在线旅游：漏斗顶端深度剖析——谷歌酒店值得分析吗？

Online Travel: Deep dive into the top of the funnel. The lastGoogle Hotels analysis worth doing? ~13,000hotels,across everyUSstateandmajorEuropeancountry.Welookatwhoisbidding towintheonline“auctions,the levelof price competitionandany otherchangesat Google Hotels.The2026iteration isonceagain pro-OTA-postDMAcompetitiononGoogle Hotels has dropped (49%fewerbookingoptions intheUS),organic listings havebeende-prioritized,andfewerdirectoptionsarelisting.TheGoogleHotelproductitselfisalsobecominglessrelevant,withOTAsponsoredspotsdominatingbeforeaconsumerevenreachesthehotelssearchfunction.However,thereremainskeycaveatsfortheOTAs(1)Adisruption is coming-Google is likely tolaunch theiragentic A/travelproduct in the comingweeks(2)Despitefeweroptionspricecompetitionremains-smallerOTAsofferthebestprice 77% ofthe time in the USand58% in Europe, with Super.com (private)particularlyaggressive (3) Thedirectoptions that remain arepushing harder on sponsorship-a sign theyarebecoming more sophisticated in theirdistribution approach. +442076766850richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com +19173448508mark.shmulik@bernsteinsg.com +44 20 7676 7144nillmitchelson@bernsteinsg.com Lasith Siriwardana+44 20 7550 2191lasith.siriwardana@bernsteinsg.com Is Googlehotels relevant?Google hotels is a vastlydifferent producttowhen we wroteour first deep dive into the product. Since 2023 the DMA has wrought sweeping changesto the platform, making it harder for consumers to find the Google Hotels product, andprioritizing search results from those willing to pay to get in front of consumers (surely theopposite of its intended purpose).This hasbeen reflected in our data -there are now fewerOTAs competing for bookings,and direct options are significantlyless likely to list in 2026.SimultaneouslyAlhasbeendisruptinghowconsumerssearchfortravel,pullingconsumersawayfrom the typical"hotels in Paris'search approach,with Google's agentic travel bookingtool likelyto launch within weeks, likelyto push Google Hotels further into obsolescence.As aresult currently westand in the Goldilocks zonefor OTAs,post a drop in competition ontraditional travel search platforms, and before impending disruption from Al. Key conclusions: 1) Organic listings are less relevant - Listings increasingly need to be sponsored to gaintheyhaveleanedintosponsorship(ashaveTripadvisor,whosponsored7O%ofthetime) 2)Options have dropped significantly-There are 49%fewer booking options in the USthan in 2023; either low ranked organic options have steppedaway,or Google are cleaninghouse ahead of its Al product, which will require high quality, reliable inventory. 3)Pricecompetitionstill exists-Despitefewer options,smallerOTAs offerthebestpricein the US 77% of the time, led by Super.com (private). Direct has also increased its pricecompetitiveness particularly in Europe (now 2.2% cheaper than BKNG). 4)Directimprovingrevenuemanagementefforts.Increasedsponsorshipincidence.Direct options are top of the sponsored list in the US 17% of the time, 3X more than in2021, and are more likely to be sponsored than Hotels.com.A sign that those who still list(bigger brands) are improving their revenue management / marketing. and those willing to pay for clicks. Therefore, OTAs have been seen to gain share in both Amadeus data (Exhibit 1) and a recentD-Edge Report (link). However, underneath this headline trend is increased price competition and a directbooking optionincreasingly showing up as the primary booking link for the hotel. This is likely relevant as Google shifts to its Agentic Al modelfor hotels, which is expected in the coming weeks, which willikely make broader searches (e.g.“Hotels Amsterdam") lesscommonand increasepricetransparency. Our previous analysis on Google Hotels:·Online Travel: Deep dive into the top of the funnel. Is Google Hotels losing its relevance? Not yet Online Travel: Deep dive into the top of the funnel. Has Google suddenly become much more (big) OTA friendly?OnlineTravel:Deepdive intothetopofthefunnel.Googledisruptioncontinuesbuthintsofshifttomonetization·Online Travel:Deep dive into thetopof thefunnel.Google continues todrivefragmentation and price competition. OTAs: All change at Google Hotels -a deep dive into the top of the funnel:Online Travel Agencies (OTAs):No moreworlds to conquer.Initiation ofcoverage The Google Hotels product has continued to change,primarily in response to the European Union's Digital Markets Act ("DMA" - (OTAs: DMA findings on Google suggest further tailwinds for OTAs) but there have also been changes in the US to give moreprominencetorevenuemakingproducts (blue-links, carousel)over organic products.InresponsetoDMArequirements, Googlerecent communications from Directorof Legal Oliver Bethell andaccompanyingtestdata,the followingkeyactions havebeenreported: aredisplayed andplacing greater emphasis on intermediarycomparison sites,includingthose operatedby OTAs.Changesinclude: Per Click) models, these listings are displayed for free, with their