全球物流供应链脉搏检查：费率高企，需求坚挺

Supply Chain Pulse Check: High rates, unshaken demand Recent months have seen freight rates continue to rise, with ocean freight rates now morethan 100% above pre-conflict levels, driven by the conflict, capacity constraints and spikingdemand into quarter end. Air freight rates are also up 40-50% versus pre-conflict levels, withcapacity tightness from gulf carriers, and fuel surcharges. Volumes have remained resilient,with April ocean container volumes up 4%, in line with the upper end of Maersk's 2-4% full-year growth guidance, while air freight volumes have recently been running at 0-5% growth.Consumer demand appears to be holding up despite inflationary pressures and oil pricesremaining above pre-conflict levels, though easing. At the same time, ongoing supply chaincomplexity continues to support freight forwarders. All in, this creates a favorable near-termearnings environment. Alex Irving, CFA+44 20 7676 7044alex.irving@bernsteinsg.com David Vernon+1 917 344 8333david.vernon@bernsteinsg.com Antoine Madre+33 1 58 98 74 52antoine.madre@bernsteinsg.com Justine Weiss+1 917 344 8433justine.weiss@bernsteinsg.com Access our downloadable database here Data wrap-up.Ocean volumes were +4% in April. Versus pre-conflict levels, the SCFI iscurrently +134% and the WCI +109%. Chargeable weight, was broadly slightly positivein May and June, while air freight rates spiked by around 40-50% following the conflict.As a result, overall revenues grew by approximately 40% in May/June. April PMIsremainedexpansionary: the U.S. at 54.0 (+1.3), China at 51.8 (-0.4), and Europe at 51.6 (-0.6). Airfreight rates remain elevated.Airfreight capacity tightened at the start of the conflictbut recovered through April, May and June, becoming broadly stable YoY. Meanwhile, freightrates remain 40-50% above pre-conflict levels and have so far held at these elevatedlevels. Both DHL and IATA expect demand to grow by 2-3% in 2026, supported by AI,semiconductor and high-value electronics shipments. Tighter capacity, robust demand, andfuel surcharges are all placing upward pressure on pricing. Ocean: demand strong though H1.Spot rates spiked following the start of the conflicton higher fuel prices, and have risen again over the past month amid a demand spike, witha rush of cargo ahead of quarter end and coming higher surcharges. The WCI and SCFI arenow both more than 100% above pre-conflict levels. We see upside risk to guidance forMaersk at Q2. While this is a near-term positive for the industry, we remain cautious giventhe significant supply wave still looming on the horizon and potential demand deteriorationin H2. Spot TL rate ex. fuel YoY growth continues to surge mostly on supply-side tightness,some glimmers of hope on the demand side.Spot TL rate ex. fuel is +48% YoY so farthis month, up from +34% YoY growth seen in May and ~ +20-25% YoY in prior 3 months.While this has mostly been a supply story, there have been recent signs of demand uplift,e.g. multiple consecutive months of positive ISM manufacturing readings, better shippersentiment around manufacturing activity (likely bolstered by industrial activity like datacenter builds), and YTD total domestic intermodal volume turning to positive YoY growth(YTD ~ +1% YoY in May) for the first time this year. Still supply has driven the sizable rategrowth, with enforcing existing regulations (language, domicile, operating domain, hours ofservice, training) and higher fuel all factors at play. Issues are structural and bullish for U.S.surface transport rates. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS InEurope, we rate DSV Outperform, DHL and Kuehne+Nagel Market-Perform, and Maersk Underperform. InNorth America,we rate UNP Outperform, NSC Outperform, CSX Market-Perform, CNI/CNR.CN Market-Perform, CP/CP.CN Market-Perform,CHRW Market-Perform, JBHT Market-Perform, UPS Outperform, and FDX Outperform. EUROPE DSV (Outperform, TP DKK2,100.00) DSV is our top pick in European Logistics. This is principally becausewe see synergiesas inadequately reflected in valuations.DSV has a superbtrack record of synergy realizationin M&A across five dealsin the last twenty years, and weexpect it to repeat this successin its latest, largest deal for DB Schenker. Following theintegration, we see it as delivering post-synergy (2028) EPS of DKK 100+. Once leverage has returned to c. 2x, share buybacksshould restart; we see the company capable of repurchasing DKK24bn of shares p.a. in steady state, vs a current market cap ofDKK372,809m. Further deals also then become possible, and M&A ambitions remain at the company. DHL (Market-Perform, TP €44.00) DHL is really five logistics companies under a single corporate umbrella. Itsearningsare levered to ecommerce and world trade: c. 80% of EBIT to the former, 70% to the latter, and 60% to both. Around50% of earnings comes fromExpress: a healthy three-player oligopolywith supportive pricing and GDP-plus structuralgrowth (trade + ecommerce). Theasset-heavy natur