能源市场通讯第VII卷

India | Energy Energy Market Letter: Volume VII Daily ships through Hormuz have jumped to mid-20s recently from highsingle digits last week. Freight rates are up 8% w/w and could takesome time to normalize. GRMs declined w/w but remain elevated. OMCs'marketing losses have narrowed after the sharp fall in crude. Petchemspreads are up 135% since the start of the conflict, aiding Reliance's O2Cprofitability. BPCL and IOCL are beneficiaries of lower crude and elevatedGRMs. Strait of Hormuz shipments picking up:Commercial vessel movement has jumped 6x w/won average in the past seven days (Ex 2) and has reached mid-20s against pre-conflict levelof 120. About 800mn bbl of crude inventories have been drawn down since the start of theconflict. Freight rates remain elevated:Freight rates increased 8% w/w and are up ~3x since the startof the conflict (Ex 6). Freight rates could remain elevated in the near term, as supply chainsare expected to take time to normalize. Refining margins decline w/w but still elevated:Singapore GRMs are US$ 14/bbl over thepast week compared to US$5/bbl at end-February. Gasoline/diesel/aviation fuel cracks areprevailing at US$ 34/US$ 45/US$ 36 per bbl currently. We have noted ~3.4mbpd of refiningcapacity damaged since the start of Middle East conflict, i.e., 3.5% of global refining capacity.Normalization of supply chains is likely to take time, likely supporting elevated margins over1HFY27. US waiver on Russian crude expires:India's use of Russian crude increased from 34% inApr-26 to 38% in May-26 (Ex 13). The US had extended the sanction waiver on Russian crudeuntil 17th June, which has expired. Indian refiners are heavily dependent on the waiver tomaintain ~100% operating rate. Russian crude's discount to Brent increases w/w:Russian Urals discount to Brent increasedto US$ 15/bbl from US$ 14/bbl last week (Ex 14). Dubai crude at a premium to Brent:Dubai crude is at a premium of US$ 2/bbl to Brent (atpar last week). Marketing losses narrowing:OMCs are breaking even on petrol and making a loss of Rs 4/lton diesel based on 15-day average pricing (Ex 16). OMCs have raised retail fuel prices of petroland diesel by 8-9% since mid-May, helping bring down losses. Petrochemical margins up 135% since start of conflict:Two of the largest petrochemicalfacilities in Iran along with two of the largest facilities in Saudi Arabia have taken damages.Naphtha exports to North-East Asia from the Middle East remain impacted. Average petchemmargins (PE/PP/PET) are currently up 135% vs February-end (Ex 17), aiding Reliance's O2Cprofitability. LNG price declines w/w:Spot LNG prices prevail at US$ 16/mmbtu, -14% w/w. Domesticaffordability is stretched at current prices. LNG infrastructure damages likely to keep prices elevated in 2026:Key LNG infrastructuredamages include 12.8mmtpa at Ras Laffan Qatar and 28mmtpa of natural gas productionat South Pars Iran. Reports suggest Qatar LNG restart of 65mmtpa needs ~2 months, withthe balance 3–5 years, likely keeping LNG price elevated for longer and pushing out LNGoversupply scenario into CY28. Bhaskar Chakraborty * | Equity Analyst91 22 4224 6113 | bchakraborty@jefferies.com Aman Chowdhary * | Equity Associate+91 (22) 4224 6353 | achowdhary@jefferies.com Company Valuation/Risks For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300. Analyst Certification: I, Bhaskar Chakraborty, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies)and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendationsor views expressed in this research report. I, Aman Chowdhary, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report. Registration of non-US analysts:Bhaskar Chakraborty is employed by Jefferies India Private Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is notregistered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and thereforemay not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities heldby a research analyst. Registration of non-US analysts:Aman Chowdhary is employed by Jefferies India Private Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subjec