软件末日？复盘AI对软件行业的真实冲击

Software Apocalypse? Taking stock ofAI threat for software United States ◆We reviewedhard evidence of AI disrupting the softwaresector and seeno signs of material AI disruption Abhishek Shukla*, CFASenior Analyst, TechnologyHSBC Bank Middle East Limited, DIFCabhishek2.shukla@hsbc.com+971 4 5093343 ◆Market is likely overestimating the productivity boost from AItools, which is leading it tooverestimateAI risk to software Sameer Lam*Global Software AnalystHSBC Bank plcsameer.lam@hsbc.com+44 20 7992 3780 ◆We maintain Buy on major software names that have sold offon what we consider are unwarranted fears of AI disruption Stephen BerseyHead of US Technology ResearchHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.stephen.bersey@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 4153 No signsofasoftware apocalypse yet:We maintain our view that AI is unlikely toreplace software as explained in:Can AI replace software?(9 Feb 2026) andSoftware is already eating AI(26 Feb 2026). * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Software revenue growth remained strong in 1Q26 (median 12.7% y-o-y constantcurrency). Current remaining performance obligations also posted strong double-digitgrowth. Multiplesoftware companies (e.g. SAP, Salesforce,and ServiceNow)provided multiyear guidance and are generally guiding to continuation of strong Software companies aregenerallydownplayingconcerns about AI disrupting theirbusiness and are buying back sharesaggressively.If we leaveasideoutliers, total AI impact onemployeeproductivity low single-digit currently:AI-driven costsavings identified by software companies are at about5-7.5% oftheir existing costbase.We estimate AI coding tools have boosted productivity at IT services andsoftware companies by 100-500bp, at best.As the productivity boost is modest, there Enterprise software stocks oversold:Software shares have de-rated significantlyover the last 12 months on concerns that AI will disrupt their business. If we useconsensus estimates, major software shares are trading at c50% lower P/NTM non- Issuer of report:HSBC Bank Middle East Limited,DIFC Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Software revenue and guidance remain strong We have reviewed results, guidance, comments,and other actions of software companies in thelast few months to review our stance on the software apocalypse debate. ◆Software revenue growth remained strong in 1Q26 (median 12.7% y-o-y constant ◆Current remaining performance obligations growth remained strong. Adobe (13.1%),Salesforce (13.5%), ServiceNow (22.7%),andWorkday (15.4%) reported robust y-o-ygrowth in cRPO in the last reported quarter. SAP’s current cloud backlog rose 25% y-o-y cc ◆Total remaining performance obligations growth also remained strong. Adobe (13.1%),Salesforce (11.5%), ServiceNow (25.3%),andWorkday (10.9%) reported robust y-o-ygrowth in RPO in the last reported quarter. Workday’s growth of 10.9% was, however,materially less than 20% y-o-y growth it reported during 2024 and 9M25.Managementattributed it to a higher portion of RPO coming from renewals, which tend to have shorterduration than new contracts.Oracle’s(362% y-o-y to USD638bn in 2QCY26)and ◆SAP, ServiceNow, Salesforce,and Oracle have issued/maintained multi-year revenuegrowth guidance in the last two months. All of them are guiding to continued double-digitrevenue growth for several years. SAP, Salesforce,and Oracle are guiding to revenueacceleration, although Oracle’s acceleration is largely due to cloud infrastructure segment Companies reporting low churn Most software companies continued to reportlow churn. ◆ServiceNow reported 1QCY26 renewal rate of 97%, not far from 97.75% average over the ◆Autodesk reported net revenue retention rate of “more than 110%”, which was helped bythe impact ofthenew transaction model (we estimate lowsingle-digitpercentage). Thecompany continues to expect NRR to settleat100-110% as the impact ofthenew Salesforce has reported an attrition rate of about 8% for the last several quarters includingin 4QCY25. The company did not report attrition in 1QCY26 but called it “very little”. ◆SAP described its churn in 4QCY25 as “low”.SAP has historically talked about an annualchurn of about 3%. Other major software companies in our coverage universe do not report churn regularly No signs of pricing pressure There are also no signs of pricing pressure in the sector. In absence of better information, weare using non-GAAP operating margin as a proxy for pricing. Most software companies reported ◆SAP non-GAAP operating margin was up 276bp y-o-yin 1Q26. Thecompany continues toexpect that its operating expense growth over 2026-27 would be 80-90% of revenue ◆ServiceNow non-GAAP operating margin expanded 94