum.caesar@bernsteinsg.com Premium spending is flowing to department stores, not groceries.Affluentconsumers do not simply buy more everyday necessities. Instead, incremental spendingis increasingly concentrated in premium and luxury brands such as Chanel, Van Cleef &Arpels, and Cartier. Semi-durable goods such as fashion continue to outgrow most retailcategories, while department stores (+19% YoY in May) are consistently outperforminghypermarkets (-7% YoY in May) despite serving a narrower customer base. In other words,rising wealth benefits premium retail channels more than mass-market grocery platforms. June data suggests Coupang may be losing share.Coupang's GMV grew 4% YoY inJune, according to Wiseapp data released on July 3. In comparison, Naver's GMV increased14% YoY over the same period. Meanwhile, KOSIS online retail sales data, published on July1, showed 9% YoY market growth (excl. food delivery and auto) in May. Given that Coupangdelivered 10% YoY growth in May, the June result suggests that its growth has deceleratedto only low single-digit levels above, or potentially below, overall market growth. Naver’s share gain story remains intact.Naver's stronger growth performance is beingdriven by its expanding Brand Store ecosystem, which is well positioned to capture demandin item categories such as semi-durable goods. As a result, Naver appears to be gainingshare in higher-value merchandise categories where brand engagement and productdiscovery are key differentiators. Naver appears to be pulling ahead while remaining in fullcombat mode through aggressive pricing and 1P fulfillment investments (Link). Baemin holds the line as Coupang Eats growth normalizes.In food delivery, Baemin(Delivery Hero, covered by Annick Maas) and Coupang Eats posted 10% and 12% YoYGTV growth, respectively, in June, while market shares remained broadly unchanged at63% and 37%. With growth rates converging, Coupang Eats' share gain story appearsto be maturing. The next key strategic question is whether Coupang Eats adopts a 3Pmarketplace model to expand beyond major metropolitan areas (Link). BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate CoupangUnderperformand NaverOutperform. We reiterate our view that in e-commerce, competition ultimately dictates margins. Naver remains firmly in combat mode inCommerce, with recent promotional activity appearing increasingly aggressive. In terms of incremental GMV growth, we believeNaver Brand Store ecosystem is better positioned to capture demand, potentially gaining share. We trimmed our Coupang Q2 estimates to reflect: (1) c.4% YoY revenue growth, impacted by foreign exchange headwinds, and(2) the USD 410 million fine, which we expect to be recognized in Q2 OG&A, reducing operating profit and EPS. We modelledQ2 adjusted EBITDA margin at 2%, in line with management's guidance from the previous earnings call for a consolidatedadjusted EBITDA margin contraction of approximately 300-400 bps YoY. We revised our Naver 2026-2027 EPS estimates slightly due to changes in non-operating costs. VALUATION COMPS TABLE DETAILS KEY CHARTS EXHIBIT 2:Coupang's GMV grew 3.9% in June, meanwhile Naver outpaced it with 14% growth. EXHIBIT 3:Baemin and Coupang Eats posted YoY GTV growth of 10% and 11.8%, respectively, in June 2026. Withgrowth rates converging, Coupang Eats' outsized top-line growth story in food delivery appears largely playedout. COUPANG JUNE GMV GREW 4%...GETTING RICHER DOESN'T MEAN BUYING GROCERIES TWICE EXHIBIT 4:The number of high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) in Korea increased 3.3% YoY to 576,000 in 2025,whi