在6月18日疲软及消费低迷后调整京东估值

JD.com (JD.O) Adjusting Estimates Following Subdued 6.18 and Soft Consumption CITI'S TAKE Followinga relatively muted 6.18 festival and reconciling from thedeceleratedtrend of May retail sales data by NBS,we revisit ourassumptions and adjust our estimates for 2Q26 and rest of 2026. We nowmodel total revs to decline by 4% yoy in 2Q26 reflecting weaker JD Retailrevs -7.3% yoy (vs -2.4% previously). While the high-base effect willgradually ease off heading into 2H26, we conservatively also lower our2026-2028Etop and bottom-line assumptions.With more rationalcompetitive environment for food delivery/quick commerce, loss ratio willlikely further improve though it will be partially offset by investment ininternational expansion. While our TP is unchanged at US$39, it is nowbased on 10x (vs 12x previously) rolling forward to 2027E. JD is currentlytrading at 8.2x/6.4x our 2026/2027E or 6.2x/4.9x on ex-cash basis, which Price (22 Jun 26 16:00)US$27.02Target priceUS$39.00Expected share price return44.3%Expected dividend yield4.1%Expected total return48.4%Market CapUS$33,728M Estimate revisions –We adjust 2Q26 total revs and non-GAAP NP by -4.3%/-6.6%to reflect muted 6.18 promotion and likely softer-than-previously expected 2Q26trend following softening retail sales recorded for May. For 2026-28E, we adjust ourtotal revs/NP estimate by -1.3%/-4.4%, -1.4%/-6% and -1.4%/-4.5% to reflectpossible pro-longed weak consumption sentiment. 2Q26E forecasts—We now model total revs of Rmb342.5bn (-4% yoy) vs.Bloomberg cons at Rmb342bn (-4.1%). We forecast adj. NP to +0.4% yoy toRmb7.4bn (2.17% margin) vs consensus of Rmb7.79bn (2.28% margin). We estimateGAAP GM, fulfilled GM and non-GAAP OpM of 16.49%/9.19%/1.34%. We modelelectronics products to decline 17.6% yoy to Rmb147.5bn and general merchandiseto +10% yoy to Rmb113bn. We model new business op loss of Rmb10.5bn. 6.18 wrap and May retail sales— JD wrapped up its 6.18 campaign with transactingusers reaching record levels and achieving strong growth in service categoriesincluding housekeeping, nursery services, and appliance installation services while Syntun forecasted GMV for ecommerce marketplace to grow at 0.9% yoy during the6.18 period and industry home appliance sales in May weakened to -15.6% yoy vs -15.1% in April while communication tools sales slowed to +0.7% yoy in May vs +6.2% Alicia Yap, CFAAC+852-2501-2773alicia.yap@citi.comNelson Cheungnelson.cheung@citi.com Vicky Wei, CFAvicky.wei@citi.com Revising Estimates Post Muted 6.18 JD 2026 6.18 wrap Record transacting users Shortly after midnight on Jun 19 Asia time, JD announced key performance metricsfor 6.18 campaign with transacting users reaching record levels as of Jun 18 23:59,driven by growth in service categories including housekeeping, nursery servicesand appliance installation services. Throughout the campaign, total time spent of Active brand participation During 6.18, the number of brands that released new products on the JD platformwas up 5x yoy, while the number of SME merchants participating in JD’s 6.18campaign grew by >62% yoy. >3,000 new merchants which participated in JD’s Category performance n3C:GMV of AI-related electronic products doubled yoy. GMV of high-endsmartphones and high-end laptops from brands such as Apple, Lenovo, Huaweiand Asus grew by 300%/100% yoy, respectively. As reported by Sohu News onJun 19 (link), Apple continued to top both GMV and sales volume rank on JD as of nAppliances:GMV of >1,800 home appliances brands grew by >100% yoy. Majorbrands, including Midea, Haier, Hisense, TCL, Gree, and Xiaomi, each generated>Rmb1bn GMV on JD during the entire 6.18 period. GMV of trade-in appliances nHome living:GMV of major home living brands such as Jomoo, Sleemon, Arrow,Chivas Regal, Opple, and Hegii exceeded Rmb100mn. nSupermarkets:GMV and user base of JD Supermarket both achieved double-digit growth. >1,000 brands on JD Supermarket achieved >100% GMV yoy nFashion:GMV growth of 42 fashion categories including male and femaleapparel, outdoor equipment, jewelry and accessories exceeded industryaverage. >2,000 fashion brands, including Uniqlo, Komfymed, and Lao Feng Solid momentum for new initiatives Jingxi, food delivery, and overseas nJingxi:GMV of Jingxi Self-Operated products doubled yoy, driven by 8-foldexpansion of top 10 categories. Order volume of Jingxi Shop grew by 50% yoy, nLocal services:On Jun 8, JD Travel launched pet tourism booking as China’s firstone-stop platform for pet travel. JD Food Delivery continued to partner with nOverseas:JoyBuy kicked-off its summer Black Friday campaign on June 15,driving record transacting users and order volume on first day. GMV of >800brands doubled vs. their initial on-boarding. Popular brands for European nHong Kong JD Mall grand opening:JD also celebrated the grand opening of theJingdong Mall physical store in Wan Chai Hong Kong on June 18, featuring30,000 sq feet retail space with notable international and Chine