英国脱欧十年：有韧性无复苏

Ten Years After Brexit:Resilience Without Revival Content Page 3-5Executive Summary Page 5-12 10 years since the Brexit vote: an evolving economic andenergy landscape Page 13-17 UK economic and energy policies in need of a revamp Page 18-25 The UK’s trade performance: goods importssubstitution, services trade powering ahead Page 26-29 Financial markets: unofficial dollarization and erodingconfidence but the City of London keeps (most of) its Page 30-17 UK private equity market has lost its magic, low techexposure prevails ExecutiveSummary •Brexit 10 years on: Neither collapse, nor renaissance.As the UK looks forits 7th Prime Minister in 10 years, this week also marks a decade since Brexitroiled markets and divided forecasters. Predictions ranged from economiccollapse to a renaissance. A decade later, we take a hard look at which Ludovic SubranChief Investment Officer & Chief Economistludovic.subran@allianz.com Maxime DarmetSenior Economist UK-US-Francemaxime.darmet@allianz-trade.com •Britain’s Economic Backbone: The knowledge economy, tech and cleanenergy.UK ICT exports to the EU have almost doubled since Brexit,demonstrating the continued competitiveness of Britain's knowledgeeconomy. The UK remains the world’s second-largest exporter of financialservices, accounting for 21% of global exports, while deepening its provisionof financial services to EU markets. In private markets, the UK continues toattract more venture-capital funding than any European competitor. Between Guillaume DejeanSenior Sector Analystguillaume.dejean@allianz-trade.com Dorian SimonInvestment Strategistdorian.simon@allianz.com •Burned by Brexit: Dragging growth, trade frictions and lagging Leavers. Independent studies estimate that GDP would have been 2 to 4% largerwithout the political instability and trade friction triggered by Brexit. Since2016, “Leave” regions have generally underperformed compared to the UK asa whole: 59% of the population of the ‘’Leave’’ areas have seen their regionsfall further behind national income per capita average. Since the vote andthe formal exit from the bloc’s economic structures on 1 January 2021, growthhas relied increasingly on foreign-born workers, which has fueled more than Jasmin GröschlSenior Economist Europejasmin.groeschl@allianz.com America Hernandez OrtizSenior Investment Strategistamerica.hernandez@allianz.com Patrick HoffmannESG & AI Economistpatrick.hoffmann@allianz.com Research assistants:Thomas LoubeyresRomain Poncet •A lasting lesson of the 2022 mini-budget crisis is that fiscal credibilitymatters.Investors now demand a structurally higher risk premium onUK assets against a backdrop of rising fiscal imbalances. Equity markets,where UK stocks have underperformed both US and European peers in thepast decade, reflect this premium. In private markets, the magic has fadedinto a priced-in discount. A decade on, Brexit's imprint reads through theUK's two largest private-capital engines, private equity and venture. UK •Beyond Brexit: Identifying and implementing solutions for the future.The UK scores high on business creation, labor-market flexibility, higher education and research, compared with many other advanced economies.This indicates that domestic bottlenecks — exposed by Brexit butnot caused by it — are the root of the country’s disappointing growth •Accelerating planning reform,•Increasing investment in housing and energy infrastructure,•Strengthening support for innovation and strategic industries,•Treating NHS reform as an economic priority, and•Addressing the slow diffusion of new technologies from frontier firms tothe broader economy. •A revamp of fiscal rules, combined with reforms to pensions spendingand property taxation as well as broadening the VAT base, would helpredirect scarce public resources toward deficit reduction and investment,with an eye to defense.Unlike the EU-27, Britain has staged no distinctpost-2022 rearmament inflection. The UK government has committed toincrease defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by April 2027, and 3.0% targetby 2030, but they are not set in stone. The cooperation map looks busy —AUKUS with the US and Australia, GCAP with Japan and Italy, a privileged-partner track toward the EU's SAFE instrument — yet it reads as a catalogof commitments rather than tangible delivery. Government investment 10 years since the Brexit vote: an evolvingeconomic and energy landscape This month marks 10 years since the Brexit vote andthe promises of greater democratic accountability,reduced immigration and independent trade policy.TheBrexit referendum took place on 23 June 2016, gatheringa high turnout of 72.2%, with 51.9% (17.4mn) votes forleaving the EU against 48.1% (16.1mn) for remaining.The Leave campaign was built around several corethemes and promises. First, sovereignty, or"Take BackControl": restoring the authority of the UK Parliamentby removing the influence of EU institutions and courts.Second, immigration control: ending t