通胀是否回归？

Isabel SchnabelMember of the Executive Boardof the ECB RubricOil prices expected to stay persistently higher as Strait of Hormuz opens only gradually Number of vessels andlikelihood of reopening of Strait of Hormuz(LHS:percentages; RHS: number of vessels) RubricUncertainty remains high, but announced peace deal makes negative scenarios less likely www.ecb.europa.eu© RubricEnergy shock hit euro area particularly hard but less than in previous oil price shocks RubricStaff projections see lower euro area growth and higher inflation due to Iran war (quarter-on-quarter percentage changes) RubricHigher energy costs are weighing on confidence and private consumption Private consumptionand consumer confidence Change in nominal consumption growthby goods category (lhs: quarter-on-quarter change, rhs: index points) RubricGrowth is supported by government investment and global AI boom German government spendingon defence and infrastructure(monthly year-to-date in % of annual GDP) RubricLabour market remains resilient with cooling labour demand but tight supply Unemployment rate and employment(lhs: percentages; rhs: millions of persons) RubricEnergy price shock can feed into broader inflationary dynamics RubricEnergy price shock can feed into broader inflationary dynamics RubricHigher energy prices have knock-on effects, reinforced by supply chain pressures Supply chain pressure(std deviations) RubricFood, goods and services inflation are facing upside risks Inflation momentum(annualised 3-month-on-3 month percentage changes) RubricProducers pass through part of higher input prices, especially in manufacturing ECB wage tracker(annual percentage changes) (annual percentage changes) RubricECB is expected to raise rates further to bring inflation back to 2% over medium term RubricRising financial stability risks due to stretched risk asset valuations and higher leverage