欧盟家庭的未来：按家庭类型划分的人口分布预测

This document is a publication by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service.It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The contents of this publicationdo not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor anyperson acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. For information Contact informationName: Fabrizio Natale Email: fabrizio.natale@ec.europa.eu The Joint Research Centrehttps://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu JRC146503 EUR 40729 PDFISBN 978-92-68-39931-6ISSN 1831-9424doi:10.2760/1299066 Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2026 © European Union, 2026 The reuse policy of the European Commission documents is implemented by the Commission Decision 2011/833/EU of 12December 2011 on the reuse of Commission documents (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). Unless otherwise noted, the reuse of thisdocument is authorised under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence (https://creativecommons. For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not owned by the European Union permission must be soughtdirectly from the copyright holders. The European Union does not own the copyright in relation to the following elements: - Cover page, ©alphaspirit / stock.adobe.com How to cite this report: Querin, F., Bernini, A., Nédée, A. and Natale, F.,The future of EU households: projected populationdistribution by household types,Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2026,https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/1299066, JRC146503. Contents AcknowledgementsAuthors 1.Introduction4 2.Overview of the approaches to household projections2.1Propensity models 2.2Transition probability models2.3Dynamic microsimulations 3.Methodology3.1Cohort Simulation Model 3.2Data3.3Entry and exit rates calculation 4.Assumptions and limitations4.1Country-specific notes 4.2Comparability for older ages4.3Imputations4.4Sensitivity for entry-exit rates 5.Main results5.1Single-person households 5.2Living with a partner5.3Living with at least one child5.4Country-specific projections 6.Conclusions20 ReferencesList of abbreviations and definitions List of figures Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Fabiana Scapolo,Nina Kajander and Dario Tarchi from JRC E5,Riccardo Curtale (JRC B3), Elisabeth Joossens and the housing team from JRC B1, Mariangiola Fabbri(ENER), and Fabiana Pierini (EMPL). Authors Querin Federica1Bernini Alba1Nédée Astrid1 1European Commission, Joint Research Centre Abstract The results show that the share of individuals in asingle-person household is projected to increase forboth men and women. A first increase manifestsat younger ages, signalling a delayed or forgonefamily formation (especially for men). A second,more pronounced increase is evident at olderages, especially for women, who have a longerlife expectancy than men. Conversely, the shareof individuals living with a partner is projected Across numerous European policy fields,households are used as the reference analyticalunit. As household structures are evolving quicklyin the European Union, EU27 wide projections areessential for anticipating future impacts, such This technical report proposes a harmonisedmethodology to project how individuals will bedistributed across household types over the next80 years in the European Union. By applying aCohort Simulation Model to the EU Labour ForceSurvey, this study provides projections of the 1.Introduction at the individual level. For example, the severematerial and social deprivation rate (SMSD) thatis part of the EU 2030 target for being at riskof poverty or social exclusion (AROPE) includes6 deprivation items related to the individualand 7 related to the household(2). AROPE is alsoreferenced in the Anti-Poverty Strategy and A household is a unit characterised by peoplewho live together in the same residenceand share common arrangements, as well household may include either a single personliving alone or a group of people (not necessarilyrelated) living at the same address with commonhousekeeping (for example sharing at least onemeal per day or sharing a common living space)(1). Households form the foundation of daily life,where most care is provided and relationships Knowing the composition of householdsin the EU is key to several policy areas.Household composition and size are discussed and are built. Their structure directly influencesdemand for services, including housing, childcare,antipoverty measures, healthcare, and long‑term care. For example, older people living aloneoften require greater access to healthcare andlong‑term care services, while households withchildren place higher demands on childcare andeducation systems (European Foundation for theImprovement of Living and Working Conditions, inc