可用建模证据概述：用于评估当前埃博拉疫情中本迪布焦病毒的传播规模与潜在扩散范围

Overview of available modelling evidence to informthe scale and potential spread of Bundibugyo virus inthe current Ebola disease outbreak 17 June 2026 Keyfindings •So far in the current outbreak of Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus, international modellingefforts have focused on estimating the outbreak size and near-term trajectories, as well as the risk ofregional and international spread. Multiple modelling groups suggest that the true size of the outbreak is larger than reported. One modelestimated that cumulative infections as of 13 June were between 3.0 and 10.2 times the reportednumber of cases (90% credible interval). Epistorm estimated the relative risk of importation to be highest for Rwanda, Tanzania and Kenya,which together account for approximately 54% of the relative risk. ECDC has estimated the risk ofimportation into the EU/EEA to be low. •The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published scenario modelling analysisresults that estimated a 65% probability that the outbreak will exceed 20 000 cases within threemonths under a scenario where 20% of individuals with Bundibugyo virus infection were isolated and •Current modelling estimates are highly uncertain due to data limitations. Multiple epidemic trajectoriesremain compatible with the available surveillance data, limiting confidence in estimates of outbreak sizeand future trends. Introduction This assessment presents an overview and critical appraisal of the available modelling evidence to inform the scaleand potential spread of Bundibugyo virus (BDBV) in the context of the ongoing Ebola disease outbreak in theDemocratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Uganda. Such modelling efforts can support public health authorities,risk assessors and decision-makers to assess the risk of further spread of BDBV to neighbouring countries or The assessment provides an overview of the identified modelling studies with three areas of focus: •Estimating current outbreak size;•Modelling the risk of geographical spread, including the potential for importation into the EU/EEA;•Scenario modelling and mid-term projections. To support interpretation of these findings, we summarise historical Ebola disease outbreaks, including their finalsize and the countries affected (see Table A, in the Annex). Suggested citation: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Overview of available modelling evidence to inform thescale and potential spread of Bundibugyo virus in the current Ebola disease outbreak. ECDC: Stockholm; 2026. ISBN 978-92-9498-899-7;doi: 10.2900/3614787;Catalogue number TQ-01-26-044-EN-N © European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, 2026 Methods ECDC experts conducted a pragmatic assessment of the modelling evidence available at the time of writing. Giventhe rapidly evolving nature of the outbreak and the need to support situational awareness, a formal systematic orrapid review methodology was not used. The assessment drew on the authors’ participation in international modelling networks and communities of practice,discussions with subject-matter experts, engagement with modelling groups actively working on the outbreak, andmonitoring of publicly available reports, preprints, publications and technical outputs relevant to the ongoing outbreak. Models were identified through these expert networks and ongoing surveillance of the modelling landscape, ratherthan through a structured literature search. The assessment therefore aims to provide a timely overview of theprincipal modelling efforts known to the authors at the time of writing, including their objectives, assumptions, This approach prioritised timeliness and relevance over completeness. Consequently, the review may not captureall modelling studies or analyses available globally, particularly unpublished work or outputs released after thereview was completed. Results The results of this assessment provide an overview of international modelling work, with the following areas offocus: estimating current outbreak size, modelling risk of geographical spread, and scenario modelling and mid-term projections. Details of particular reports are summarised. Estimating current outbreak size The number of Ebola disease cases and deaths reported as part of the ongoing outbreak are likely to be anunderestimation of the true values. The relevant studies observed the following: •The MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London estimated that, as of 16May 2026, the true number of infections was between 1.2 and 2.4 times the reported case count [1].•The Epistorm group, led by Northeastern University in the United States (US) and supported by the USCenters for Disease Control and Prevention (US CDC), estimated the size of the outbreak around the samedate to be 1.16 (90% credible interval (CrI): 0.4–2.7) times larger than reported [2]. Below, we summarise the Epiforcasts study, as it was the only one with up-to