美国多行业与电气设备：数据中心及HVAC相关标的覆盖启动反馈

Feedback from our initiation (Data Centers + HVAC): VRT, NVT, TT,JCI, CARR We initiated coverage on US multi-industrials in early June 2026. This note summarizes keythemes, sentiment, and feedback that we are hearing from investors on data center andHVAC names. Our full initiation document can be viewed here. Varun Govindaraj+1 917 344 8543varun.govindaraj@bernsteinsg.com VRT:While we continue to believe in their long-term ability to win, investor sentimenthas certainly skewed more cautious in the run-up to earnings. The last week was a greatexample of volatility we’re seeing. Investor day reception has been tepid, and peoplewe spoke with wonder if the lukewarm guide was a reflection of growth tapering ormanagement conservatism (we lean towards the latter). Regardless, the market expectsa meaningful beat and raise going into 2Q26 to justify the current multiple. 800V DCcontinues to be a major conversation topic given it’s likelihood to create headwinds on Specialist Sales Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com NVT:We’ve heard fewer concerns around valuation vs. Vertiv with more room for positivecatalysts. It largely comes down to how quickly you believe revenue can grow; and givenwe’re still ramping up CDU capacity (and newer generation products are yet to be fullylaunched) we think there’s more headroom to go before we start seeing inflection. Weacknowledge margins have been tight, but expect SP to see expansion from operating TT:Least controversial of all names in our coverage set. The market has a high degree offaith in management and implicitly trusts their ability to deliver. Only pieces of pushbackwere on margins (where we think they will continue to expand) and valuation (which weagree is expensive, but reflects both a premium for reliability and underlying capex growth). JCI:It’s all about the ongoing transformation. Sentiment skews positive here, and we thinkthere’s room for further positive surprises on earnings going into the quarter (consensusstill seems to be guiding below 50% incrementals management highlighted). We often getasked which is the better stock, JCI or Trane. We think JCI has more room for upside but thiscomes with some execution uncertainty from the transformation vs. Trane which is a safer CARR:Valuations have been described as attractive, and the data center story isunarguably impressive (especially with run rate being guided up to $2.5B for that business).But US residential in particular remains a sticking point; there are mixed signals on whetherthe market is inflecting or not (and even if inflecting, if this means growth or just less ofa decline than previously expected). We’re not convinced we’ll see respite yet even witheasier comps and fewer headwinds (e.g., inventory pressure). While the market is likely to BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate VRTOutperformwith a target price of$416. We rate NVTOutperformwith a target price of$218. We rate JCIOutperformwith a target price of$176. We rate CARRMarket-Performwith a target price of$75. DETAILS VERTIV Investor feedback We launched on Vertiv with a positive thesis and long-term belief in their right to win. Our key thesis points were that they havedeep NVIDIA relationships that enable rapid innovation, continue to add capacity to manage the backlog, see growing rack costswhich gives them an edge (since the higher cost of failure pushes demand to safer, more established names), and the marketmore broadly sees ever-increasing demand for AI. We continue to re-iterate this thesis for now. While earlier conversations post-launch skewed more positive, we are increasingly hearing nervousness from the investorcommunity. Jitters are visible in how the share price is trading over the last week; any news and sentiment on the AI tradestrengthening or unwinding has a material impact on the company’s share price. Given Vertiv’s position as the only real “pure Investors highlighted their disappointment in the capital markets day numbers and how that does not justify the current multiple.While we think that this is now priced into the stock after it has corrected from nearly ~40x EV/NTM EBITDA , it does raise somepressure on VRT going into the quarter. Vertiv is guiding 20 - 24% organic growth in 2Q and EPS growth of 44 - 51%, withhigher growth loaded into the back half of the year to get them to ~30% organic. Beat and raise alone will not be enough, it isabout “by how much”. While Vertiv does not report orders anymore, any subjective commentary they can offer here will likelyhelp ease nerves (or not, depending on the commentary). We’ll speak more about that when we release an earnings preview Another major area of consternation is 800V DC. In general, this is a headwind on content because it reduces complexity in thewhite space. We’re not sure if the 3.25 - 3.75 $M / MW number Vertiv shared at their investor day accounts for this headwind.We do believe this is a longer-term issue (800V DC w