中国可再生能源：2026年中国太阳能新增装机预计160GW，2027年预计180-190GW

China Renewable Energy Expert Estimates PRC Solar Addition of 160GW in 2026E & 180-190GWin 2027E, vs. 317GW in 2025 CITI’S TAKEPRC solar supply chain continues to face downward pressure from oversupply-led ASP cuts. According to industry expert Ms. Peng Peng,General Secretary at China New Energy Generation Investment andFinancial Alliance, PRC solar capacity additions are projected to decline to160GW in 2026E and 180-190GW in 2027E, from 317GW in 2025. PRCsolar product prices generally dropped wow this week across differentparts of the value chain including (i) polysilicon amid high inventory, (ii)wafers, (iii) solar cells with margins at minimal profitability; and (iv) solarglass due to excessive inventory. We are cautious on 1H26E earningsoutlook for PRC solar equipment makers. In PRC solar and ESS sector, weprefer ESS makers like Sungrow and Deye with high shipment volumegrowth. We will host a business update call with Sungrow at 4pm HKT on25-Jun-26 (Thursday). Please email us (pierre.lau@citi.com) if you wouldlike to join. China Solar Sector Pierre Lau, CFAAC+852-2501-2716pierre.lau@citi.com Air Maair.ma@citi.com Tongwei capital injection into its subsidiary– On 23 June, polysilicon maker TongweiCo., Ltd. (600438.SH) announced plans to inject Rmb5.06bn equity into its wholly-owned subsidiary Tongwei Solar Technology Co., Ltd (unlisted). The entire capitalinjection will be added to Tongwei Solar Technology’s capital reserve, and thesubsidiary will remain wholly owned by Tongwei after the injection. The goal of theequity injection is to lower the subsidiary’s gearing ratio. As of the end of 1Q26, thedebt-to-asset ratio of the subsidiary was high at 101.24% while its owners’ equity wasa negative Rmb188m. N-type polysilicon prices dropped this week— The average market price of n-typegrade rod-type polysilicon declined 0.3% wow to Rmb32.6/kg in the week ended 24June 2026, and that of granular polysilicon was flat wow at Rmb32.5/kg in the sameweek. According to SMM, total polysilicon inventory at producer plants was 285ktons as of 18 Jun 2026, down 1.0% wow although it remained at a high level withample supply. PRC polysilicon manufacturers raised utilization of their productioncapacity during flood seasons for higher inexpensive hydro electricity generationwhile polysilicon demand was weak with little procurement suppressing prices. Both wafer and solar cell prices declined wow— Market price of n-type wafersdeclined 1.1% wow to Rmb0.87/W for 182mm products and -0.8% wow to Rmb1.17/Wfor 210mm products. SMM estimates China wafer production volume could increase+6.3% mom to 54.3GW in June. Inventory level increased 0.3% wow to 27.5k tonnesas of 18 Jun 2026. Average solar cell price this past week further dropped 2.5% wowto Rmb0.29/W for TOPCon products reflecting merely any profit. Solar module price stayed low— Average solar module price was down 0.2% wow toRmb0.72/W for 182mm products this week, while plant utilization remained low. See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations Not for distribution in the People's Republic of China, excluding the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and QualifiedForeign Institutional Investors. Distributed PV modules were priced at a range of Rmb0.74-0.77/W in the week ending Jun 18, according to SCI99. High inventory level for solar glass— Average solar glass market price continued to be flat wow at Rmb9.0/m2 for 2.0mmproducts and flat wow at Rmb15.5/m2 for 3.2mm ones. The industry-wide average inventory period was high at 51.4 days as ofJun 18. China operational daily solar glass melting capacity was flat wow at 81,350 tonnes (-17.8% yoy) as of Jun 18, accordingto SCI99. Source: SMM, Citi Research Ningbo Deye Technology(605117.SS; Rmb99.75; 1; 24 Jun 26; 15:00) Valuation Our target price for Deye of Rmb142.857/share is based on a DCF model, which we believe is a suitable valuation methodologyas we expect sustainable growth in energy storage demand from emerging markets, from current low penetration levels. Ourmodel incorporates our forecasts for cash flows up to 2035E and assumes a terminal growth rate of 3.0%. We apply a WACC of8.4%, derived from a risk-free rate of 1.6%, a market risk premium of 8.9%, and an equity beta of 0.9x. Our target price equatesto a 2027E P/E of 26.8x and P/B of 10.0x. Risks Key downside risks that could cause Deye’s shares to trade below our target price include: (i) lower-than-expected residentialand C&I energy storage demand in emerging markets; (ii) fiercer-than-expected price competition among inverter peers; and(iii) higher-than-expected trade tariffs against Chinese inverter products in overseas markets. Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ; Rmb154.8; 1; 24 Jun 26; 15:00) Valuation Our target price for Sungrow shares of Rmb168.0 is based on a DCF valuation, which we believe is appropriate because itcaptures the long-term potential returns of the company. We factor i