Blayne的字节：记忆思考、Vera的企业推动、半导体新闻

USA | Semiconductors Blayne's Bytes: Memory Thoughts, Vera’sEnterprise Push, Semis News Back from marketing, with readthroughs and supply-chain checks from acrossthe industry. Memory pricing continues to climb, with DRAM set to grow30%/40% in 3Q/4Q, while Apple publicly commits to price increases for the firsttime. We believe CPU prices are likely to rise by another 15-20% in 2H. As always, For thoughts on IDCC's DIS injunction award, IONQ's enterprise QKD push, RGTI's HPE seat, and NVTSas a beneficiary of Infineon's GaN IP win, see KG's Kernels section below. Thoughts on Memory – Demand Destruction Inbound:On Thursday (06/18), Apple announcedpublicly for the first time that it would be forced to raise prices on its products to offset highermemory and storage input costs. Our recent supply checks suggest DRAM pricing could grow 30%in 3Q26 and another 40% in 4Q26, as AI DC demand continues to overwhelm supply. Furthermore,NAND pricing also shows little signs of slowing, and investment here remains conversion-focused,with the first greenfield opportunities positioned for 2H28. We continue to like SNDK as NAND low/mid-end smartphones but would expect this dynamic to accelerate in 2H26. Note thatpricing of 8GB eMMC modules, popular in low-end smartphones, has risen from $1.50 at thebeginning of C25 to $30+ in the span of 18 months with no signs of slowing. As companies likeMTK/QCOM begin to relinquish capacity at TSMC (specifically N4), AMD looks well-positioned that supply checks indicate AMD’s positioning at 2nm for Venice remains very strong, with Consumer PC Headwinds Rising, Lunar Lake Remains a GM Question Mark– For INTC,management expects C26 PC unit TAM to decline low-DD % but this looks to be aggressivewith the potential for high-teens unit declines more likely. Lunar Lake represents a potentialGM headwind for INTC given they eat the memory cost. The Core Ultra 200B parts carry 16GBor 32Gb of LPDDR5X, which Intel procures and then packages, meaning the memory sits in Blayne Curtis * | Equity Analyst +1 (212) 336-7493 | bcurtis@jefferies.com Kevin Garrigan * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 284-2317 | kgarrigan@jefferies.comEzra Weener * | Equity Associate+1 (917) 344-1860 | eweener@jefferies.comCrawford Clarke, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 336-7399 | cclarke2@jefferies.com levies a marginal impact on the actual BOM of Automotive/Industrial products but a potentialconcern heading into 2H26 or early C27 would be memory availability/allocation. We wouldargue Automotive, given greater reliance on DDR4/DDR5, LPDDR, and GDDR faces greaterchallenges vs. Industrial, which is in line with our broader thoughts on Analog. Alex Fernandez * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8731 | afernandez1@jefferies.com Andrew Buller * | Equity Associate+1 (646) 352-5639 | abuller@jefferies.com NVDA Pushes into Enterprise CPU with Expanded HPE Partnership:On Tuesday (6/16), NVDA andHPE expanded their enterprise partnership by including the Vera CPU and Agent Toolkit for HPE PrivateCloud AI. Specifically, the Vera CPU, along with the HPE ProLiant Compute DL394 Gen12, will beavailable in C27. As we see it, this is the first strategic push by NVDA into the Enterprise CPU segmentof the market, which has historically been dominated by x86. NVDA’s strategy with Vera is coming JX Advanced Metal to Expand InP Substrate ~10x:On Tuesday (6/16), JX Advanced Metals (BUY,Carlos Furuya) announced a 120B JPY (~$750M) investment over next four years to expand InPsubstrate capacity by 7–10x vs F25 (Apr/25-Mar/26). This investment is broadly in line with capacityexpansion plans across the InP supply chain. For example, COHR is targeting a doubling of InP outputby end of year, with plans to >2x capacity again in C27, while Sumitomo Electric (BUY, Carlos Furuya)targets 2x capacity growth by F26 vs F25, followed by a further 1.4x increase by F28. We expectrobust InP demand to persist in the foreseeable future, although there is a potential risk of long-term TSMC CoPoS Pilot Signals Increasing PLP Push - Positive for Semi Cap:Recent reports indicateTSMC is now running a dual-track CoPoS pilot line evaluation with one line led by major global WFEvendors and the other by Taiwanese equipment makers. This is another data point highlighting a moreformal push toward panel-level packaging (PLP), a transition we have been highlighting for monthsand one that provides upside to WFE spend into the end of the decade. We continue to view CoPoS asthe logical extension of TSMC's roadmap, especially as PLP offers improved thermal characteristicsas AI accelerator power density rises. At the same time, the dual-track evaluation highlights growingcompetition across the equipment ecosystem, with both global and local vendors participating acrossdeposition, RDL, and inspection steps as TSMC builds out its supply chain. This is consistent with the Agentic AI Driving CPU Inflection - AMD Well Positioned with Venice and Improving Supply:AMD’s recent blog reinforce