全球奢侈品卡洞察 美国奢侈品信用卡数据一一5月表现稳健，两年消费趋势转正

Global Luxury Goods—Card Insights US Luxury Credit Card data – Resilient in May, 2Y spend turns positive CITI'S TAKE Thomas ChauvetAC+44-20-7986-4147thomas.chauvet@citi.com Monique Pollard+44-20-7508-0686monique.pollard@citi.com Inflationary pressures continued to weigh on consumer sentiment in May.The Conference Board index edged lower as weaker current business andlabour conditions offset improved income expectations, while UMichigansurvey softened for the third consecutive month. US consumers remainresilient, particularly at the higher-end, supported by wealth effects from Alberto Cecchetto+44-20-7986-5408alberto.cecchetto@citi.com General Description —Card Insights represent a selected subset of Citi’s credit cardtransactions and are not representative of Citi’s overall credit cardholder population.The data is highly aggregated, anonymized and should be considered in the contextof other economic indicators and publicly available information. All cards included Total Luxury Brands credit card rose 3% YoY in May, a fifth consecutive month ofgrowth, moderating slightly from +4% in April amid continued geopolitical andmacro uncertainty. This was achieved against a ~5ppt tougher comparative, with2Y‑stacked spend turning positive again to +2% from‑3%. The YoY deceleration wasdriven by slightly softer transaction values (ASP), though still robust, up mid‑teens,with transacting‑customer trends (volumes) broadly unchanged, down ~10% YoY.Inflationary pressures linked to the Middle East conflict continued to weigh onconsumer sentiment in May. The Conference Board index edged lower as weakercurrentbusiness and labour conditions offset improved short-term incomeexpectations. The UMichigan survey softened for the third consecutive month, withsharper declines among lower-income consumers. Overall, US consumers continueto show resilience, particularly at the higher end, supported by wealth effects fromrising equity markets and steady wage growth, but eroding savings rate. The 1Q26Luxury reporting season showed broadly stable QoQ sales growth (with the US stilloutperforming), on ~5ppt easier comps, implying a 2Y-stack slowdown across all The most US-exposed companiesare led by Tapestry, followed by Capri, WatchesofSwitzerland,Birkenstock,EssilorLuxottica,Cucinelli,Pandora,Ferragamo,Zegna, LVMH, Richemont, and Kering. Least US-exposed companies, in descending order:Hugo Boss, Burberry, SwatchGroup, Hermes, Prada Group, with Moncler the least exposed. See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. Credit Card Insights for US Luxury,Sporting Goods and Beauty Spend Demand resilient in May (+3% YoY) as 2Y-stacked spend turns positive The US economy was the second‑best performer among developed markets in2025, with real GDP growth of 2.2%,behind Spain at 2.9%. Australia ranked thirdat 1.9% annual growth. Over the same period, the Euro Area expanded by 1.6%,while Japan and the UK grew by 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively.US resilience haspersisted despite compounding headwinds:elevated post‑pandemic inflation, aprolonged period of restrictive interest rates, and significant trade‑policy shiftsunder President Trump’s second term. Over the past six months, the effective tariff Our outlook for the global economy continues to assume near‑trend growth at2.6% for 2026E, and global headline inflation to 3.5%, reflecting the imprint ofhigher oil prices and accompanying supply-chain disruptions from the Middle Eastconflict. The global economy remains in the jaws of a severe supply shock due tothe Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Even so, various real-time US consumer sentiment ended 2025 on weak footing and has been volatile in2026 to date, weighed down by federal government restructuring, tariff volatility,softening labour‑market expectations, and renewed geopolitical stresses. CorePCE inflation has been sticky above 3%YoY while core CPI has slowed below 3%, anabnormal divergence as CPI typically runs stronger than PCE. Headline inflation willcontinue to be strong in the near term as energy prices have remained elevated. We The US consumer continues to spend at a slower pace than in recent years, yetaggregate consumption shows few signs of faltering. Balance sheets remain generally healthy, though pressures among lower‑income households persist.These strains have been building for some time, even as this cohort has benefitedin recent years from very low unemployment and a tight labour market. Monthlypayroll job growth has been very volatile month-to-month but has picked-upslightly on a 6m moving average. The unemployment rate has increased gradually households has been supported by strong wealth effects from equity and homeprices.This dynamic should continue to provide support, as equity markets arethus far tracking gains seen in recent years, although the housing market appears US credit card spend forTotal Luxury Brandscard rose 3% YoY in May, marki