德国养老金改革拼图的下一个关键部分

Senior Economist+49-69-910-31815Ursula Walther revealed.Theexpertcommissiononpensionreformhasreleasedits33proposalsonhowtoreformandcomplementtheGermanpublicstatutorypensionsystem. Research Associate pay-as-you-go statutorypension system,like slowlyandmoderatelyincreasingthepension age (from67to67.5until 2041), limiting costly earlyretirementprogramsand raising the number of contributors by including self-employed persons.Theaggregate effect of all the proposals is a stabilisation of contributions to the PAYGsystem in the medium term(comparedto the status quo ante).The overallpackagehasbeenwelcomedbykeyGermanbusinessassociationsiandshouldcontributeto lifting sentiment. Senior Economist+49-69-910-31717 Second, we would like to highlighta more surprising and game-changing element.This is the introduction of a mandatory funded component, with 2 pp of grosssalariestobeadditionallyinvested inacentralizedpublicpensionfund (with somephasing in until 2031). This will eventually add up to EUR 35 bn in additionalinvestments into capital markets with no pre-defined asset allocation or countrysplit.Sweden's"premium pension"serves as a model here.Thus,nextto makingadditionalboosttoGerman/Europeancapitalmarketscanpotentiallybeexpected. With respectto timelines,there are twokey dates/points in time to watch.Allthementioned proposalsare subjecttopotential changes untilaformal politicalcompromisebybothrulingpartieshasbeenfoundonJuly1.Bothcoalitionpartnerspicking"ofcertainmeasuresenvisaged.The July1coalition committeemeetingistheself-setdeadlineforagreeingonan incometaxreform (seeournotehere)anda comprehensivereform ofthe statutorypension system.The second pointin timetowatchistheautumnlegislativeprocess,wheredetails ofthereformwill beironedout and (accordingtoanother self-set timeline)approveduntilyear-end. Below,we provide additional details on the main game-changing andsustainability-enhancing parts of the reform. Germany Blog inthepublicpensionsystemUpto2ppsofgrosssalaries(tobeequallysharedbetweenemployeeandemployer) aretobe invested in capitalmarkets sothat every insured person can benefitfromcapital market gains in the future. As a standard option,these contributions wouldbe invested with a centralized public fund.This could generate EUR 30-35bn ofcapital market investment per year. Sweden's"premium pension"serves as amodel.Alongside the overhauled private pension, this would generate anothercapital-market oriented element in the German retirement system. policymakers during the legislative process in autumn and duringtheimplementation: pp of mandatory contributions in 2028, rising to 2 pp by 2031. Initially, thiswouldresult inaboutEUR8bn in newmoneyinto capitalmarkets,doublingin2029toEUR16-17bnandreachingaroundEUR30-35bnby2031.Oncethephase-indetailshavebeenputintolegislation,volumeswillberelativelypredictable given the mandatory nature of the scheme, in contrastto thereformed privatepensionswhich requireanopt-in.Toputthefinal EUR30-35bn intoperspective: it would bea substantial number, but is likelytobesomewhatless thanthegross funds therevamped private pensionmayraise, which could amount to about EUR 50 bn p.a. Public fund administration.Germany does not have a sovereign wealthfund or public asset manager yet. Establishing such an"infrastructure",probably linked to an institution like Bundesbank,KfW or Kenfo,will beofthealready enactedprivatepensionreformtaking effect on January1, Assetallocation.Thepension commission onlyforesees"investment incapital markets", without specifying equities orfixed income. The split willdependonrequirementssetbypolicymakersduringthelegislativeprocessintroducingthisfunded componenttothe system,thecommissionaimstoraise the pension level in the longer term. To achieve the required returns(and follow the"Swedish role model"), a strong focus on the stock market(in contrast to e.g.government bonds) would be required. Total pension contributions. The 2 pp capital market investment will befinancedvia"additional contributions".However,the currentsetupalreadyenvisages contributions to the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system to rise fromtoday's 18.6% of salaries to a projected 21.8% by 2040.2 It remains to beseen whether the new capital market component will be sufficient toprevent any rise in PAYG contributions in future. Germany Blog pensionsystemTheaggregateeffectofalltheproposalsbelowisastabilisationofcontributionsto the PAYG pension system in the mediumterm (comparedtothe status quoante).Theoverall packagehasbeenwelcomedbykeyGermanbusinessassociations3and should contribute to lifting sentiment. to link the retirement age to life expectancy from 2031 onwards. If lifeexpectancyweretodevelopaccordingtothecurrentmedianassumptionsoftheFederalStatistical Office,it wouldmeanthatthe standard retirementagewouldgraduallybe raised by about sixmonthsfrom67to 67.5yearsduring the period between2031and 2041.Reintroduction of the so-called sustainability factor. This automatically dampens pension