中国钢铁分销商库存抽资停滞持续

Global Metals & Mining Steel distributor inventory drawdown stall in China continues afterhitting second lowest level in a decade Ephrem RaviAC+44-20-7986-2462ephrem.ravi@citi.com CITI'S TAKE Steel distributor inventories in China normally peak 2-4 weeks after theCNY holiday, drawdown sharply for 4 months, then go sideways till a smallincrease in early October before continuing to drawdown again until 7-8weeks before the next CNY. This year, CNY was on 17thFeb and inventory Wenyu Yao+44-20-7986-4551wenyu.yao@citi.com build cycle started in late-Jan. Inventories appear to have peaked 3 weeksafter that (in line with the historical pattern) at 15.4mn tonnes. This made2026 the second lowest peak inventory year in China (after 2025) in adecade. However, the initial rate of drawdown has been the weakest in adecade with inventories down only 17% in the 12 weeks after peak(compared to 27% average), the second slowest drawdown rate since 2012. Jack Shang, CFAjack.shang@citi.com Krishan M Agarwalkrishan.agarwal@citi.com Tom Mulqueentom.mulqueen@citi.com Inventories peaked at 15.4 tonnes in ‘26, 5% higher y/y, 22% lower than the 10-year average peak, and the second lowest peak a decade—Chinese steelinventories have a fairly predictable pattern - start building 7-8 before the CNYholiday, typically peak 2-4 weeks after the CNY holiday and then drawdown till mid-autumn when there is a small build around the golden week and continue to drawdown further. Lower the inventory level peak during the CNY, the tighter the steel Shashi Shekhar, CFAshashi.shekhar@citi.com Omnath Sinhomnath.sinh@citi.comKenny Xunyuan Hu, CFAkenny.x.hu@citi.com 2025 was unusual in that inventories picked during the golden week holiday, andthe peak-to-trough draw was only 34%— This compares to an average draw of48% over the last two decades and 54% in the prior year (2024). Shreyas Madabushishreyas.madabushi@citi.com Ijeoma Ihuegbuijeoma.ihuegbu@citi.com Rate of drawdown in ’26 so far, the slowest in over a decade— Looking at theaverages of the last 15 years, inventories are down 27% in twelve weeks after the postCNY peak (range: 12-46%). In 2026, inventories were down only 17% during thatperiod, the second slowest in a decade. Looking forward, the average draw is 31% insixteen weeks (range: 17% - 48%) and 48% to year-end. Anna Wanganna.d.wang@citi.com A normal destocking cycle would have distributor inventories at around 11mntonnes by mid-June— Distributor inventory this week was at 12.8mn tonnes. Weusually suggest investors keep these ‘markers’ in mind to monitor the progress of the See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. China Steel Distributor Inventories © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, Bloomberg If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONThe research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designated by “AC” in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple ACanalysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than(a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solelywith respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts orrating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the report IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Analysts’ compensation is determined by Citi Research management and Citigroup’s senior management and is based uponactivities and services intended to benefit the investor clients of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and its affiliates (the “Firm”).Compensation is not linked to specific transactions or recommendations. Like all Firm employees, analysts receivecompensation that is impacted by overall Firm profitability which includes investment banking, sales and trading, and For financial instruments recommended in the Product in which the Firm is not a market maker, the Firm is a liquidity providerin such financial instruments (and any underlying instruments) and may act as principal in connection with transactions insuch instruments. The Firm is a regular issuer of traded financial instruments linked to securities that may have been Unless stated otherwise neither the Research Analyst nor any member of their team has viewed the material operations of theCompanies for which an investment view has been provided within the past 12 months. For important disclosures (including copies of historical disclosures) regarding the c