葛兰素史克（GSK）上调HIV相关盈利预期与目标价分析

Estimate UpgradeJustin Smith+44 20 7762 5899justin.smith@bernsteinsg.com Shan Mian+44 20 7676 8981shan.mian@bernsteinsg.com Maximilian Brewster+44 20 7550 2193maximilian.brewster@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Specialist Sales GSK.LN 2,825.00 GBp(2,630.00OLD) Christian Moore+1 917 344 8555christian.moore@bernsteinsg.com GSK (O): now a sustainable growth stock (post an HIV deep dive)? Post our HIV ‘deep dive’ we raise our adj. ‘26-35e EPS by upto 25%and now project growthevery year ‘26-35e (vs ‘ex-growth’ 32-35e prev.). Hence, our new adj EPSe are upto 35% >consensus (BBG). Our new adj. EPS CAGR (26-31e) of 9% is now ‘in-line’ with EU peers and,on PE30e (11X), our new £28.25 PT (up 7%) implies a 4% premium. But this all excludes the£7bn Nuvalent (M; Jeffrey Walch) M&A for which we project adj EPS accretion of upto 10%. Close Date24 Jun 2026GSK.LN Close Price (GBp)1,950.00Price Target (GBp)2,825.00Upside/(Downside)45%52-Week Range2,282.00/1,315.00EDME1,578.05FYEDecDiv Yield3.4%Market Cap (GBP) (M)78,906EV (GBp) (M)94,089 Why are our ‘26-36e group sales & adj EPS rising by upto 14% & 25% respectively?Post a ‘deep-dive’ into HIV (25% of GSK’s ‘25A sales) we’ve introduced estimates for 3key ‘long acting’ injectable (LA; quality of life ‘step-up’ vs daily tablets) HIV pipeline drugs:1/Cabenuva 4QM (3x/year; in ph3; 2028e launch; 80% probability of success (POS);2/Apretude 4QM (2H26 ph3 readout; 2027e launch; 80% POS));3/VH184 (in late ph2; 2031elaunch; 40% POS) is injected 2x/year, has the lowest economic payaways to Shionogi (M;Sogi) and a 2040s patent expiry (vs 2031 for the other two LA HIV drugs). Thus, we nowproject GSK’s adj EPS to grow every year ‘26-35e (vs ‘ex-growth’ 32-35e previously). Why are our new EPSe upto 35% > consensus?We thinkconsensus overestimatesthe 2031 patent expiry for cabotegravir (2G molecule in Cabenuva & Apretude) which isfar tougher to make than the bears think. Consensus under-appreciates the 1st-moveradvantage of GSK’s LA franchise in HIV treatment (88% of the $26bn US market in 2025) vsleader GILD US (O; Courtney Breen). Thus, we expect GSK’s US HIV value share to rise by 17points (to 44%) ‘25-40e despite GILD US still dominating HIV LA prevention (‘PrEP’). Why’s the GSK group risk-reward positively skewed?Our bull/bear analysis implies99% upside vs. 88% downside to 2035e EBIT (=DCF proxy). Of this, HIV accounts for 25%/-22% which includes1/VH184 becoming the best-selling US HIV drug in history (i.e. peaksales > Biktarvy (GILD US; Breen) vs VH184 not launching2/the PrEP market prevents allnew infections vs status quo3/the PrEP market expands 12X vs not growing ‘25-35e. Investment Implications How do we calculate our Price Target (PT)? What does it imply?Still via the average of(i)DCF (£25.76 up 10%; WACC 8%, terminal growth 0%; both unchanged) and(ii)’26-’28eEV/ EBITA (£30.74 up 6%; 5% EU peer premium retained). Our PT rises by 7% to £28.25and implies a PE30e of 11x for 4% premium to EU peers. On global large cap pharma 5-yearEV/sales regression GSK is an outlier at our new PT despite offering ‘in-line’ revenue growth. Table Of Contents Why are we Increasing our Adjusted EPS Estimates by upto 25%?.....................................................................................................................2Why do we Now Think GSK’s HIV Franchise is now Much More Durable?......................................................................................................... 4What new GSK HIV Drugs Have we Introduced into our Model?....................................................................................................................4Why are we Upgrading our GSK group Sales Forecasts by upto 14%?.......................................................................................................7What about GSK’s HIV Profitability?....................................................................................................................................................................... 10How do our Upgraded GSK group Estimates Compare to Consensus and Why?......................................................................................... 15What is Consensus Discounting for the US HIV Market? why do we Disagree?............................................................................................ 16What’s the Risk-Reward?................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18A 30,000 Feet View on the Risk-Reward:............................................................................................................................................................ 18Peeling back the Onion - What’s the Risk-Reward of GSK’s HIV Franchise?...........................................................................................22What’s the GSK Stock now Worth?..........................